Some specialized risk assessment methodologies for vertebrate populations

We present three empirical methods for risk assessment in field studies of free-ranging vertebrates. First, we advocate statistical inference concerning population recruitment or mortality in response to ecological hazards. Second, if inferences about both recruitment and mortality are available, one can use a Leslie- Lefkovitch matrix to estimate the finite rate of population change () as a function of ecological hazards. Third, designed experiments can be conducted on samples of marked animals in natural environments to assess impacts and risks. These methods rely on either sophisticated capture-recapture or radio-tracking models, and on well-developed analysis theory. The use of uniquely marked animals is somewhat analogous to the use of tracers in other areas of risk assessment. We present examples of each approach and discuss some limitations.     

Assemblage stability in stream fishes: A review

We quantified the stability of nine stream fish assemblages by calculating coefficients of variation of population size for assemblage members. Coefficients of variation were high and averaged over 96%; indicating that most assemblages were quite variable. Coefficient of variation (CV) estimates were not significantly affected by: (1) years of study, (2) mean abundance, (3) familial classification, or (4) mean interval between collections. We also detected minor regional differences in CVs. The high variability exhibited by many stream fish assemblages suggests that it may be difficult to detect the effects of anthropogenic disturbances using population data alone. Consequently, we urge managers to exercise caution in the evaluation of the effects of these disturbances. More long-term studies of the ecological characteristics of undisturbed stream fish assemblages are needed to provide a benchmark against which disturbed systems can be compared. We suggest that CVs are a better estimator of population/assemblage stability, than either Kendall's W or the standard deviation of the logarithms of numerical censuses. This conclusion is based on the following reasons. First, CVs scale population variation by the mean and, hence, more accurately measure population variability. Second, this scaling permits the comparison of populations with different mean abundances. Finally, the interpretation of CV values is less ambiguous than either of the aforementioned metrics.     

IDENTIFYING AND MEASURING POTENTIAL CONFLICT IN WATER INSTITUTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Scarcity combined with differences in values, beliefs, and attitudes can lead to behavior differences and conflicts over water. This paper develops an index for measuring potential conflict using survey information about water attitudes and beliefs of individuals in three groups in a Florida case study. The index helps in assessing the current capability of the institution to reduce conflict. The results suggest that the current institution is effective, but changes may help to streamline the consumptive-use permitting process, to improve educational programs, and to seek improved institutional arrangements to reduce future conflict over economic uses of water.     

AGRICULTURAL LAND USE EFFECTS ON NITRATE CONCENTRATIONS IN A MATURE KARST AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: The impact on water quality by agricultural activity in karst terrain is an important consideration for resource management within the Appalachian Region. Karst areas comprise about 18 percent of the Region's land area. An estimated one-third of the Region's farms, cattle, and agricultural market value are on karst terrain. Nitrate concentrations were measured in cave streams draining two primary land management areas. The first area was pasture serving a beef cow-calf operation. The second area was a dairy. Nitrate-N concentrations were highest in cave streams draining the dairy and a cave stream draining an area of pasture where cattle congregate for shade and water. The dairy contributed about 60 to 70 percent of the nitrogen load increase in the study section of the cave system. It was concluded that agriculture was significantly affecting nitrate concentrations in the karst aquifer. Best management practices may be one way to protect the ground water resource.     

COUNTY COMMISSIONERS' WATER KNOWLEDGE1

ABSTRACT: This study examines the social construction of county commissioners' knowledge about water. Factors that influence what commissioners know about water include each commissioner's personal characteristics, education, experience in natural resources management, involvement in policy making, and use and evaluation of various sources of information. This study focused on county commissioners representing rural, mixed, and urban counties in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah and collected data through mail surveys and interviews. County commissioners in the survey were well educated; however, few had taken college courses directly addressing technical, management, or legal aspects of water issues. Approximately one-third had direct experience in farming and ranching; nearly two-thirds indicated that farming and ranching played a major role in their communities. Respondents had experience with a broad range of water policy issues. In evaluating thirteen information sources in terms of their frequency of use, relevancy, and reliability, respondents assessed fellow commissioners and local government staff and managers most positively and nonprofit organizations most negatively. The media was also broadly rated as less relevant and reliable than other sources of information. The commissioners in the study expressed a high level of general concern about water issues and a strung preference for local sources of information.     

Risk of fatal amebic meningoencephalitis from waterborneNaegleria fowleri

Primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM) is a fatal disease of the central nervous system caused primarily by the free-living ameba,Naegleria fowleri. PAM is primarily associated with swimming in various types of fresh water. World literature was reviewed in order to derive a risk analysis model that would be helpful in the management of PAM. The management of PAM risk is difficult, and the prevention of PAM is almost impossible. However, it is reassuring that the cases and risks estimated by the risk model are usually small, with individual annual risk on the order of 10^–6.     

Experimental evidence for food limitation and sex-specific strategies of American kestrels (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Falco sparverius</Emphasis>) provisioning offspring

For birds with altricial young, the brood-rearing period is one of the most energetically expensive periods in their lives and may be the bottleneck for fitness. Because parents are expected to be prudent in allocating resources between reproduction and self-maintenance, food supply should be an important factor determining reproductive decisions during brood rearing. Parents with abundant food are expected to have enhanced fitness because they are able to reduce their work rates and increase their own survival chances, because their offspring may be of higher quality, or some combination of these. However, few studies have simultaneously documented all of these variables in a single investigation. We performed a food supplementation experiment to test how food supply influenced provisioning decisions by parent American kestrels (Falco sparverius). Female kestrels showed a strong response to extra food and reduced their provisioning rates. As a result, supplemented females had higher return rates than control females, suggesting significant effects of food on female survival. Because females used extra food to increase their fitness, our results suggest that kestrels raising offspring are limited by food. Male kestrels whose nests were supplemented also responded to extra food by reducing provisioning, but to a much lesser extent than their mates. Male parents did not appear to benefit from supplementation, as their return rates were similar to control males. The total amount of food received on a daily basis by nestlings was similar between supplemented and control nests. Supplemented offspring therefore did not fledge in better condition or have higher survival rates than control nestlings; the only significant factor consistently affecting offspring condition and survival was weather.     

A second case of intrauterine growth retardation and primary hypospadias associated with a trisomy 22 placenta but with biparental inheritance of chromosome 22 in the fetus

We report a case of severe intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) and hypospadias in association with trisomy 22 diagnosed following chorionic villus sampling (CVS). Subsequent analysis of amniotic fluid cultures showed a normal male karyotype, 46,XY. As a previous case had been reported with similar abnormalities, in association with maternal uniparental disomy (UPD) 22, molecular studies were also performed. Microsatellite marker studies showed biparental inheritance. Follow-up studies after delivery showed a normal cell line in lymphocytes with the trisomy appearing to be confined to the placenta. The present case concurs with other earlier reports that maternal UPD for chromosome 22 has no impact on the phenotype. The features seen in the fetus are most likely the result of placental dysfunction due to trisomy, tissue-specific mosaicism and/or the effects of local growth restriction. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.