Application of an evolutionary algorithm to the inverse parameter estimation of an individual-based model

Inverse parameter estimation of individual-based models (IBMs) is a research area which is still in its infancy, in a context where conventional statistical methods are not well suited to confront this type of models with data. In this paper, we propose an original evolutionary algorithm which is designed for the calibration of complex IBMs, i.e. characterized by high stochasticity, parameter uncertainty and numerous non-linear interactions between parameters and model output. Our algorithm corresponds to a variant of the population-based incremental learning (PBIL) genetic algorithm, with a specific “optimal individual” operator. The method is presented in detail and applied to the individual-based model OSMOSE. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated and estimated parameters are compared with an independent manual calibration. The results show that automated and convergent methods for inverse parameter estimation are a significant improvement to existing ad hoc methods for the calibration of IBMs.     

Evaluation of filter-based aerosol measurements during the 1987 Southern California Air Quality Study

The Southern California Air Quality Study (SCAQS) was conducted during the summer and fall of 1987 to assess the causes of elevated ozone and suspended particulate matter concentrations in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Extensive gaseous (i.e. nitric acid, ammonia, sulfur dioxide) and particle (i.e. PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ mass, elements, ions, carbon) measurements were acquired for 11 days during the summer at nine locations, and six days during the fall at six locations. Outliers were identified so that they could be excluded from further statistical analyses. Carbon and elemental measurements were found to be negatively biased by 20% owing to inhomogenous aerosol deposits on the SCAQS filters and analysis methods which were applied to a portion of the filters. These biases seem relatively consistent, however, and should not affect conclusions drawn from data analysis efforts if they are appropriately considered. Significant fractions (30–60%) of ammonium nitrate volatilized during the summer when temperatures were higher. Less than 10% typically volatilized during the fall when temperatures were lower. Anion/cation balances support the accuracy and precision estimates of the nitrate, sulfate, and ammonium measurements. Coarse particle sulfate was generally low, while coarse particle nitrate was most pronounced at the coastal sites.This paper documents SCAQS filter-based aerosol measurement methods, and evaluates the accuracy, precision, and validity of the data set. Various comparisons were made for: (1) PM_2.5/PM₁₀ ratios for mass and major chemical species; (2) sum of chemical species versus measured mass; (3) sulfate versus sulfur ratios; (4) PM_2.5 particulate nitrate versus nitric acid-denuded nitrate; and (5) anion/cation balances. The measurement and evaluation techniques presented in this paper serve as a guideline for other data analysis and modeling studies.     

Effects of aeration method and aeration rate on greenhouse gas emissions during composting of pig feces in pilot scale

The aim of this study was to uncover ways to mitigate greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions and reduce energy consumption during the composting process. We assessed the effects of different aeration rates(0, 0.18, 0.36, and 0.54 L/(kg dry matter(dm)·min)) and methods(continuous and intermittent) on GHG emissions. Pig feces and corn stalks were mixed at a ratio of 7:1. The composting process lasted for 10 weeks, and the compost was turned approximately every 2 weeks. Results showed that both aeration rate and method significantly affected GHG emissions. Higher aeration rates increased NH3 and N2O losses,but reduced CH4 emissions. The exception is that the CH4 emission of the passive aeration treatment was lower than that of the low aeration rate treatment. Without forced aeration,the CH4 diffusion rates in the center of the piles were very low and part of the CH4 was oxidized in the surface layer. Intermittent aeration reduced NH3 and CH4 losses, but significantly increased N2 O production during the maturing periods. Intermittent aeration increased the nitrification/denitrification alternation and thus enhanced the N2 O production. Forced aeration treatments had higher GHG emission rates than the passive aeration treatment. Forced aeration accelerated the maturing process, but could not improve the quality of the end product. Compared with continuous aeration, intermittent aeration could increase the O2 supply efficiency and reduced the total GHG emission by 17.8%, and this reduction increased to 47.4% when composting was ended after 36 days.     

Leaching and degradation of S-Metolachlor in undisturbed soil cores amended with organic wastes

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Organic waste (OW) reuse in agriculture is a common practice fostered by benefits in terms of waste recycling and crop production. However, OW...     

Effect modification of ambient particle mortality by radon: A time series analysis in 108 U.S. cities

Numerous studies have reported a positive association between ambient fine particles and daily mortality, but little is known about the particle properties or environmental factors that may contribute to these effects. This study assessed potential modification of radon on PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm)-associated daily mortality in 108 U.S. cities using a two-stage statistical approach. First, city- and season-specific PM_2.5 mortality risks were estimated using over-dispersed Poisson regression models. These PM_2.5 effect estimates were then regressed against mean city-level residential radon concentrations to estimate overall PM_2.5 effects and potential modification by radon. Radon exposure estimates based on measured short-term basement concentrations and modeled long-term living-area concentrations were both assessed. Exposure to PM_2.5 was associated with total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in both the spring and the fall. In addition, higher mean city-level radon concentrations increased PM_2.5-associated mortality in the spring and fall. For example, a 10 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 in the spring at the 10th percentile of city-averaged short-term radon concentrations (21.1 Bq/m³) was associated with a 1.92% increase in total mortality (95% CI: 1.29, 2.55), whereas the same PM_2.5 exposure at the 90th radon percentile (234.2 Bq/m³) was associated with a 3.73% increase in total mortality (95% CI: 2.87, 4.59). Results were robust to adjustment for spatial confounders, including average planetary boundary height, population age, percent poverty and tobacco use. While additional research is necessary, this study suggests that radon enhances PM_2.5 mortality. This is of significant regulatory importance, as effective regulation should consider the increased risk for particle mortality in cities with higher radon levels.

Implications: In this large national study, city-averaged indoor radon concentration was a significant effect modifier of PM_2.5-associated total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality risk in the spring and fall. These results suggest that radon may enhance PM_2.5-associated mortality. In addition, local radon concentrations partially explain the significant variability in PM_2.5 effect estimates across U.S. cities, noted in this and previous studies. Although the concept of PM as a vector for radon progeny is feasible, additional research is needed on the noncancer health effects of radon and its potential interaction with PM. Future air quality regulations may need to consider the increased risk for particle mortality in cities with higher radon levels.     

Thermal destruction of benzene

The thermal destruction of benzene in methane/air flue gas is studied experimentally using an atmospheric laminar flow reactor in laboratory scale. The reactor is operated at four different fuel equivalent ratios (phi = 0.06, 0.1,0.5, 3.7), and temperatures in the range from 850 to 973 K and realises a residence time of 5 s. Stable-species concentrations are measured by gas chromatography (GC) and high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC), where phenol, acetylene, formaldehyde, acrolein, methane and acetaldehyde are the major hydrocarbon products besides CO and CO2. The augmentation of the temperature from 850 to 973 K increases the benzene conversion rate from 55% to 99%. The experimental results for one fuel equivalent ratio (phi = 0.5) are compared to the benzene model proposed by Emdee et al. (J. Phys. Chem. 92 (1992) 2151-2161). A fair agreement is observed for the benzene consumption and the CO production throughout the temperature range considered here. The small hydrocarbons are not very well matched, which requires further research on the sub-models. Our experimental results on laboratory scale provide a database for the modelling of benzene oxidation in waste incinerators.     

Retained nitrate, hydrated sulfates, and carbonaceous mass in federal reference method fine particulate matter for six eastern U.S. cities

Material balance of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measured with the Federal Reference Method (FRM) is developed for one rural and five urban locations in the eastern half of the United States using routine Speciation Trends Network (STN) and FRM chemical measurements and thermodynamic models. The Aerosol Inorganics Model is used to estimate retained particle bound water, and an ammonium nitrate evaporation model is used to estimate nitrate concentrations retained on the Teflon-membrane filter of the FRM. To address large uncertainties in carbonaceous mass calculated from STN carbon measurements, retained carbonaceous mass is derived by material balance between PM2.5 FRM mass and estimates of its non-carbon constituents. The resulting sulfate, adjusted nitrate, derived water, inferred carbonaceous material balance approach (SANDWICH) is compared with reconstructed fine mass (RCFM) using the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments monitoring program equation. For this study, the SANDWICH method resulted in approximately 21-27% higher sulfate mass and approximately 24-85% lower nitrate mass. The combined mass associated with sulfates and nitrates, however, are well within +/- 10% of the proportion derived using the more traditional RCFM method. The discrepancies between SANDWICH and measurement-derived carbonaceous mass vary from -21% to +56% on an annual basis and are attributed in part to urban-rural source influences and uncertainties in estimating FRM-retained carbonaceous mass.     

Soil compaction--indicators for the assessment of harmful changes to the soil in the context of the German Federal Soil Protection Act

Soil compaction in agriculture induced by large-scale equipment is of growing concern. Heavy wheel loads used in arable cropping have the potential to cause irreversible damage to the subsoil structure and may lead to harmful soil compaction. In order to sustain or improve soil health or fitness on a sustainable basis, indicators are needed to assess the changes in the soil structure and the respective soil functions. This requires an adequate verification of methods for distinguishing between the impairment of soil structure and the disruption of soil functions, and for the respective subject of protection. In this article the link between existing models of soil physical prognosis, practical guidelines, and criteria for the identification of affected soil structure is demonstrated, and a viable concept to distinguish harmful changes to the soil is presented. The concept consists of methods for soil physical analysis such as "pre-compression stress" and "loading ratio", practical recommendations for best management practice, and an indicator-based model for the identification of harmful subsoil compaction derived from a research project for the German Federal Environmental Agency, making it possible to determine for a respective location the required level of action far beyond the common practice of precautions against harmful soil compaction.     

Side effects of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bacillus thuringiensis</Emphasis> var. kurstaki on the hymenopterous parasitic wasp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Trichogramma chilonis</Emphasis>

Most of the detrimental effects of using conventional insecticides to control crop pests are now well identified and are nowadays major arguments for replacing such compounds by the use of biological control agents. In this respect, the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki and Trichogramma (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) parasitic wasp species are both effective against lepidopterous pests and can actually be used concomitantly. In this work, we studied the potential side effects of B. thuringiensis var. kurstaki on Trichogramma chilonis females. We first evidenced an acute toxicity of B. thuringiensis on T. chilonis. Then, after ingestion of B. thuringiensis at sublethal doses, we focused on life history traits of T. chilonis such as longevity, reproductive success and the time spent on host eggs patches. The reproductive success of T. chilonis was not modified by B. thuringiensis while a significant effect was observed on longevity and the time spent on host eggs patches. The physiological and ecological meanings of the results obtained are discussed.     

The greater snow goose <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anser caerulescens atlanticus</Emphasis>: Managing an overabundant population

Between the early 1900s and the 1990s, the greater snow goose Anser caerulescens atlanticus population grew from 3000 individuals to more than 700 000. Because of concerns about Arctic degradation of natural habitats through overgrazing, a working group recommended the stabilization of the population. Declared overabundant in 1998, special management actions were then implemented in Canada and the United States. Meanwhile, a cost–benefit socioeconomic analysis was performed to set a target population size. Discussions aiming towards attaining a common vision were undertaken with stakeholders at multiple levels. The implemented measures have had varying success; but population size has been generally stable since 1999. To be effective and meet social acceptance, management actions must have a scientific basis, result from a consensus among stakeholders, and include an efficient monitoring programme. In this paper, historical changes in population size and management decisions along with past and current challenges encountered are discussed.