Predicting ectotherm disease vector spread—benefits from multidisciplinary approaches and directions forward

The occurrence of ectotherm disease vectors outside of their previous distribution area and the emergence of vector-borne diseases can be increasingly observed at a global scale and are accompanied by a growing number of studies which investigate the vast range of determining factors and their causal links. Consequently, a broad span of scientific disciplines is involved in tackling these complex phenomena. First, we evaluate the citation behaviour of relevant scientific literature in order to clarify the question “do scientists consider results of other disciplines to extend their expertise?” We then highlight emerging tools and concepts useful for risk assessment. Correlative models (regression-based, machine-learning and profile techniques), mechanistic models (basic reproduction number R ₀) and methods of spatial regression, interaction and interpolation are described. We discuss further steps towards multidisciplinary approaches regarding new tools and emerging concepts to combine existing approaches such as Bayesian geostatistical modelling, mechanistic models which avoid the need for parameter fitting, joined correlative and mechanistic models, multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic profiling. We take the quality of both occurrence data for vector, host and disease cases, and data of the predictor variables into consideration as both determine the accuracy of risk area identification. Finally, we underline the importance of multidisciplinary research approaches. Even if the establishment of communication networks between scientific disciplines and the share of specific methods is time consuming, it promises new insights for the surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases worldwide.     

Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.     

Determination of set-back lines on eroding coasts. Example of the beaches of the Gulf of Lions (French Mediterranean Coast)

The study presented here describes a method for defining set-back lines along eroding coasts. The method (a mathematical model) combines the long-term shoreline retreat trend with short-term shoreline erosion (during storms). Simulations are carried out for 2030 and compared with the beach width to determine whether the shoreline is likely to shift onshore. The mathematical model is applied to the Frontignan and Carnon beaches (south of France). Both sites possess hard engineering coastal structures and downdrift erosion on the natural beaches. The set-back lines indicate that beaches with groynes are generally wide enough to resist shoreline retreat, while the downdrift “natural” beaches are not. We discuss the possible utilisation of set-back line estimations.     

Trace element contents in fine particulate matter (PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript>) in urban school microenvironments near a contaminated beach with mine tailings,Chañaral,Chile

Air quality in schools is an important public health issue because children spend a considerable part of their daily life in classrooms. Particulate size and chemical composition has been associated with negative health effects. We studied levels of trace element concentrations in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in indoor versus outdoor school settings from six schools in Chañaral, a coastal city with a beach severely polluted with mine tailings. Concentrations of trace elements were measured on two consecutive days during the summer and winter of 2012 and 2013 and determined using X-ray fluorescence. Source apportionment and element enrichment were measured using principal components analysis and enrichment factors. Trace elements were higher in indoor school spaces, especially in classrooms compared with outdoor environments. The most abundant elements were Na, Cl, S, Ca, Fe, K, Mn, Ti, and Si, associated with earth’s crust. Conversely, an extremely high enrichment factor was determined for Cu, Zn, Ni and Cr; heavy metals associated with systemic and carcinogenic risk effects, whose probably origin sources are industrial and mining activities. These results suggest that the main source of trace elements in PM_2.5 from these school microenvironments is a mixture of dust contaminated with mine tailings and marine aerosols. Policymakers should prioritize environmental management changes to minimize further environmental damage and its direct impact on the health of children exposed.     

Identification of sources of environmental lead in South Africa from surface soil geochemical maps

The bioavailability of lead in soil is of considerable importance to human and animal health. Although selective extraction has been explored as a more appropriate technique than total heavy metal analysis in environmental pollution assessments, such studies remain scarce globally and are almost non-existent in developing countries. Results for a large-scale study of extractable lead levels in undisturbed soil samples in South Africa identify several geographic areas of concern. Lead levels are considerably elevated relative to background levels in the Johannesburg urban and industrial area. Areas of active lead mining also exhibit higher surface soil values. Interestingly, areas of active and intensive coal mining activity display relatively low soil Pb values, possibly attributable to the relatively low heavy metal content of South African coal. In all instances, distribution of cadmium, a carcinogenic element, correlates with that of lead. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the quick and easy Mehlich-3 single extractant technique, an established technique in micronutrient studies, to simultaneously provide valuable environmental data for toxic metals such as Pb and Cd.     

Understanding the effects of rainfall on elephant-vegetation interactions around waterholes

The distribution of surface water affects herbivore-vegetation interactions in arid and semi-arid regions. Limited access to surface water typically results in the emergence of vegetation gradients around natural and artificial water sources. In particular, African elephants can create large-scale gradients of woody vegetation. Understanding the dynamics of these gradients is of particular importance for the conservation of other, less mobile herbivores that depend on woody vegetation in areas close to water. While rainfall is known to be a key determinant of herbivore-vegetation interactions in dry areas, we only have limited understanding on how it impacts woody vegetation gradients around waterholes. To address this problem, we developed a deterministic simulation model that describes the interplay of rainfall, elephants and woody vegetation in the vicinity of waterholes. The model is based on elephant telemetry data and the ecological conditions in Etosha National Park (ENP), Namibia. We found that decreasing amounts of rainfall led to an increased degradation of woody vegetation, which was particularly severe in areas close to water. Based on this result we conclude that low rainfall was an important driver of recently observed patterns of vegetation degradation in ENP. More generally, rainfall appears to be a key factor that determines elephant-vegetation interactions and thus dynamics of woody vegetation gradients around waterholes. Using long-term rainfall data from ENP, we also demonstrate that an increase in the number of water sources during periods of low rainfall can mitigate the destructive impact of elephants in areas close to water. However, more research is required to assess the sustainability and effectiveness of rainfall-adapted strategies of artificial water provisioning in more detail. In particular it is important to investigate potential effects on elephant population dynamics.     

Carbon dioxide capture with concentrated,aqueous piperazine

Concentrated, aqueous piperazine (PZ) has been investigated as a novel amine solvent for carbon dioxide (CO₂) absorption. The CO₂ absorption rate of aqueous PZ is more than double that of 7 m MEA and the amine volatility at 40 °C ranges from 11 to 21 ppm. Thermal degradation is negligible in concentrated, aqueous PZ up to a temperature of 150 °C, a significant advantage over MEA systems. Oxidation of concentrated, aqueous PZ is appreciable in the presence of copper (4 mM), but negligible in the presence of chromium (0.6 mM), nickel (0.25 mM), iron (0.25 mM), and vanadium (0.1 mM). Initial system modeling suggests that 8 m PZ will use 10–20% less energy than 7 m MEA. The fast mass transfer and low degradation rates suggest that concentrated, aqueous PZ has the potential to be a preferred solvent for CO₂ capture.     

Maize,switchgrass, and ponderosa pine biochar added to soil increased herbicide sorption and decreased herbicide efficacy

Biochar, a by-product of pyrolysis made from a wide array of plant biomass when producing biofuels, is a proposed soil amendment to improve soil health. This study measured herbicide sorption and efficacy when soils were treated with low (1% w/w) or high (10% w/w) amounts of biochar manufactured from different feedstocks [maize (Zea mays) stover, switchgrass (Panicum vigatum), and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)], and treated with different post-processing techniques. Twenty-four hour batch equilibration measured sorption of ¹⁴C-labelled atrazine or 2,4-D to two soil types with and without biochar amendments. Herbicide efficacy was measured with and without biochar using speed of seed germination tests of sensitive species. Biochar amended soils sorbed more herbicide than untreated soils, with major differences due to biochar application rate but minor differences due to biochar type or post-process handling technique. Biochar presence increased the speed of seed germination compared with herbicide alone addition. These data indicate that biochar addition to soil can increase herbicide sorption and reduce efficacy. Evaluation for site-specific biochar applications may be warranted to obtain maximal benefits without compromising other agronomic practices.