The Effects of Rotary Kiln Operating Conditions and Design on Burden Heating Rates as Determined by a Mathematical Model of Rotary Kiln Heat Transfer

A mathematical model of heat transfer in a directly-fired rotary kiln is developed and used to examine the effects of operating and design parameters on burden temperature. The model includes a mean beam length radiation model and axial zoning. Conductive and convective heat transfer are also included. Radiation between immediately adjacent zones is permitted. Calculation of heat transfer rates is facilitated by the use of an electric circuit analogue. An iterative solution procedure is adopted to solve the energy balance equations.

At the conditions examined, the model predicts that coflowlng gas and solid streams result in higher average burden temperatures than do counterflowing streams. The moisture level of the feed is predicted to be a key operating parameter. The effects of kiln length, burden residence time, firing rate, and flame length are also examined.     

A Comparison of Nonlinear Regression and Neural Network Models for Ground-Level Ozone Forecasting

ABSTRACT

A hybrid nonlinear regression (NLR) model and a neural network (NN) model, each designed to forecast next-day maximum 1-hr average ground-level O₃ concentrations in Louisville, KY, were compared for two O₃ seasons—1998 and 1999. The model predictions were compared for the forecast mode, using forecasted meteorological data as input, and for the hindcast mode, using observed meteorological data as input. The two models performed nearly the same in the forecast mode. For the two seasons combined, the mean absolute forecast error was 12.5 ppb for the NLR model and 12.3 ppb for the NN model. The detection rate of 120 ppb threshold exceedances was 42% for each model in the forecast mode. In the hindcast mode, the NLR model performed marginally better than the NN     

Trends in Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Concentrations in Six Kentucky Metro Areas, 1998–2002

Abstract

Meteorologically adjusted ozone (O₃) concentrations during five recent O₃ seasons (1998-2002) were computed for six Kentucky metro areas using a nonlinear regression model originally developed for forecasting ground-level O₃ concentrations. The meteorological adjustment procedure was based on modifying actual measured O₃ concentrations according to model-predicted responses to climate departures with respect to a reference year. For all six Kentucky metro areas, meteorologically adjusted O₃ concentrations declined over the five-year period. The linear best-fit rate of decline in mean adjusted O₃ concentrations ranged from 0.9 to 2.6 ppb/yr for these metro areas; the average rate of decline was 1.6 ppb/yr. The rates of decline in meteorologically adjusted extreme value (e.g., 95th percentile) concentrations were approximately the same, but there is greater statistical uncertainty concerning the extreme value trends.     

Optimizing carbon sequestration in commercial forests by integrating carbon management objectives in wood supply modeling

This paper provides a methodology for generating forest management plans, which explicitly maximize carbon (C) sequestration at the forest-landscape level. This paper takes advantage of concepts first presented in a paper by Meng et al. (2003; Mitigation Adaptation Strategies Global Change 8:371–403) by integrating C-sequestration objective functions in existing wood supply models. Carbon-stock calculations performed in Woodstock^TM (RemSoft Inc.) are based on C yields generated from volume table data obtained from local Forest Development Survey plots and a series of wood volume-to-C content conversion factors specified in von Mirbach (2000). The approach is used to investigate the impact of three demonstration forest-management scenarios on the C budget in a 110,000 ha forest in south-central New Brunswick, Canada. Explicit demonstration scenarios addressed include (1) maximizing timber extraction either by clearcut or selection harvesting for greatest revenue generation, (2) maximizing total C storage in the forest landscape and in wood products generated from harvesting, and (3) maximizing C storage together with revenue generation. The level of clearcut harvesting was greatest for scenario 1 (≥15 × 10⁴ m³ of wood and ≥943 ha of land per harvesting period), and least for scenario 2 (=0 m³ per harvesting period) where selection harvesting dominated. Because softwood saw logs were worth more than pulpwood ($60 m⁻³ vs. $40 m⁻³) and were strategic to the long-term storage of C, the production of softwood saw logs exceeded the production of pulpwood in all scenarios. Selection harvesting was generally the preferred harvesting method across scenarios. Only in scenario 1 did levels of clearcut harvesting occasionally exceed those of selection harvesting, mainly in the removal of old, dilapidated stands early in the simulation (i.e., during periods 1 through 3). Scenario 2 provided the greatest total C-storage increase over 80 years (i.e., 14 × 10⁶ Mg C, or roughly 264 Mg ha⁻¹) at a cost of $111 per Mg C due to lost revenues. Scenarios 3 and 1 produced reduced storage rates of roughly 9 × 10⁶ Mg C and 3 × 10⁶ Mg C, respectively; about 64% and 22% of the total, 80-year C storage calculated in scenario 2. The bulk of the C in scenario 2 was stored in the forest, amounting to about 76% of the total C sequestered.     

From disaster management to adaptive governance? Governance challenges to achieving resilient food systems in Australia

Building resilient food systems in the context of climate change and increased natural disasters depends on governance being more ‘adaptive’. Through a case study of events surrounding the extensive flooding that occurred in Queensland, Australia, in 2011, this paper examines how governance settings and processes affected food system actors’ engagement with three aspects of adaptive governance – responsibility, participation and collaboration – as those actors sought to ensure food availability and access during the crisis. We found that, despite the existence of formal governance instruments committed to disaster management, food security and resilience at local, state and national levels, responsibilities for ensuring food supply during a disaster were not clearly articulated. Responsibility was largely assumed by supermarkets, who in turn increased the influence of retailer–government coalitions. The participation of non-supermarket food system actors in governance was low, and there was limited collaboration between local, and other, levels of governance. The policy challenge is to ensure that responsibility, participation and collaboration become a stronger foci for adaptive governance during and after a disaster such as flooding.     

Connecting with Country in Mungo National Park,Australia: a case study to measure the emotional dimension of experience and place attachment

Connecting people with nature improves well-being, but how people connect with natural places is not well documented. We asked 43 people (19 Aboriginal Australians, 24 non-Aboriginal people) about the messages they received from Country during an interactive experience in the remote Mungo National Park, Australia, and analysed the physical senses, emotions and cognitive processes they mentioned. The physical senses mentioned by most respondents were sight, hearing and motion (particularly walking). These senses helped people receive messages from Country and connect with place. We used the primary-process emotional systems of Panksepp [2010. Dialogues in Clinical Neuroscience, 12 (4), 533–545] as a framework to capture the emotional dimension of experience. Most people reported positive emotions; they spoke about being nurtured by the group and the land (CARE), and the intense joy (PLAY) of being part of the community, being on Country and being accompanied by Aboriginal people. However, our results indicate the framework does not capture the breadth of positive emotions, particularly those associated with connection to place and spiritual experiences. Both groups mentioned cognitive processes reflecting their beliefs, existing knowledge, or sharing and acquiring new knowledge. Our results indicate that the emotional dimension of experience has the potential to measure connection to place, and provide a subjective measure of well-being. More research is needed to document this dimension of experience, and how it changes with context. Our case study provides further insight for those who manage protected areas and seek to enrich the experience of visitors.     

Insights into community vulnerability and resilience following natural disasters: perspectives with food retailers in Northern NSW,Australia

The resilience of Australia's food-supply chain following natural disasters has been brought into question, following the significant flooding and cyclone events of 2010/2011. How this manifests at the community level, in both rural and urban locations, has been examined through the lens of large and small food retailers in northern NSW. These interviews reveal the fragility of both the long and short supply chain where transport systems are compromised. Self-imposed standards severely restricted the ability of supermarkets to acquire fresh food, in the face of transport disruptions. Similarly, the precarious position of rural food retailers, exposed to continual fuel and electricity price increases, is compounded by the impact of extreme weather events. The insights captured through this study suggest interception points, or policy entry points, to address the resilience of the food-supply chain.     

The effect of rearing environment on blue structural coloration of eastern bluebirds (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sialia sialis</Emphasis>)

We used a brood-size manipulation to test the effect of rearing environment on structural coloration of feathers grown by eastern bluebird (Sialia sialis) nestlings. Ultraviolet (UV)-blue structural coloration has been shown to be sexually selected in this species. Our experimental design took advantage of the growth of UV-blue wing feathers in nestlings that are retained as part of the first nuptial plumage. We cross-fostered nestlings to create enlarged and reduced broods with the purpose of manipulating parental feeding rates and measured the effect on nestling growth and plumage coloration. Brood size influenced feeding rates to offspring, but the effect varied with season. In general, male nestlings reared in reduced broods were fed more often, weighed more, and displayed brighter structural plumage compared to nestlings reared in enlarged broods. Female nestlings appeared to experience less adverse affects of brood enlargement, and we did not detect an effect of brood-size manipulation on the plumage coloration of female nestlings. Measures of plumage coloration in both males and females, however, were correlated to hatching date and nestling mass during feather development. These data provide empirical evidence that environmental quality can influence the development of the blue structural coloration of feathers and that males may be more sensitive to environmental fluctuations than females.     

The effects of variable predation risk on foraging and growth: less risk is not necessarily better

There is strong evidence that the way prey respond to predation risk can be fundamentally important to the structuring and functioning of natural ecosystems. The majority of work on such nonconsumptive predator effects (NCEs) has examined prey responses under constant risk or constant safety. Hence, the importance of temporal variation in predation risk, which is ubiquitous in natural systems, has received limited empirical attention. In addition, tests of theory (e.g., the risk allocation hypothesis) on how prey allocate risk have relied almost exclusively on the behavioral responses of prey to variation in risk. In this study, we examined how temporal variation in predation risk affected NCEs on prey foraging and growth. We found that high risk, when predictable, was just as energetically favorable to prey as safe environments that are occasionally pulsed by risk. This pattern emerged because even episodic pulses of risk in otherwise safe environments led to strong NCEs on both foraging and growth. However, NCEs more strongly affected growth than foraging, and we suggest that such effects on growth are most important to how prey ultimately allocate risk. Hence, exclusive focus on behavioral responses to risk will likely provide an incomplete understanding of how NCEs shape individual fitness and the dynamics of ecological communities.