Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.     

Complexing capacity of natural waters carrying a great amount of suspended matter

The cadmium binding properties of waters of the superior section of the Rio de la Plata estuarine were determined over a three-year period. Samples were collected at different hydrodynamic conditions. The complexing capacity was determined by square wave anodic stripping voltammetry (SWASV). Titration curve data were analyzed using a multivariable regression. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) was identified by XR diffraction and FTIR. These analyses showed that SPM principal components are clays (illite, montmorillonite and chlorite). The study was applied to the untreated, filtered and centrifuged fractions of each sample at the pH of the natural waters and at pH 1. The results show that the contribution of dissolved organic matter to the complexing capacity is negligible when compared with SPM. At natural pH, the complexing capacity of filtered and untreated fractions can be described by considering two kinds of binding sites. The associated conditional binding constants are independent of the concentration of suspended matter. Their average logarithms are ca. 6.5 and ca. 4.4. The total concentration of binding sites (S(T)) is in microM range, which is about three orders of magnitude higher than that reported for most of the studied estuaries. This difference is explained on the basis of the great amount of SPM. Hydrodynamic conditions produce variations in the concentration and composition of the SPM. At pH 1 samples still exhibit an important complexing capacity with only one binding site with log K(cond) ca. 5.4. These differences could be attributed to superficial modifications that take place at very low pH.     

Assessing spatial variability of SO2 field as detected by an air quality network using Self-Organizing Maps,cluster, and Principal Component Analysis

In Bilbao (Spain), an air quality network measures sulphur dioxide levels at 4 locations. The objective of this paper is to develop a practical methodology to identify redundant sensors and evaluate a network's capability to correctly follow and represent SO₂ fields in Bilbao, in the frame of a continuous network optimization process.The methodology is developed and tested at this particular location, but it is general enough to be useable at other places as well, since it is not tied neither to the particular geographical characteristics of the place nor to the phenomenology of the air quality over the area.To assess the spatial variability of SO₂ measured at 4 locations in the area, three different techniques have been used: Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs), cluster analysis (CA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results show that the three techniques yield the same results, but the information obtained via PCA can be helpful not only for that purpose but also to throw light on the major mechanisms involved. This might be used in future network optimization stages. The main advantage of cluster analysis and SOMs is that they provide readily interpretable results. All the calculations have been carried out using the freely available software R.     

A Comparative Study on the Archives of Xanthine Oxidase and Aldehyde Oxidase in Different Fish Species from Two Rivers in the Western Niger-Delta

Glycaemia, a classical indicator of stress, xanthine oxidase and aldehyde oxidase which are involved in phase I detoxication were investigated in two different fish species from two rivers with different pollution levels in the Western Niger-Delta. Four sampling zones covering the entire lengths of Warri and Ethiope Rivers respectively were used in this study. For each species of fish five were obtained from a sampling zone in a river. Blood glucose was significantly higher (P < 0.001) in M. electricus from Warri River (82.13 +/- 5.50 mg cm(-3)) compared to the same species from Ethiope River (36.47 +/- 1.49 mg cm(-3)). With the same parameter a similar profile was observed for C. gariepinus; Warri River (56.92 +/- 10.31 mg cm(-3)); Ethiope River (37.65 +/- 0.90 mg cm(-3)) which was also significant (P < 0.01). The activity of xanthine oxidase in M. electricus from Warri River (255.80 +/- 41 it mol cm(-3)) was significantly higher (P < 0.001) compared to the value obtained for the same species (108 +/- 22.36 micro mol cm(-3)) from Ethiope River. Also the activity of xanthine oxidase in C. gariepinus from Warri River (197 +/- 34.65 micro mol cm(-3)) was significantly higher (P < 0.001) when matched with the value obtained for the same species (78.40 +/- 26.84 micro mol cm(-3)) from Ethiope River. That blood glucose level was related to xanthine oxidase activity in the two fish species from Warri River was supported by the high positive correlation between these two parameters (M. electricus. r = 1: C. gariepinus, r = 0.71). The activity of aldehyde oxidase in C. gariepinus from Warri River (143.80 +/- 28.45 micro mol cm(-3)) was significantly higher (P < 0.001) compared to the value obtained for the same species (61.20 +/- 15.21 micro mol cm(-3)) from Ethiope River. A similar profile in aldehyde oxidase activity observed for M. electricus; Warri River (130 +/- 28.39 micro mol cm(-3)); Ethiope River (89 +/- 19.70 micro mol cm(-3)) but an inferior statistical variation (P < 0.05) was obtained. The results obtained in this study indicate that the level of xanthine oxidase in M. electricus is a more specific marker and to a lesser extent its activity in C. gariepinus in monitoring environmental stress due to pollution.     

Seasonal and spatial occurrence and distribution of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in rural and urban areas of the North Chinese Plain

Passive air sampling (PAS) was employed to study the occurrence of gaseous and particle-bound PAHs in the North Chinese Plain. The averaged concentrations of gaseous and particle-bound PAHs were 485 ± 209 ng/m³ and 267 ± 161 ng/m³, respectively. The PAHs concentrations at urban sites were generally higher than those at rural ones with ratios <1.5 in spring, summer and fall, but differences between them were not significant for the wintertime and annually averaged concentrations. This urban-rural distribution pattern was related to the PAHs emission sources. PAHs spatial variation can be partially (49%) explained by emission with a simple linear regression method. Both the gaseous and particle-bound PAHs were highest in winter and lowest in summer, with winter/summer ratios of 1.8 and 8, respectively. Emission strength was the most important factor for the seasonality.     

Bayesian nonparametric inference for the overlap of daily animal activity patterns

The study of the interaction among species is an active area of research in Ecology. In particular, it is of interest to evaluate the overlap of their ecological niches. Temporal activity is one of the niche’s axes most commonly used to explore ecological segregation among animal species, and many contributions focus on the overlap of this variable. Once the information of the temporal activity is obtained in the wild, the data is treated as a random sample. There exist different methods to estimate the overlap. Specifically, in the case of two species, one possibility is to estimate the density of the temporal activity of each species and then evaluate the overlap between these density functions. This leads naturally to the analysis of circular data. Most of the procedures currently in use impose some rather restrictive assumptions on the probabilistic models used to describe the phenomena, and only provide approximate measures of the uncertainty involved in the process. In this article, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach which incorporates a well-defined noninformative prior. We take advantage of the data structure to define such a prior in terms of the predictive distribution. To the best of our knowledge, this is a novel approach. Our procedure is compared with a well-known method using simulated data, and applied to the analysis of real camera-trap data concerning two mammalian species from the El Triunfo biosphere reserve (Chiapas, Mexico).     

Transfer of pesticides to the brew during mate drinking process and their relationship with physicochemical properties

In order to evaluate the extraction of pesticide residues that are transferred to the brew during mate drinking process of P.U.1 yerba mate leaves (Ilex paraguariensis), a special device to simulate the way in which mate is drunk in Uruguay was developed. The transfer to the brew of 12 organophosphates, 5 synthethic pyrethroids and one organochlorine pesticide from spiked samples was studied. The relationship between the transfer data thus obtained and physicochemical properties like water solubility (Ws), octanol-water coefficient (Kow) and Henry's constant (H) was evaluated. The extractability of the pesticide residues from yerba mate can be correlated with log Ws and log Kow. These transfer values allowed the calculation of ARLs (acceptable residue level) for the pesticides following Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Health Organizaion (WHO) guidelines. These results can help the future establishment of maximum residue levels (MRLs).     

Phthalate and PAH concentrations in dust collected from Danish homes and daycare centers

As part of the Danish Indoor Environment and Children’s Health (IECH) study, dust samples were collected from 500 bedrooms and 151 daycare centers of children (ages 3 to 5) living on the island of Fyn. The present paper reports results from the analyses of these samples for five phthalate esters (diethyl phthalate (DEP), di(n-butyl) phthalate (DnBP), di(isobutyl) phthalate (DiBP), butyl benzyl phthalate (BBzP), di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP)) and three PAHs (pyrene, benz[a]anthracene (B[a]A) and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P)). The three PAHs and DEHP were detected in dust samples from all sites, while DEP, DnBP, DiBP and BBzP were detected in more than 75% of the bedrooms and more than 90% of the daycare centers. The dust mass-fractions of both phthalates and PAHs were log-normally distributed. With the exception of DEP, the mass-fractions of phthalates in dust were higher in daycare centers than homes; PAH mass-fractions in dust were similar in the two locations. There was no correlation among the different phthalates in either homes or daycare centers. In contrast, the PAH were correlated with one another – more strongly so in homes (R² = 0.80–0.90) than in daycare centers (R² = 0.28–0.45). The dust levels of several phthalates (BBzP, DnBP and DEHP) were substantially lower than those measured in a comparable study conducted 6–7 years earlier in Sweden. Although usage patterns in Denmark differ from those in Sweden, the current results may also reflect a change in the plasticizers that are used in common products including toys. PAH levels were roughly an order of magnitude lower than those measured in Berlin and Cape Cod residences, suggesting that the Danish sites are less impacted by motor vehicle emissions.     

Spatial Variation of Soil Salinity in the Mexicali Valley, Mexico: Application of a Practical Method for Agricultural Monitoring

The degradation of irrigated lands through the process of soil salinization, or the buildup of salts in the soil, has hampered recent increases in agricultural productivity and threatens the sustainability of large-scale cultivation in critical agricultural regions of the world. Rapid detection of soil salinity on a regional basis has been identified as key for effective mitigation of such land degradation. The ability to detect regional patterns of soil salinity at an accuracy sufficient for regional-scale resource management is demonstrated using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery. A case study of the Mexicali Valley of Baja California, Mexico was selected due to the region's agricultural significance and concern for future soil salinity increases. Surface soil salinity was mapped using georeferenced field measurements of electrical conductivity (EC), collected concurrently with Landsat 5 TM imagery. Correlations between EC measurements and common indices derived from the satellite imagery were used to produce a model of soil salinity through regression analysis. Landsat band 7, TNDVI, PCA 1, Tasseled Cap 3 and Tasseled Cap 5 were found to offer the most promising correlations with surface soil salinity. Generally low levels of soil salinity were detected, however, distinct areas of elevated surface salinity were detected at levels potentially impacting sensitive crops cultivated within the region. The difficulty detecting low levels of salinity and the mid-range spatial resolution of Landsat 5 TM imagery restrict the applicability of this methodology to the study of broad regional patterns of degradation most appropriate for use by regional resource managers.