A comparison of nonlinear regression and neural network models for ground-level ozone forecasting

A hybrid nonlinear regression (NLR) model and a neural network (NN) model, each designed to forecast next-day maximum 1-hr average ground-level O3 concentrations in Louisville, KY, were compared for two O3 seasons--1998 and 1999. The model predictions were compared for the forecast mode, using forecasted meteorological data as input, and for the hindcast mode, using observed meteorological data as input. The two models performed nearly the same in the forecast mode. For the two seasons combined, the mean absolute forecast error was 12.5 ppb for the NLR model and 12.3 ppb for the NN model. The detection rate of 120 ppb threshold exceedances was 42% for each model in the forecast mode. In the hindcast mode, the NLR model performed marginally better than the NN model. The mean absolute hindcast error was 11.1 ppb for the NLR model and 12.9 ppb for the NN model. The hindcast detection rate was 92% for the NLR model and 75% for the NN model.     

Nitrogen removal and nitrate leaching for forage systems receiving dairy effluent

Florida dairies need year-round forage systems that prevent loss of N to ground water from waste effluent sprayfields. Our purpose was to quantify forage N removal and monitor nitrate N (NO3(-)-N) concentrations in soil water below the rooting zone for two forage systems during four 12-mo cycles (1996-2000). Soil in the sprayfield is an excessively drained Kershaw sand (thermic, uncoated Typic Quartzipsamment). Over four cycles, average loading rates of effluent N were 500, 690, and 910 kg ha(-1) per cycle. Nitrogen removed by the bermudagrass (Cynodon spp.)-rye (Secale cereale L.) system (BR) during the first three cycles was 465 kg ha(-1) per cycle for the low loading rate, 528 kg ha(-1) for the medium rate, and 585 kg ha(-1) for the high. For the corn (Zea mays L.)-forage sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]-rye system (CSR), N removals were 320 kg ha(-1) per cycle for the low rate, 327 kg ha(-1) for the medium, and 378 kg ha(-1) for the high. The higher N removals for BR were attributed to higher N concentration in bermudagrass (18.1-24.2 g kg(-1)) than in corn and forage sorghum (10.3-14.7 g kg(-1)). Dry matter yield declined in the fourth cycle for bermudagrass but N removal continued to be higher for BR than CSR. The BR system was much more effective at preventing NO3(-)-N leaching. For CSR, NO3(-)-N levels in soil water (1.5 m below surface) increased steeply during the period between the harvest of one forage and canopy dosure of the next. Overall, the BR system was better than CSR at removing N from the soil and maintaining low NO3(-)-N concentrations below the rooting zone.     

粉煤灰对烟气中CO2的吸收特性及矿物相演变机理研究

粉煤灰矿化CO₂是一种极具前景的减少燃煤电厂CO₂排放的技术.然而,目前还缺乏从矿物学角度对碳酸化反应机理的详细认识.本研究选取了3种粉煤灰开展碳酸化实验和矿物学研究,考察碳酸化过程中温度对碳酸化能力及粉煤灰矿物学变化的影响.结果表明,在任一温度下,BJ粉煤灰的碳酸化率均高于YA和LY粉煤灰,这是由于BJ粉煤灰中硬石膏、钙铁石和无定形相等活性矿物相含量较高,LY粉煤灰缺少高活性的钙、镁结晶相.对YA粉煤灰而言,升高温度可显著提高透辉石、尖晶石、黑钙铁矿和方镁石的转化率.在碳酸化YA粉煤灰中同时检测出碳酸钙和碳酸镁/铁,说明除含钙相其他活性元素(Mg和Fe)也参与了碳酸化过程.因此,需要对每个粉煤灰原始材料的矿物学和操作温度进行具体的个案优化,以最大限度地提高固定CO₂能力和碳酸化率.结果还表明温度对不同晶型碳酸钙的形成具有重要作用.方解石在低温(40和80℃)下形成,而文石在高温(180和220℃)下形成.     

Avoidance of death and injury through mionitoring of dams and flood evacuation in Essex, Connecticut, June 1982

During a period of heavy ranfall in Essex, Connecticut, on 4th and 5th June 1982, dams in the town along the Fall River were monitored for signs of braks. The observation of water spilling over one of teh dams at 10 p.m. in 5th June ld to the decision to evacuate community rsidents. The notification and avacuation process was conducted by the cvolunteer fire department over a two-hour periopd. At 12.30 a.m 6th June, the upper dam on the Fall River gave way, rsulting in a rapidly moving floodwave which sequentially destroyed four additional dams along the river. Although there was extensive property damage, gthere were no serious injuries and no deaths. The responsible actons of the town officials in monitoring the dams during the period of heavy rainfall permitted the evacuation order to be given in sufficient time to evacuate the residnts. The success of the evacuation was the result of good communication, trust, and co-operation between town officials and the community.     

Improving sustainability through effective reuse of product returns: minimizing waste in a batch blending process environment

A case study of a successful reuse program in a batch blending production environment is presented. This program involves not only addressing the company's own potential waste, but also working with distributors and customers to take back and reuse product, thus eliminating the customers' burden of disposal. Implications of the program for downstream supply chain partners are identified and a structured approach for implementation is presented. Modification for use in similar production environments is possible, enhancing sustainability, while providing environmental as well as economic benefits.     

RUNOFF MODELING OF A MOUNTAINOUS CATCHMENT USING TOPMODEL: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The rainfall‐runoff response of the Tygarts Creek Catchment in eastern Kentucky is studied using TOPMODEL, a hydrologic model that simulates runoff at the catchment outlet based on the concepts of saturation excess overland flow and subsurface flow. Unlike the traditional application of this model to continuous rainfall‐runoff data, the use of TOPMOEL in single event runoff modeling, specifically floods, is explored here. TOPMODEL utilizes a topographic index as an indicator of the likely spatial distribution of rainfall excess generation in the catchment. The topographic index values within the catchment are determined using the digital terrain analysis procedures in conjunction with digital elevation model (DEM) data. Select parameters in TOPMODEL are calibrated using an iterative procedure to obtain the best‐fit runoff hydrograph. The calibrated parameters are the surface transmissivity, T_O, the transmissivity decay parameter, m, and the initial moisture deficit in the root zone, S_r0. These parameters are calibrated using three storm events and verified using three additional storm events. Overall, the calibration results obtained in this study are in general agreement with the results documented from previous studies using TOPMODEL. However, the parameter values did not perform well during the verification phase of this study.     

Identifying correlates of success and failure of native freshwater fish reintroductions

Reintroduction of imperiled native freshwater fish is becoming an increasingly important conservation tool amidst persistent anthropogenic pressures and new threats related to climate change. We summarized trends in native fish reintroductions in the current literature, identified predictors of reintroduction outcome, and devised recommendations for managers attempting future native fish reintroductions. We constructed random forest classifications using data from 260 published case studies of native fish reintroductions to estimate the effectiveness of variables in predicting reintroduction outcome. The outcome of each case was assigned as a success or failure on the basis of the author's perception of the outcome and on whether or not survival, spawning, or recruitment were documented during post‐reintroduction monitoring. Inadequately addressing the initial cause of decline was the best predictor of reintroduction failure. Variables associated with habitat (e.g., water quality, prey availability) were also good predictors of reintroduction outcomes, followed by variables associated with stocking (e.g., genetic diversity of stock source, duration of stocking event). Consideration of these variables by managers during the planning process may increase the likelihood for successful outcomes in future reintroduction attempts of native freshwater fish. Identificación de Correlaciones de Éxito y Fracaso de Reintroducciones de Peces de Nativos Agua Dulce     

Dioxin and furan residues in wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) following a large scale polyvinyl chloride (PVC) fire

A forest ecosystem was contaminated as a result of a fire involving 600 t of PVC. A wide range of 2,3,7,8-substituted dioxin and furan congeners were elevated (by up to 4-fold) on soil adjacent to the factory compared to a site 200 m from the factory perimeter. Livers of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) caught on these areas were also analysed for dioxins and furans. Toxic equivalents (TEQs) were 9-fold higher in wood mice caught on the site 10 m from the factory perimeter compared with the site 200 m from the perimeter, with individual 2,3,7,8-substituted congeners being elevated by up to 30-fold. Wood mouse liver TEQs were found to be highly correlated with cadmium kidney concentrations, cadmium also being found at elevated concentrations at the accident site. There was also a significant positive correlation between wood mouse liver TEQs and relative liver weights (wet weights expressed as a percentage of total body weight). The results of this study are discussed in the wider context of dioxin contamination in the environment.     

HYDROLOGIC BALANCE OF LAKE CHAPALA (MEXICO)1

ABSTRACT: Lake Chapala, whose primary tributary is the Río Lerma, is the largest freshwater lake in Mexico and for the past 95 years has maintained an average storage capacity close to 6,700 Mm³. Starting hi the early 1970s, the Lerma-Chapala basin rapidly industrialized. In response to these upstream anthropogenic activities, the fisheries, aesthetics, and water quality of Lake Chapala have decreased as a consequence of the increasing chemical and biologic pollutants mainly from the Río Lerma. Additionally, the growth of Guadalajara has resulted in increasing potable water demands on the lake to satisfy a population currently greater than 4.5 million. During the 1980s, the outflow and water losses from the lake substantially exceeded the inflow and other water contributions. In this paper, the recent behavior of the hydrologic and bathymetric parameters of Lake Chapala are summarized and some important physical stresses on the system are identified. The focus of this work is the 1934–1989 period, and it is shown that starting around 1980 some of the main contributors to the lake water balance were severely perturbed and the lake reached its second lowest recorded level. The disturbances of the system are so severe that the entire regional ecosystem could be irreversibly affected in the near future.