A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

A Model for Landscape Planning Under Complex Spatial Conditions

We present a new mathematical programming framework that is adaptable to a variety of spatially explicit landscape problems in environmental investment, conservation, and land-use planning, transport planning, and agriculture. As part of capturing spatial interdependencies, the framework considers decision variables at two levels, finely spaced grid cells and landholdings. We applied the framework to an environmental investment problem using objective functions representing biodiversity and carbon sequestration. We also tested the model to optimize the path of a road through part of the landscape. Using the Nambucca case study in eastern Australia, we applied a hybrid greedy randomised adaptive search procedure (GRASP) to find solutions to the model.     

Hydrologic–Economic Model for Managing Irrigation Intensity in Irrigation Areas under Watertable and Soil Salinity Targets

This paper gives mathematical details and sample applications of SWAGMAN Farm (SWAGMAN, Salt Water and Groundwater Management), a farm-scale hydrologic economic model that integrates agronomic, climatic, irrigation, hydrogeological and economic aspects of irrigated agriculture. The model is capable of determining optimum mix of land use to keep watertable and soil salinity within acceptable limits while maximising the economic returns. Alternatively, the model can simulate water and salt balance and economics of a given cropping preference. Web-based and Geographic Information Systems versions of the model are available for integration with the environmental reporting systems of the irrigation areas.     

Development and Parameterization of a Rain- and Fire-driven Model for Exploring Elephant Effects in African Savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree–grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation.     

Cross-border response of mosses to heavy metal atmospheric deposition in Southeastern Bulgaria and European Turkey

First cross-border atmospheric pollution of 11 heavy metals and toxic elements assessed by Hypnum cupressiforme was reported for a part of Southeastern Europe (Southeastern Bulgaria and European Turkey). Moss monitoring technique followed the main requirements of European Moss Survey. Moss samples were collected in April 2006 both in Bulgaria and Turkey. Concentration of Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Sb, V, and Zn were determined by ICP-AES. Interlaboratory parallel calibration (exchanged four moss samples from each country), standard reference moss materials (M2 and M3) results ensured the study. ANOVA showed no differences between measured results in both laboratories at the 99% confidence level. Principle Component Analyze proved two factors: F1 group of Al, As, Cd, Cr, Fe, Ni, and V and F2 of Cu, Pb, and Zn as main atmospheric pollutants. Results obtained showed approximately Cu and Pb high concentrations around Istanbul and Burgas and Zn pollution in Istanbul district. Arsenic cross-border atmospheric pollution in the study area of Southeastern Europe was found.     

An assessment of fluoride in the coastal aquifer of the Bara tract in Bharuch district, Gujarat (India)

The fluoride (F) concentration in the coastal aquifers of Bara tract in Bharuch district, Gujarat was determined by potentiometric method using an ion-selective electrode. The fluoride concentration in these aquifers varies between 0.060 to 3.51 mg/L. It was also found that F has a positive correlation with pH and HCO(3)(-) whereas negatively correlated with Ca(2+), indicating that high fluoride in ground water is associated with low calcium content. This suggests that the higher pH of water promotes the leaching of fluoride and thus affects the concentration of fluoride in the ground water. It was also found that there exists no relationship between F, EC, and ground water table from surface in the ground water.     

A comparison of techniques to sample salamander assemblages along highland streams of Maryland

Amphibians may be useful indicators of biological condition in small streams so determining which sampling technique maximizes encounters at the least cost and at the optimal time of year is important. Area constrained surveys (ACS), used by the Maryland Biological Stream Survey, were tested against cover board surveys, drift fences with pitfall and funnel traps, quadrat leaf litter searches, and leaf litter bags. Sixteen, 100 m-long sites were established in headwater streams in the Savage River State Forest in Garrett County, Maryland. Each technique was randomly assigned to a 25 m stream section within each overall sampling site, and sites were sampled once each month from May to October (2005) with additional sampling in March and April (2006). Area constrained surveys yielded means of 2.7 taxa and 14.9 total individuals per sampling visit, which was significantly higher than the yield of all other methods in all months except October and March, when yields were low for all techniques. Area constrained surveys were also significantly more cost-effective per taxon and per individual compared to all other methods. September produced the most taxa and individuals, October and March produced the least, and yields for April through August were similar to September. We employed removal sampling at four sites in April 2006, but abundance could not be estimated because a significant linear decrease in the accumulated catch versus catch per unit effort did not occur for three of the sites.     

Spatiotemporal changes of landscape pattern in response to deforestation in Northeastern Turkey: a case study in Rize

Recognition and understanding of landscape dynamics as a historical legacy of disturbances are necessary for sustainable management of forest ecosystems. This study analyzes spatial and temporal changes in land use and forest cover patterns in a typical mountain forest area in Rize Forest Enterprise of the Northeastern part of Turkey. The area is investigated by evaluated the temporal changes of spatial structure of forest conditions through spatial analysis of forest cover type maps from 1984 and 2007 using GIS and FRAGSTATS. The quantative evidences presented here showed that there were drastic changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use/forest cover. As an overall change between 1984 and 2007, there was a net decrease of 2.30% in total forested areas. On one hand, productive forest areas decreased 12,506 ha, on the other hand, degraded forest areas increased 14,805 ha. In examining the changes of crown closure and development stages of forest ecosystem during the study period, the forest stand area with medium crown closures increased. Regenerated area increased while the other development stages were left to grow to mature development stages in the period. These results regarding to crown closure and development stage showed that forest quality has increased but total forest areas decreased. This is partially due to out-migration of rural population in Rize and Cayeli towns. In terms of spatial configuration, analysis of the metrics revealed that landscape structure in Study area had changed substantially over the 23-year study period, resulting in fragmentation of the landscape as indicated by the large patch numbers and the smaller mean patch sizes due to heavy timber subtraction, illegal cutting, and uncontrolled stand treatments.     

What do qualitative rapid assessment collections of macroinvertebrates represent? A comparison with extensive quantitative sampling

It is a fundamental tenet of Rapid Biological Assessments (RBA) that the samples collected reflect the community from which they are drawn. As with any biological sampling, RBA collections are subject to sampling error resulting in the omission of some taxa. The aim of this study is to compare the composition of RBA samples with an estimate of community structure based on extensive quantitative sampling. We used logistic regression to explore the relationships between the frequency of a taxon being collected in an RBA sample and its biological and ecological traits, namely its abundance, distribution, body size and habit. RBA samples and quantitative estimates of community structure were made in riffles in the Kangaroo and Nepean Rivers, New South Wales, Australia. Single RBA samples may collect up to 63% of the taxa that are collected by extensive quantitative sampling at a site. The frequency of a taxon being recorded in an RBA sample was significantly and positively related to all traits tested indicating a bias in the collection methods towards large, abundant and widely distributed taxa. Accordingly, taxa missed by RBA sampling were generally small, narrowly distributed or rare. These findings enhance our understanding of what RBA samples represent, and the bias and source of errors associated with RBA sampling. This study also quantifies the utility of RBA methods for biodiversity assessment.     

Risk assessment of trihalomethanes from tap water in Fortaleza, Brazil

The cancer risks (CR) by oral ingestion, dermal absorption, and inhalation exposure of trihalomethanes (THM) from tap water of ten districts in Fortaleza, Brazil were estimated. The mean levels of THM compounds were obtained in Fortaleza tap water as follow: 63.9 microg L(-1) for chloroform (CHCl(3)), 40.0 microg L(-1) for bromodichloromethane (CHBrCl(2)), and 15.6 microg L(-1) for dibromochloromethane (CHBr(2)Cl). Bromoform (CHBr(3)) was not detected. The mean CR for THMs in tap water is 3.96 x 10(-4). The results indicate that Fortaleza residents have a higher CR by inhalation than dermal absorption and oral ingestion. The CR for CHCl(3) contributes with 68% as compared with the total CR, followed by CHBrCl(2) (21%), and CHBr(2)Cl (11%). The hazard index (HI) is about ten times lower than unity, not indicating non-cancer effects.