Windows of change: temporal scale of analysis is decisive to detect ecosystem responses to climate change

Long-term ecological research has become a cornerstone of the scientific endeavour to better understand ecosystem responses to environmental change. This paper provides a perspective on how such research could be advanced. It emphasizes that a profound understanding of the mechanisms underlying these responses requires that records of ecologic processes be not only sufficiently long, but also collected at an appropriate temporal resolution. We base our argument on an overview of studies of climate impacts in limnic and marine ecosystems, suggesting that lakes and oceans respond to (short-term) weather conditions during critical time windows in the year. The observed response patterns are often time-lagged or driven by the crossing of thresholds in weather-related variables (such as water temperature and thermal stratification intensity). It becomes clear from the previous studies that average annual, seasonal or monthly climate data often fall short of characterizing the thermal dynamics that most organisms respond to. To illustrate such literature-based evidence using a concrete example, we compare 2?years of water temperature data from Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany) at multiple temporal scales (from hours to years). This comparison underlines the pitfalls of analysing data at resolutions not high enough to detect critical differences in environmental forcing. Current science initiatives that aim at improving the temporal resolution of long-term observatory data in aquatic systems will help to identify adequate timescales of analysis necessary for the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change.     

Beach macro-litter monitoring on southern Baltic beaches: results,experiences and recommendations

Major objectives were to provide a comprehensive dataset on beach macro-litter for parts of the southern Baltic Sea and to analyse if the methodology is fully applicable and a suitable monitoring method in the Baltic. We carried out a regular macro litter beach monitoring (OSPAR methodology, 4 time a year) on 35 beaches along the German and Lithuanian Baltic coast over 2–5 years. Additional experiments addressed the subjectivity of the field surveys and spatio-temporal variability on different scales. We observed no seasonality of the data and a monthly compared to a 3-monthly sampling resulted in 3 times higher annual item numbers. Along the Lithuanian coast, the average number of items per survey varied between 138 and 340 and along the German Baltic coast between 7 and 404, with a median value of 47. All data showed a very high spatio-temporal variability. Using the Matrix Scoring Technique we assessed beach litter sources. With 50% tourism and recreation was the most important source. 3D–transport simulations helped to explain the minor role of shipping as a source and, compared to the North Sea, the low numbers of items on German Baltic beaches. Floating litter had a short duration time in the western Baltic Sea and offshore drift dominated. Further, the common regular beach cleanings reduced the potential for local litter accumulation and translocation. We suggest a monitoring system on 14 Baltic beaches in Germany and 2 in Lithuania and provide cost calculations. The analysis of macro-litter in cormorant nesting material and the search for beached dead animals did not show any result. We can conclude that the macro-litter beach monitoring method is less suitable for Baltic beaches and should only serve as a complementary method in combination with others.     

Retrospective assessment of a managed coastal realignment and lagoon restoration measure: the Geltinger Birk,Germany

We document and analyse the implementation process of a large combined coastal protection realignment and nature protection rewetting scheme, covering about 1000 ha at the German Baltic coast. The assessment reviews local planning documents, includes a media analysis, a tourist survey, stakeholder interviews and we provide criteria for measuring success, derived from the Systems Approach Framework (SAF) concept. The full process in the Geltinger Birk took over 25 years and was finished in 2013. The early years were characterised by strong local opposition, a polarization of the local society, misinformation and negative media coverage. Land purchase, the establishment of a local information centre with an environmental manager, improved public participation, a more pro-active media strategy and the readiness to accept compromises finally enabled a successful implementation. Today, a comprehensive tourism information and guidance system exists and the area became a popular tourist place. 80% of all visitors point out the outstanding nature experience and 87% are positive about the combined coastal protection and restoration measure. Parallel, major stakeholders changed their attitude and today are positive about the situation. However, the long timespan between initiation of the process and implementation of the measure, calls for a systematic, guided management approach, like the SAF. Especially, because climate change, sea level rise and increasing pressures on the coasts require a much faster implementation of adaptation measures in future.     

Minimal health impact from exposure to diet-sourced cadmium on a population in central Jamaica

Elevated concentrations of naturally occurring Cd have been found mainly in the bauxitic soils of central Jamaica at levels up to 100–1,000 times higher than typical worldwide averages. Some food crops cultivated on these soils absorb significant amounts of Cd. Autopsy studies of kidney Cd concentrations confirm elevated human exposure, and some long-term residents in central Jamaica exceed the general population average by a factor of two. Diet studies have ascertained that a population in central Jamaica is at risk of being exposed to Cd levels in excess of the Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake (PTWI) set by the WHO of 7 μgCd/kg bodyweight/week, and the EU TWI of 2.5 μgCd/kg bodyweight/week. Elevated levels of urine cadmium (U-Cd) and beta-2 microglobulin (β2-MG) concentrations were confirmed with a strong correlation between soil Cd and the U-Cd. Also, higher β2-MG concentrations (>200μg/g creatinine) were found in the population with U-Cd concentrations greater than 2.5μg/L. While this identification is often taken to indicate impairment in the reabsorption capacity of the renal tubules leading to renal disease, there is no evidence in the mortality records of enhanced deaths in central Jamaica compared with the general population resulting from renal disease or diabetes related complications. The highest median age of death in the island is found in Manchester, the parish with the highest average Cd concentration. While we have identified a possible Cd linked renal dysfunction, significant indications of morbidity are not present in the general population.     

Impact of host community composition on Lyme disease risk

The drivers of variable disease risk in complex multi-host disease systems have proved very difficult to identify. Here we test a model that explains the entomological risk of Lyme disease (LD) in terms of host community composition. The model was parameterized in a continuous forest tract at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies (formerly the Institute of Ecosystem Studies) in New York State, U.S.A. We report the results of continuing longitudinal observations (10 years) at the Cary Institute, and of a shorter-term study conducted in forest fragments in LD endemic areas of Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, USA. Model predictions were significantly correlated with the observed nymphal infection prevalence (NIP) in both studies, although the relationship was stronger in the longer-term Cary Institute study. Species richness was negatively, albeit weakly, correlated with NIP (logistic regression), and there was no relationship between the Shannon diversity index (H') and NIP. Although these results suggest that LD risk is in fact dependent on host diversity, the relationship relies explicitly on the identities and frequencies of host species such that conventional uses of the term biodiversity (i.e., richness, evenness, H') are less appropriate than are metrics that include species identity. This underscores the importance of constructing interaction webs for vertebrates and exploring the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic stressors on host community composition.     

Environmental processes affecting plant root uptake of radioactive trace elements and variability of transfer factor data: a review

Soil-to-plant transfer factors are commonly used to estimate the food chain transfer of radionuclides. Their definition assumes that the concentration of a radionuclide in a plant relates linearly solely to its average concentration in the rooting zone of the soil. However, the large range of transfer factors reported in the literature shows that the concentration of a radionuclide in a soil is not the only factor influencing its uptake by a plant. With emphasis on radiocesium and -strontium, this paper reviews the effects of competition with major ions present in the soil-plant system, the effects of rhizosphere processes and soil micro-organisms on bioavailability, the factors influencing transport to and uptake by roots and the processes affecting long-term uptake rates. Attention is given to summarizing the results of recent novel electrophysiological and genetic techniques which provide a physiologically based understanding of the processes involved in the uptake and translocation of radiocesium and -strontium by plants.