The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?

The commodity price boom that emerged in 2004 has proved far more persevering than its predecessors of 1950 and 1973. Some analysts have suggested that it may represent the start of a “supercycle” caused by the voracious raw materials demand from China and other emerging economies, with prices remaining high for 20-30 years. We offer an alternative explanation. For a variety of reasons, the establishment of new capacity in minerals and energy to match the accelerated demand trends is more time consuming than commonly assumed, and may take a decade or longer. As soon as the new capacity is in place, however, the boom will be punctuated. Prices may collapse much earlier in the event of a severe recession that cuts the growth in commodity demand.     

Estimating Sustainable Bycatch Rates for California Sea Lion Populations in the Gulf of California

Abstract:  Commercial and subsistence fisheries pressure is increasing in the Gulf of California, Mexico. One consequence often associated with high levels of fishing pressure is an increase in bycatch of marine mammals and birds. Fisheries bycatch has contributed to declines in several pinniped species and may be affecting the California sea lion ( Zalophus californianus ) population in the Gulf of California. We used data on fisheries and sea lion entanglement in gill nets to estimate current fishing pressure and fishing rates under which viable sea lion populations could be sustained at 11 breeding sites in the Gulf of California. We used 3 models to estimate sustainable bycatch rates: a simple population-growth model, a demographic model, and an estimate of the potential biological removal. All models were based on life history and census data collected for sea lions in the Gulf of California. We estimated the current level of fishing pressure and the acceptable level of fishing required to maintain viable sea lion populations as the number of fishing days (1 fisher/boat setting and retrieving 1 day's worth of nets) per year. Estimates of current fishing pressure ranged from 101 (0–405) fishing days around the Los Machos breeding site to 1887 (842–3140) around the Los Islotes rookery. To maintain viable sea lion populations at each site, the current level of fishing permissible could be augmented at some sites and should be reduced at other sites. For example, the area around San Esteban could support up to 1428 (935–2337) additional fishing days, whereas fishing around Lobos should be reduced by at least 165 days (107–268). Our results provide conservation practitioners with site-specific guidelines for maintaining sustainable sea lion populations and provide a method to estimate fishing pressure and sustainable bycatch rates that could be used for other marine mammals and birds .     

Long‐Term Dynamics of a Fragmented Rainforest Mammal Assemblage

Abstract: Habitat fragmentation is a severe threat to tropical biotas, but its long‐term effects are poorly understood. We evaluated longer‐term changes in the abundance of larger (>1 kg) mammals in fragmented and intact rainforest and in riparian “corridors” in tropical Queensland, with data from 190 spotlighting surveys conducted in 1986–1987 and 2006–2007. In 1986–1987 when most fragments were already 20–50 years old, mammal assemblages differed markedly between fragmented and intact forest. Most vulnerable were lemuroid ringtail possums (Hemibelideus lemuroides), followed by Lumholtz's tree‐kangaroos (Dendrolagus lumholtzi) and Herbert River ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus herbertensis). Further changes were evident 20 years later. Mammal species richness fell significantly in fragments, and the abundances of 4 species, coppery brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula johnstoni), green ringtail possums (Pseudochirops archeri), red‐legged pademelons (Thylogale stigmatica), and tree‐kangaroos, declined significantly. The most surprising finding was that the lemuroid ringtail, a strict rainforest specialist, apparently recolonized one fragment, despite a 99.98% decrease in abundance in fragments and corridors. A combination of factors, including long‐term fragmentation effects, shifts in the surrounding matrix vegetation, and recurring cyclone disturbances, appear to underlie these dynamic changes in mammal assemblages.     

Demographic Consequences of Terrestrial Habitat Loss for Pool‐Breeding Amphibians: Predicting Extinction Risks Associated with Inadequate Size of Buffer Zones

Abstract: Much of the biodiversity associated with isolated wetlands requires aquatic and terrestrial habitat to maintain viable populations. Current federal wetland regulations in the United States do not protect isolated wetlands or extend protection to surrounding terrestrial habitat. Consequently, some land managers, city planners, and policy makers at the state and local levels are making an effort to protect these wetland and neighboring upland habitats. Balancing human land‐use and habitat conservation is challenging, and well‐informed land‐use policy is hindered by a lack of knowledge of the specific risks of varying amounts of habitat loss. Using projections of wood frog (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) populations, we related the amount of high‐quality terrestrial habitat surrounding isolated wetlands to the decline and risk of extinction of local amphibian populations. These simulations showed that current state‐level wetland regulations protecting 30 m or less of surrounding terrestrial habitat are inadequate to support viable populations of pool‐breeding amphibians. We also found that species with different life‐history strategies responded differently to the loss and degradation of terrestrial habitat. The wood frog, with a short life span and high fecundity, was most sensitive to habitat loss and isolation, whereas the longer‐lived spotted salamander with lower fecundity was most sensitive to habitat degradation that lowered adult survival rates. Our model results demonstrate that a high probability of local amphibian population persistence requires sufficient terrestrial habitat, the maintenance of habitat quality, and connectivity among local populations. Our results emphasize the essential role of adequate terrestrial habitat to the maintenance of wetland biodiversity and ecosystem function and offer a means of quantifying the risks associated with terrestrial habitat loss and degradation.     

The structure of turbulence near a tall forest edge: the backward-facing step flow analogy revisited

Flow disturbances near tall forest edges are receiving significant attention in diverse disciplines including ecology, forest management, meteorology, and fluid mechanics. Current theories suggest that near a forest edge, when the flow originates from a forest into a large clearing, the flow retains its forest canopy turbulence structure at the exit point. Here, we propose that this framework is not sufficiently general for dense forested edges and suggest that the flow shares several attributes with backward-facing step (BFS) flow. Similar analogies, such as rotor-like circulations, have been proposed by a number of investigators, though the consequences of such circulations on the primary terms in the mean momentum balance at the forest clearing edge have rarely been studied in the field. Using an array of three triaxial sonic anemometers positioned to measure horizontal and vertical gradients of the velocity statistics near a forest edge, we show that the flow structure is more consistent with an intermittent recirculation pattern, rather than a continuous rotor, whose genesis resembles the BFS flow. We also show that the lateral velocity variance, v'2, is the moment that adjusts most slowly with downwind distance as the flow exits from the forest into the clearing. Surprisingly, the longitudinal and vertical velocity variances (u'2 and w'2) at the forest edge were comparable in magnitude to their respective values at the center of a large grass-covered forest clearing, suggesting rapid adjustment at the edge. Discussions on how the forest edge modifies the spectra and co-spectra of momentum fluxes, effective mixing length, and static pressure are also presented.     

Effect of environmental forcing on the fate of nutrients, dissolved organic matter and heavy metals released by a coastal wastewater pipeline

Discharges of nutrients, urea, dissolved organic matter and heavy metals by a sewage underwater pipeline are analysed in comparison to environmental conditions in a shallow coastal zone. Variable thermo-haline stratifications of the water column and currents in upper (2.62-34.97 cm s^-1) and deeper (0.83-10.91 cm s^-1) layers drive vertical diffusion and lateral transport of wastewaters. Loads of reactive phosphorus (0.13 tons d^-1) and ammonium (1.62 tons d^-1) by the pipeline are not negligible compared to the major river loads in the gulf. High concentrations of urea (≤11.51 μmol N dm^-3) were found in the area of wastewater release. Ammonium uptake (6.14-534 nmol N dm^-3 h^-1) strongly exceeded nitrate uptake (0.19-138 nmol N dm^-3 h^-1), indicating that discharges of ammonium by the pipeline are actively assimilated by plankton community even at low levels of light. Distribution of Zn (≤27.7 ppb), Cu (≤25.6 ppb), Cd (≤0.80 ppb) and Pb (≤13.5 ppb) in the water column and the measurement of their complex-forming capacity in seawater did not indicate a persistent perturbation of the pelagic environment due to heavy metals.     

Characterization of an underground site in Northern Italy in view of low radioactivity measurements

A low background station for the measurement of low level radioactivity is under development in Northern Italy. The rock cover is about 300 m water equivalent. We report and discuss measurements of radon concentration in air and of gamma, muon and neutron fluxes performed in the neighborhood of the station site. We present and apply a simple analytical model capable to disentangle the contribution to the measured gamma activities due to 222Rn in air from the one due to 238U and its daughters in the rocks.     

Radiocaesium soil-to-plant transfer in tropical environments

In this work, soil-to-plant transfer factors of radiocaesium are predicted based on soil properties such as pH, organic matter content, exchangeable K+ and clay content valid for the tropical environments in Bangladesh, China and Japan, and using a previously published model. Due to insufficient data of soil properties in the selected regions, the average values of pH, organic matter content, exchangeable K+ and clay content were taken as the input model parameters within the ranges given for Asia. Nevertheless, a complete set of soil properties of Japanese soils was used to compare the measured and calculated TF values of radiocaesium for radish. The calculated TF values for radiocaesium are comparable with the measured values especially for leafy parts of a plant. However, calculated values for rice, an important crop in Asia are found to overestimate the measured values due to an overestimate of calculated CECs in soils in the selected regions. The empirical parameters used in the model need to be re-evaluated for the specific part of a plant and/or for a variety of different plants. Alternatively, a general conversion factor for each part of a plant and/or for a variety of different plants for a specific region is suggested for tropical environments.