Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Modeling and interpretation of fiber orientation-based failure mechanisms in machining of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites

The development and implementation of a microstructure-based finite element model for the machining of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites is presented. A new approach to interfacial modeling is introduced where the material interface is modeled using continuum elements, allowing failure to take place in either tension or compression. The model is capable of describing the fiber failure mode occurring throughout the chip formation process. Characteristic fiber length in the chips, and machining forces for microstructures with fibers orientated at 0°, 45°, 90°, and 135° are examined. For model validation purposes, the model-based machining performance predictions are compared to the machining responses from a set of orthogonal machining experiments. A parametric study is presented that identifies a robust tool geometry, which minimizes the effects of fiber orientation and size on the machining forces.     

Automated micro-transfer printing with cantilevered stamps

This paper demonstrates the use of a flexible instrumented stamp to enable automated micro transfer printing as a route to large-area, deterministic assembly of microstructured device components or ‘inks’. The ability to instrument the stamp, a critical component for retrieval and placement of a micro device, to detect contact and monitor localized forces during critical events in the printing process not only allows for the development of a robust manufacturing process, but also for a unique vantage point from which to study fundamental issues and phenomena associated with adhesion and delamination of thin films from a variety of substrate materials. This paper presents basic design analysis on the requirements of the cantilevers for compatibility with a typical transfer printing environment. Off-the-shelf thin film strain gages are integrated with a thin elastomeric post as a preliminary prototype and the feasibility of transfer printing with it is demonstrated. Further, the set-up is calibrated to produce force signals for event detection and in situ diagnosis of the process.     

Prompting safety-belt use in the context of a belt-use law: the flash-for life revisited

PROBLEM: Safety-belt use reduces motor vehicle crash-related morbidity and mortality, yet an estimated 18% of drivers do not consistently buckle up (NHTSA, 2005). In 1985, Geller and colleagues developed an interpersonal Flash-for-Life prompt that increased belt use among 22% of 1,087 unbuckled drivers (Geller, Bruff, & Nimmer, 1985). METHOD: The Flash-for-Life intervention was re-introduced at a large university with high safety-belt use (i.e., 80%). College students stood at parking-lot entrance/exits and "flashed" signs with the message, "Please Buckle Up, I Care" to unbuckled drivers. RESULTS: Of 427 unbuckled drivers observed, 30% of these complied with the prompt. Male drivers were significantly more likely to comply with prompts delivered by females. DISCUSSION: Compliance was higher than in the 1985 study, indicating a high baseline rate of safety-belt use does not negate potential beneficial influence of a prompting intervention. This intervention is particularly effective with college-aged males, a sub-group of the driving population least likely to buckle-up. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: A simple behavioral prompt could be used at most industrial complexes to increase safety-belt use among vehicle occupants who are not buckled-up.     

Evidence for a male-produced pheromone in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tetropium fuscum</Emphasis> (F.) and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tetropium cinnamopterum</Emphasis> (Kirby) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

(E)-6,10-dimethyl-5,9-undecadien-2-ol (geranyl acetol), termed here fuscol, was identified as a male-produced pheromone emitted by Tetropium fuscum (F.) and Tetropium cinnamopterum Kirby. In field experiments, traps baited with synthetic fuscol alone were not significantly attractive, but the combination of fuscol plus host volatiles (a synthetic blend of monoterpenes plus ethanol) attracted significantly more male and female T. fuscum and female T. cinnamopterum than did host volatiles alone. This is the first homoterpenoid alcohol to be described in the Cerambycidae, and the first pheromone reported from the sub-family Spondylidinae.     

Last Glacial mammals in South America: a new scenario from the Tarija Basin (Bolivia)

The chronology, sedimentary history, and paleoecology of the Tarija Basin (Bolivia), one of the richest Pleistocene mammalian sites in South America, are revised here based on a multidisciplinary study, including stratigraphy, sedimentology, geomorphology, paleontology, isotope geochemistry, and ¹⁴C geochronology. Previous studies have indicated a Middle Pleistocene age for this classic locality. We have been able to obtain a series of ¹⁴C dates encompassing all the fossil-bearing sequences previously studied in the Tarija Basin. The dated layers range in age from about 44,000 to 21,000 radiocarbon years before present (BP), indicating that the Tarija fauna is much younger than previously thought. Glacial advances correlated to marine isotopic stages (MIS) 4 and 2 (ca. 62 and 20 ka BP, respectively) are also documented at the base and at the very top of the Tarija–Padcaya succession, respectively, indicating that the Bolivian Altiplano was not dry but sustained an ice cap during the Last Glacial Maximum. The results of this multidisciplinary study enable us to redefine the chronological limits of the Tarija sequence and of its faunal assemblage and to shift this paleontological, paleoclimatological, and paleoecological framework to the time interval from MIS 4 to MIS 2.     

Time allocation between work and recreation and the associated injury risks among young people

PROBLEM: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between overall risk of injury and time use patterns between work and active recreation among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using a representative sample of 9,795 Canadians aged 15-24 years, a multivariate logistic regression on the likelihood of any medically attended injury was conducted, including sociodemographic, individual, and time factors. RESULTS: Young people who engaged in a combination of high work and high activity hours were twice as likely to sustain a medically attended injury compared to those who worked low hours, but did not participate in any recreational activity. Those respondents who were not in school had a 43% increase in injury risk compared to full-time students. SUMMARY: Our findings suggest that injury risk was not a simple function of fatigue and cumulative exposure time. Our findings suggest the importance of considering time use and the associated injury risk tradeoffs. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Relevant to state and federal work safety policy makers, our findings suggest the importance of understanding where youth might otherwise spend their time if constraint were placed on their employment opportunities, and the associated injury risk tradeoffs must be taken into consideration.     

A direct observation study of nighttime safety belt use in Indiana

INTRODUCTION: Nearly all direct observation studies of safety belt use are conducted exclusively during daylight hours. Recent work has suggested that safety belt use at night may differ from daytime belt use. METHODS: An observational study of nighttime safety belt use, utilizing specialized night vision equipment, was conducted in Indiana surrounding the Click It or Ticket 2006 safety belt mobilization activities. A pre- and a post-mobilization statewide direct observation survey was conducted at night coinciding with daytime safety belt use data collection conducted by the state of Indiana. Daytime and nighttime belt use rates were compared. RESULTS: The comparisons across the mobilization period revealed a significant increase during the day, but a significant decrease at night. Comparisons between daytime and nighttime belt use revealed no overall difference during the pre wave, but a significant difference during the post wave. Finally, many common daytime trends in belt use were also found at night, with the exception of the typical age and seating position effects. DISCUSSION: The mobilization activities had a positive effect on daytime belt use, but no effect on nighttime belt use, likely resulting in the differences between daytime and nighttime belt use observed during the post wave. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings of this study suggest that safety belt mobilizations implemented only during the day do not influence nighttime safety belt use. Changes to how these programs are implemented or additional programs specifically targeting belt use at night should be considered, along with continued monitoring of nighttime belt use.     

Cranial shape transformation in the evolution of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca)

In this study, landmark-based methods of geometric morphometrics are used for investigating the main aspects of cranial shape transformation in the evolution of the giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca. Specifically, we explore if the highly derived cranial adaptations for bamboo feeding of the living panda were developed early in the panda's lineage. Results obtained show that the overall cranial morphologies of the oldest known panda, the "pygmy" Ailuropoda microta, and the late Pleistocene Ailuropoda baconi are both very similar to that of their closest living relative, A. melanoleuca, which agrees with a previous proposal based on qualitative criteria. However, we also describe several differences between the crania of A. microta, A. baconi, and A. melanoleuca, including the development of the postorbital process, the orientation of the occipital region, and the expansion of the braincase. As a result, the cranial morphology of A. microta shows a less specialized morphology toward a fibrous and durophagous diet compared to the giant panda. These results are confirmed by a comparative analysis of the dimensions of the upper teeth in bears, which has revealed differences in relative tooth size between A. microta and A. melanoleuca, most probably as a result of mosaic evolution. Therefore, we conclude that cranial shape did not remain essentially uniform in the Ailuropoda lineage, as previously thought, but underwent a number of changes during more than 2?Myr.