Air Pollution and Mortality: Issues and Uncertainties

Abstract

Results from 31 epidemiology studies linking air pollution with premature mortality are compared and synthesized. Consistent positive associations between mortality and various measures of air pollution have been shown within each of two fundamentally different types of regression studies and in many variations within these basic types; this is extremely unlikely to have occurred by chance. In this paper, the measure of risk used is the elasticity, which is a dimensionless regression coefficient defined as the percentage change in the dependent variable associated with a 1% change in an independent variable, evaluated at the means. This metric has the advantage of independence from measurement units and averaging times, and is thus suitable for comparisons within and between studies involving different pollutants. Two basic types of studies are considered: time-series studies involving daily perturbations, and cross-sectional studies involving longer-term spatial gradients. The latter include prospective studies of differences in individual survival rates in different locations and studies of the differences in annual mortality rates for various communities.

For a given data set, time-series regression results will vary according to the seasonal adjustment method used, the covariates included, and the lag structure assumed. The results from both types of cross-sectional regressions are highly dependent on the methods used to control for socioeconomic and personal lifestyle factors and on data quality. Amajor issue for all of these studies is that of partitioning the response among collinear pollution and weather variables. Previous studies showed that the variable with the least exposure measurement error may be favored in multiple regressions; assigning precise numerical results to a single pollutant is not possible under these circumstances. We found that the mean overall elasticity as obtained from timeseries studies for mortality with respect to various air pollutants entered jointly was about 0.048, with a range from 0.01 to 0.12. This implies that about 5% of daily mortality is associated with air pollution, on average. The corresponding values from population-based cross-sectional studies were similar in magnitude, but the results from the three recent prospective studies varied from zero to about five times as much. Long-term responses in excess of short-term responses might be interpreted as showing the existence of chronic effects, but the uncertainties inherent in both types of studies make such an interpretation problematic.     

Daily Mortality in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area and Size-Classified Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

Time-series of daily mortality data from May 1992 to September 1995 for various portions of the seven-county Philadelphia, PA, metropolitan area were analyzed in relation to weather and a variety of ambient air quality parameters. The air quality data included measurements of size-classified PM, SO₄ ^2-, and H+ that had been collected by the Harvard School of Public Health, as well as routine air pollution monitoring data. Because the various pollutants of interest were measured at different locations within the metropolitan area, it was necessary to test for spatial sensitivity by comparing results for different combinations of locations. Estimates are presented for single pollutants and for multiple-pollutant models, including gaseous pollutants and mutually exclusive components of PM (PM_2.5 and coarse particles, SO₄ ^2- and non-SO₄ ^2- portions of total suspended particulate [TSP] and PM₁₀), measured on the day of death and the previous day.

We concluded that associations between air quality and mortality were not limited to data collected in the same part of the metropolitan area; that is, mortality for one part may be associated with air quality data from another, not necessarily neighboring, part. Significant associations were found for a wide variety of gaseous and particulate pollutants, especially for peak O₃. Using joint regressions on peak O₃ with various other pollutants, we found that the combined responses were insensitive to the specific other pollutant selected. We saw no systematic differences according to particle size or chemistry. In general, the associations between daily mortality and air pollution depended on the pollutant or the PM metric, the type of collection filter used, and the location of sampling. Although peak O₃ seemed to exhibit the most consistent mortality responses, this finding should be confirmed by analyzing separate seasons and other time periods.     

Statistical Considerations in Determining the Health Significance of Constituents of Airborne Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

Because of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) new ambient air quality standard for fine particles, the need is likely to continue for more detailed scientific investigation of various types of particles and their effects on human health. Epidemiology studies have become the method of choice for investigating health responses to such particles and to other air pollutants in community settings. Health effects have been associated with virtually all of the gaseous criteria pollutants and with the major constituents of airborne particulate matter (PM), including all size fractions less than about 20 gm, inorganic ions, carbonaceous particles, metals, crustal material, and biological aerosols. In many of the more recent studies, multiple pollutants or agents (including weather variables) have been significantly associated with health responses, and various methods have been used to suggest which ones might be the most important. In an ideal situation, classical least-squares regression methods are capable of performing this task. However, in the real world, where most of the pollutants are correlated with one another and have varying degrees of measurement precision and accuracy, such regression results can be misleading. This paper presents some guidelines for dealing with such collinearity and model comparison problems in both single- and multiple-pollutant regressions. These techniques rely on mean effect (attributable risk) rather than statistical significance per se as the preferred indicator of importance for the pollution variables.     

Analysis and comparison of inertinite-derived adsorbent with conventional adsorbents

To increase U.S. petroleum energy-independence, the University of Texas at Arlington (UT Arlington) has developed a coal liquefaction process that uses a hydrogenated solvent and a proprietary catalyst to convert lignite coal to crude oil. This paper reports on part of the environmental evaluation of the liquefaction process: the evaluation of the solid residual from liquefying the coal, called inertinite, as a potential adsorbent for air and water purification. Inertinite samples derived from Arkansas and Texas lignite coals were used as test samples. In the activated carbon creation process, inertinite samples were heated in a tube furnace (Lindberg, Type 55035, Arlington, UT) at temperatures ranging between 300 and 850 degrees C for time spans of 60, 90, and 120 min, using steam and carbon dioxide as oxidizing gases. Activated inertinite samples were then characterized by ultra-high-purity nitrogen adsorption isotherms at 77 K using a high-speed surface area and pore size analyzer (Quantachrome, Nova 2200e, Kingsville, TX). Surface area and total pore volume were determined using the Brunauer Emmet, and Teller method, for the inertinite samples, as well as for four commercially available activated carbons (gas-phase adsorbents Calgon Fluepac-B and BPL 4 x 6; liquid-phase adsorbents Filtrasorb 200 and Carbsorb 30). In addition, adsorption isotherms were developed for inertinite and the two commercially available gas-phase carbons, using methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) as an example compound. Adsorption capacity was measured gravimetrically with a symmetric vapor sorption analyzer (VTI, Inc., Model SGA-100, Kingsville, TX). Also, liquid-phase adsorption experiments were conducted using methyl orange as an example organic compound. The study showed that using inertinite from coal can be beneficially reused as an adsorbent for air or water pollution control, although its surface area and adsorption capacity are not as high as those for commercially available activated carbons. Implications: The United States currently imports two-thirds of its crude oil, leaving its transportation system especially vulnerable to disruptions in international crude supplies. UT Arlington has developed a liquefaction process that converts coal, abundant in the United States, to crude oil. This work demonstrated that the undissolvable solid coal residual from the liquefaction process, called inertinite, can be converted to an activated carbon adsorbent. Although its surface area and adsorption capacity are not as high as those for commercially available carbons, the inertinite source material would be available at no cost, and its beneficial reuse would avoid the need for disposal.     

The lanthanum precipitation method. Part 1: a new method for technetium(IV) speciation in humic rich natural groundwater

A new and quick method for direct speciation of Tc(IV) in humic rich solutions, based on the induced aggregation of humic substances in the presence of the trivalent cation La(3+), is presented. This method (the "La-precipitation method") allows flocculating all the humic substances and also the Tc(IV) associated with humic substances. The method is tested on solutions containing Tc(IV) and Gorleben humic substances. The influence of different parameters (humic substance concentration, Tc concentration, reaction time and pH) is investigated on the observed free Tc(IV) concentration after precipitation of all humic substances. None of these parameters had a (significant) influence on the observed Tc(IV) concentration in solution after addition of La(3+) to Tc(IV)-HS containing solutions. It is therefore proposed that the method can be used to separate the Tc(IV) bound to humic substances from the free inorganic Tc species in solution.     

Restored Riparian Buffers as Tools for Ecosystem Restoration in the MAIA; Processes, Endpoints, and Measures of Success for Water, Soil, Flora, and Fauna

Riparian buffer restorations are used as management tools to produce favorable water quality impacts, moreover among the many benefits riparian buffers may provide, their application as instruments for water quality restoration rests on a relatively firm foundation of research. However, the extent to which buffers can restore riparian ecosystems; their functionality and species composition, are essentially unknown. In light of the foregoing, two broad areas of research are indicated. First, data are needed to document the relative effectiveness of riparian buffers that differ according to width, length, and plant species composition. These questions, of managing buffer dimension and species composition for functionality, are of central importance even when attenuation of nutrient and sediment loads alone are considered. Second, where ecosystem restoration is the goal, effects to in-stream and terrestrial riparian biota need to be considered. Relatedly, the effects of the restoration on the landscape need to be considered. Particularly, at what rate do the effects of the riparian buffer on in-stream water quality, biota, and habitat diminish downstream from restored sites? Answers to these important questions are needed, for streams and watersheds of different size and for areas of differing soil type within watersheds. U.S. EPA-NRMRL has initiated as research project that will document the potential for buffers to restore riparian ecosystems; focusing on water quality effects, but also, importantly, documenting effects on biota. While substantial riparian buffer management initiatives are already underway, the extent of landscapes that influence riparian ecosystems in the eastern United States is large; leaving ample opportunity for this suggested research to provide improved buffer designs in the future. The ultimate goal of research projects developed under this paradigm of ecosystem restoration is to develop data that are needed to implement riparian buffer restorations in the mid-Atlantic and elsewhere, especially the eastern United States.     

Soil washing treatability tests for pesticide-contaminated soil

The 1987 Sand Creek Operable Unit 5 record of decision (ROD) identified soil washing as the selected technology to remediate soils contaminated with high levels of organochlorine pesticides, herbicides, and metals. Initial treatability tests conducted to assess the applicability of soil washing technology did not effectively evaluate the removal of the elevated contaminant concentrations that were found. To further evaluate the applicability of soil washing at this industrial site, a second more comprehensive pilot-scale treatability test was conducted. Twenty-three test runs were conducted over a two-week period in late September 1992, using a pilot-scale soil washing device called the volume reduction unit (VRU). The experimental design evaluated the effects of two wash temperatures, two pH levels, three surfactants, four surfactant concentrations, and two liquid-to-soil ratios on the contaminant removal efficiency of the soil washing process. Site soils from layers at three different depths were used in the study. Results from the pilot-scale treatability test indicated that the VRU could achieve contaminant reduction efficiencies of 97 percent for heptachlor and greater than 91 percent for dieldrin in the uppermost contaminated soils (surface to 1-ft. depth). Residual concentrations of heptachlor and dieldrin in the treated soil ranged from 50 ppm to less than 1.6 ppm, and 6.8 ppm to less than 1.6 ppm, respectively. However, the analytical method detection limit of 1.6 ppm was not low enough to provide residual concentration data at the risk-based action levels of 0.55 ppm for heptachlor and 0.15 ppm for dieldrin.     

Agricultural land evaluation and site assessment in the United States: An introduction

The US Soil Conservation Service has developed an agricultural land evaluation and site assessment (LESA) system. The LESA system is being used by the US Department of Agriculture and other federal agencies to implement the Farmland Protection Policy Act of 1981. The LESA system and three case studies from the Pacific North-west are introduced in this article.Scientific Paper no. 7166, College of Agriculture and Home Economics Research Paper. Washington State University, Pullman, Washington. Project no. 0010.     

Configuration of a functional department: A study of contextual and structural variables

This study investigates whether departments performing the same functions in different firms incur similar changes in structural configuration in response to industry-wide stimuli. Based on the proposition that the context of functional departments is similar across firms, changes in differentiation, integration, and perspective are hypothesized. Managers' perceptions of the validity of a series of statements to conditions five to 10 years ago and to present conditions are contrasted and show statistically significant shifts in these structural configurations. This change is confirmed by the analysis of responses of other managers in different departments within the same firms. Correlation analysis shows significant agreement among alternative measures of the same aspects of structure, and significant comovement among different structural dimensions. The later result supports the quantum theory of organizations.