Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Acute toxicity of aromatic and non-aromatic fractions of naphthenic acids extracted from oil sands process-affected water to larval zebrafish

The toxicity of oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) has regularly been attributed to naphthenic acids, which exist in complex mixtures. If on remediation treatment (e.g., ozonation) or on entering the environment, the mixtures of these acids all behave in the same way, then they can be studied as a whole. If, however, some acids are resistant to change, whilst others are not, or are less resistant, it is important to establish which sub-classes of acids are the most toxic.     

Trends of perfluorochemicals in Greenland ringed seals and polar bears: Indications of shifts to decreasing trends

Time-series of perfluorinated alkylated substances (PFASs) in East Greenland polar bears and East and West Greenland ringed seals were updated in order to deduce whether a response to the major reduction in perfluoroalkyl production in the early 2000s had occurred. Previous studies had documented an exponential increase of perfluorooctane sulphonate (PFOS) in liver tissue from both species. In the present study, PFOS was still the far most dominant compound constituting 92% (West Greenland ringed seals), 88% (East Greenland ringed seals) and 85% (East Greenland polar bears). The PFOS concentrations increased up to 2006 with doubling times of approximately 6 years for the ringed seal populations and 14 years in case of polar bears. Since then a rapid decrease has occurred with clearing half-lives of approximately 1, 2 and 4 years, respectively. In polar bears perfluorohexane sulphonate (PFHxS) and perfluorooctane sulphonamide (PFOSA) also showed decreasing trends in recent years as do perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) and perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA). For the West Greenland ringed seal population perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), PFDA and PFUnA peaked in the mid 2000s, whereas PFNA, PFDA and PFUnA in the East Greenland population have been stable or increasing in recent years. The peak of PFASs in Greenland ringed seals and polar bears occurred at a later time than in Canadian seals and polar bears and considerably later than observed in seal species from more southern latitudes. We suggest that this could be explained by the distance to emission hot-spots and differences in long-range transport to the Arctic.     

Principal response curves technique for the analysis of multivariate biomonitoring time series

Although chemical and biological monitoring is often used to evaluate the quality of surface waters for regulatory purposes and/or to evaluate environmental status and trends, the resulting biological and chemical data sets are large and difficult to evaluate. Multivariate techniques have long been used to analyse complex data sets. This paper discusses the methods currently in use and introduces the principal response curves method, which overcomes the problem of cluttered graphical results representation that is a great drawback of most conventional methods. To illustrate this, two example data sets are analysed using two ordination techniques, principal component analysis and principal response curves. Whereas PCA results in a difficult-to-interpret diagram, principal response curves related methods are able to show changes in community composition in a diagram that is easy to read. The principal response curves method is used to show trends over time with an internal reference (overall mean or reference year) or external reference (e.g. preferred water quality or reference site). Advantages and disadvantages of both methods are discussed and illustrated.     

A Rapid Method for Assessing the Environmental Performance of Commercial Farms in the Pampas of Argentina

The generation of reliable updated information is critical to support the harmonization of socio-economic and environmental issues in a context of sustainable development. The agro-environmental assessment and management of agricultural systems often relies on indicators that are necessary to make sound decisions. This work aims to provide an approach to (a) assess the environmental performance of commercial farms in the Pampas of Argentina, and (b) propose a methodological framework to calculate environmental indicators that can rapidly be applied to practical farming. 120 commercial farms scattered across the Pampas were analyzed in this study during 2002 and 2003. Eleven basic indicators were identified and calculation methods described. Such indicators were fossil energy (FE) use, FE use efficiency, nitrogen (N) balance, phosphorus (P) balance, N contamination risk, P contamination risk, pesticide contamination risk, soil erosion risk, habitat intervention, changes in soil carbon stock, and balance of greenhouse gases. A model named Agro-Eco-Index was developed on a Microsoft-Excel support to incorporate on-farm collected data and facilitate the calculation of indicators by users. Different procedures were applied to validate the model and present the results to the users. Regression models (based on linear and non-linear models) were used to validate the comparative performance of the study farms across the Pampas. An environmental dashboard was provided to represent in a graphical way the behavior of farms. The method provides a tool to discriminate environmentally friendly farms from those that do not pay enough attention to environmental issues. Our procedure might be useful for implementing an ecological certification system to reward a good environmental behavior in society (e.g., through tax benefits) and generate a commercial advantage (e.g., through the allocation of green labels) for committed farmers.     

SAOZ measurements of NO2 at Aberystwyth

We present in this paper fifteen years' measurements, from March 1991 to September 2005, of stratospheric NO2 vertical columns measured by a SAOZ zenith-sky visible spectrometer. The instrument spent most of its time at Aberystwyth, Wales, with occasional excursions to other locations. The data have been analysed with the WinDOAS analysis program with low-temperature high-resolution NO2 cross-sections and fitting a slit function to each spectrum. Because of a change in detector in May 1998 there is some uncertainty about the relative changes before and after this date, which are partially constrained by the results of an intercomparison exercise. However, the effect of the Mt Pinatubo aerosol cloud is very evident in the data from 1991-94, with a decrease of 10% in NO2 in the summer of 1992 (the SAOZ was located in Lerwick, Scotland during the winter of 1991-92 and observed very low NO2 values but these cannot be directly compared to the Aberystwyth data). To focus more on interannual and long-term variations in NO2, a seasonal variation comprising an annual and semi-annual component was fitted to the morning and evening twilight separately from 1995 to the present. This fit yielded average NO2 columns of 4.08 x 10(15) cm(-2) and 2.68 x 10(15) cm(-2) for the evening and morning twilight, respectively, with a corresponding annual amplitude of +/-2.08 x 10(15) cm(-2) and +/-1.50 x 10(15) cm(-2). Departures from the fitted curve show a trend of 6% per decade, consistent with that reported elsewhere, for the period 1998-2003, but in the past two years a distinct interannual variation of amplitude of approximately 8% has emerged.     

Hazard property classification of waste according to the recent propositions of the EC using different methods

Hazard classification of waste is a necessity, but the hazard properties (named “H” and soon “HP”) are still not all defined in a practical and operational manner at EU level. Following discussion of subsequent draft proposals from the Commission there is still no final decision. Methods to implement the proposals have recently been proposed: tests methods for physical risks, test batteries for aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity, an analytical package for exhaustive determination of organic substances and mineral elements, surrogate methods for the speciation of mineral elements in mineral substances in waste, and calculation methods for human toxicity and ecotoxicity with M factors.In this paper the different proposed methods have been applied to a large assortment of solid and liquid wastes (>1 0 0).Data for 45 wastes – documented with extensive chemical analysis and flammability test – were assessed in terms of the different HP criteria and results were compared to LoW for lack of an independent classification. For most waste streams the classification matches with the designation provided in the LoW. This indicates that the criteria used by LoW are similar to the HP limit values.This data set showed HP 14 ‘Ecotoxic chronic’ is the most discriminating HP. All wastes classified as acute ecotoxic are also chronic ecotoxic and the assessment of acute ecotoxicity separately is therefore not needed. The high number of HP 14 classified wastes is due to the very low limit values when stringent M factors are applied to total concentrations (worst case method). With M factor set to 1 the classification method is not sufficiently discriminating between hazardous and non-hazardous materials. The second most frequent hazard is HP 7 ‘Carcinogenic’. The third most frequent hazard is HP 10 ‘Toxic for reproduction’ and the fourth most frequent hazard is HP 4 “Irritant – skin irritation and eye damage”. In a stepwise approach, it seems relevant to assess HP 14 first, then, if the waste is not classified as hazardous, to assess subsequently HP 7, HP 10 and HP 4, and then if still not classified as hazardous, to assess the remaining properties.The elements triggering the HP 14 classification in order of importance are Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr, Cd and Hg. Progress in the speciation of Zn and Cu is essential for HP 14. Organics were quantified by the proposed method (AFNOR XP X30-489) and need no speciation. Organics can contribute significantly to intrinsic toxicity in many waste materials, but they are only of minor importance for the assessment of HP 14 as the metal concentrations are the main HP 14 classifiers. Organic compounds are however responsible for other toxicological characteristics (hormone disturbance, genotoxicity, reprotoxicity…) and shall be taken into account when the waste is not HP 14 classified.     

An investigation on the fuel savings potential of hybrid hydraulic refuse collection vehicles

Refuse trucks play an important role in the waste collection process. Due to their typical driving cycle, these vehicles are characterized by large fuel consumption, which strongly affects the overall waste disposal costs. Hybrid hydraulic refuse vehicles offer an interesting alternative to conventional diesel trucks, because they are able to recuperate, store and reuse braking energy. However, the expected fuel savings can vary strongly depending on the driving cycle and the operational mode. Therefore, in order to assess the possible fuel savings, a typical driving cycle was measured in a conventional vehicle run by the waste authority of the City of Stuttgart, and a dynamical model of the considered vehicle was built up. Based on the measured driving cycle and the vehicle model including the hybrid powertrain components, simulations for both the conventional and the hybrid vehicle were performed. Fuel consumption results that indicate savings of about 20% are presented and analyzed in order to evaluate the benefit of hybrid hydraulic vehicles used for refuse collection.     

Serial Correlation and Inter-annual Variability in Relation to the Statistical Power of Monitoring Schemes to Detect Trends in Fish Populations

We studied the effects of inter-annual variability and serial correlation on the statistical power of monitoring schemes to detect trends in biomass of bream (Abramis brama) in Lake Veluwemeer (The Netherlands). In order to distinguish between 'true' system variability and sampling variability we simulated the development of the bream population, using estimates for population structure and growth, and compared the resulting inter-annual variabilities and serial correlations with those from field data. In all cases the inter-annual variability in the field data was larger than in simulated data (e.g. for total biomass of all assessed bream sigma = 0.45 in field data, and sigma = 0.03-0.14 in simulated data) indicating that sampling variability decreased statistical power for detecting trends. Moreover, sampling variability obscured the inter-annual dependency (and thus the serial correlation) of biomass, which was expected because in this long-lived population biomass changes are buffered by the many year classes present. We did find the expected serial correlation in our simulation results and concluded that good survey data of long-lived fish populations should show low sampling variability and considerable inter-annual serial correlation. Since serial correlation decreases the power for detecting trends, this means that even when sampling variability would be greatly reduced, the number of sampling years to detect a change of 15%.year(-1) in bream populations (corresponding to a halving or doubling in a six-year period) would in most cases be more than six. This would imply that the six-year reporting periods that are required by the Water Framework Directive of the European Union are too short for the existing fish monitoring schemes.     

Nitrogen and metals in two regions in Central Europe: Significant differences in accumulation in mosses due to land use?

The study was conducted to test the hypothesis that the regional variability of nitrogen (N) and metal accumulations in terrestrial ecosystems are due to historical and recent ways of landuse. To this end, two regions of Central Europe were selected for investigation: the Weser-Ems Region (WER) and the Euro Region Nissa (ERN). They were assumed to have land use-specific accumulation profiles. Thus, the metal and N accumulations in both regions were examined by means of geostatistically based comparative moss analysis. The sampling and chemical analysis of mosses were conducted in accordance with the convenient guidelines and methods, respectively. The spatial representativity of the sampling sites was computed by means of a land classification which was calculated for Europe by means of classification trees and GIS-techniques. The differences of deposition loads were tested for statistical significance with regard to time and space. The measurement values corroborated the decline of metal accumulation observed since the beginning of the European Metals in Mosses Surveys in 1990. The metal loads of the mosses in the ERN exceeded those in the WER significantly. The opposite holds true for the N concentrations: those in the WER were significantly higher than those in the ERN. The reduction of emissions from power plants, factories and houses was strongly correlated with the decline of deposition and bioaccumulation of metals. As proved by the European Metals in Mosses Surveys, this tendency is due to successful environmental policies. But no such success could be verified by monitoring the accumulation of N in mosses.