Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach

To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scenarios were constructed that took economic, political, technical, and environmental factors into account. With the scenarios as a starting point future challenges were discussed and research issues and questions were identified in an interactive process with stakeholders and researchers. Based on the outcome of this process, six socioeconomic and biophysical overarching challenges for future agricultural were formulated and related research issues identified. The outcome was compared with research priorities generated in five other research programs. In comparison, our research questions focus more on societal values and the role of consumers in influencing agricultural production, as well as on policy formulation and resolving conflicting goals, areas that are presently under-represented in agricultural research. The partly new and more interdisciplinary research priorities identified in Future Agriculture compared to other programs analyzed are likely a result of the methodological approach used, combining scenarios and interaction between stakeholders and researchers.     

Identifying the role of conservation biology for solving the environmental crisis

Humans are altering their living environment to an extent that could cause environmental collapse. Promoting change into environmental sustainability is therefore urgent. Despite a rapid expansion in conservation biology, appreciation of underlying causes and identification of long-term solutions have largely been lacking. I summarized knowledge regarding the environmental crisis, and argue that the most important contributions toward solutions come from economy, political sciences, and psychology. Roles of conservation biology include providing environmental protection until sustainable solutions have been found, evaluating the effectiveness of implemented solutions, and providing societies with information necessary to align effectively with environmental values. Because of the potential disciplinary discrepancy between finding long-term solutions and short-term protection, we may face critical trade-offs between allocations of resources toward achieving sustainability. Since biological knowledge is required for such trade-offs, an additional role for conservation biologists may be to provide guidance toward finding optimal strategies in such trade-offs.     

Modeling the Baltic Sea eutrophication in a decision support system

SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary Baltic Long-Term Large-Scale) is a model of the coupled nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. This model has been developed as an integral part of the decision support system Marine Research on Eutrophication's Nest with the overall aim to evaluate management options for reducing Baltic Sea eutrophication. Simulated nutrient and oxygen concentrations as well as transport flows and major biogeochemical fluxes can be analyzed in many different ways, including construction of detailed nutrient budgets and tracing the fate of nutrient inputs. The large amounts of data that exist for this sea makes it possible to validate model results with observations. Major biogeochemical properties of the Baltic Sea are discussed through an analyses of model sensitivity to external forcing and internal parameterizations. Model results emphasize two features that are especially important for ecosystem management: i) impacts of local measures would always be modified by the long-range transports from other regions and ii) the response to significant changes in loads would only be seen after several decades.     

Internal ecosystem feedbacks enhance nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria blooms and complicate management in the Baltic Sea

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea has potentially increased the frequency and magnitude of cyanobacteria blooms. Eutrophication leads to increased sedimentation of organic material, increasing the extent of anoxic bottoms and subsequently increasing the internal phosphorus loading. In addition, the hypoxic water volume displays a negative relationship with the total dissolved inorganic nitrogen pool, suggesting greater overall nitrogen removal with increased hypoxia. Enhanced internal loading of phosphorus and the removal of dissolved inorganic nitrogen leads to lower nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, which are one of the main factors promoting nitrogenfixing cyanobacteria blooms. Because cyanobacteria blooms in the open waters of the Baltic Sea seem to be strongly regulated by internal processes, the effects of external nutrient reductions are scale-dependent. During longer time scales, reductions in external phosphorus load may reduce cyanobacteria blooms; however, on shorter time scales the internal phosphorus loading can counteract external phosphorus reductions. The coupled processes inducing internal loading, nitrogen removal, and the prevalence of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria can qualitatively be described as a potentially self-sustaining "vicious circle." To effectively reduce cyanobacteria blooms and overall signs of eutrophication, reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus external loads appear essential.     

Environmental Information Management in Municipalities

This paper presents results from a study on the present needs for and management of environmental information in three Swedish municipalities. It was found that there are considerable differences between the municipalities studied, regarding needs for environmental information as well as approaches and tools used for providing the information needed—differences that seem closely related to the structures of the municipalities. The paper ends with a discussion on some general requirements for municipal environmental information management. Besides a need for analytical tools, it is argued that municipalities would have to pay more attention to political aspects of the environmental situation in environmental decision making, and thus in environmental information management.     

Protected area characteristics that help waterbirds respond to climate warming

Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation-relevant characteristics to these responses is not well understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites’ conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late-designated N2K sites. Sites funded under the LIFE program had lower climate-driven community changes than sites that did not received LIFE funding. Our findings imply that efficient conservation policy that helps waterbird communities respond to climate warming is associated with sites specifically managed for waterbirds.     

Maintaining a neutral water balance in a 450 MWe NGCC-CCS power system with post-combustion carbon dioxide capture aimed at offshore operation

A post-combustion CO₂ capture process intended for offshore operations has been designed and optimised for integration with a natural gas-fired power plant on board a floating structure developed by the Norway-based company Sevan Marine ASA—designated Sevan GTW (gas-to-wire). The concept is constrained by the structure of the floater carrying a SIEMENS modular power system rated at 450 MW_e, with a capture rate of 90% and CO₂ compression (1.47 Mtpa) for pipeline pressure at 12 MPa. A net efficiency of 45% (based on a lower heating value) is estimated for the system with CO₂ capture, thus suggesting that the post-combustion CO₂ capture system is accountable for a fuel penalty of nine percentage points.The rationale behind the technology selection is the urgency of replacing the dispersed aero-derivative gas turbines which power the offshore oil and gas production units in Norwegian waters with near-zero emission power.As (inherently) fresh water usually constitutes a limiting factor in sea operations, efforts are made to obtain a neutral water balance to obtain an optimal design. This is primarily achieved by controlling the cleaned flue gas temperature at the top of the absorber column.