PERFORMANCE TRADEOFF CHARACTERISTIC OF A FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The performance of a flood warning system can be characterized statistically by three variables: the expected number of detections per year, ND; the expected number of false warnings per year, NP; and the expected lead time of a warning, LT. The Performance Tradeoff Characteristic (PTC) of a warning system is a set of all combinations (ND, NP, and LT) that are feasible to attain in a given system. The concept of PTC is an evolution of the concept of ROC (Relative Operating Characteristic) widely used in detection theory. Each characteristic, ROC and PTC, can be displayed graphically in the form of a family of curves. The displays offer an aid to engineering planning and design of flood warning systems. (KEY TERMS: flood forecasts; flood warnings; reliability; detection; Relative Operating Characteristic; Performance Tradeoff Characteristic.)     

Ingestion and incorporation of coral-mucus detritus by reef zooplankton

The copepod Acartia tonsa and the reef mysid Mysidium integrum ingest stained coral mucus. Ingestion rates determined with radioisotope-labeled mucus ranged from 4 to 81% body carbon · 24 h^-1 for the copepods and I to 70% body carbon · 24 h^-1 for the mysids. Incorporation was measured by comparing the organic composition of fecal material and by the incorporation of isotope-labeled mucus. A. tonsa incorporated 47% of ingested ash-free material, 68% of carbon and 36% of nitrogen. M. integrum incorporated 44% of ingested ash-free matter, 57% of carbon and 55% of nitrogen. Incorporation estimates using ¹⁴C-labeled mucus were 65% and 39% for incorporation by A. tonsa and M. integrum respectively. A. tonsa and M. integrum incorporated both the mucus substrate and the epiphytic bacteria of the mucus-detritus.     

Fenton's type reaction and chemical pretreatment of PCBs

This study evaluates the effects of Fenton's reagent (FR) on the rate and extent of the oxidative degradation of individual mono, di-, tri- and tetrachlorobiphenyls in the commercial mixture DELOR 103, equivalent to AROCLOR 1248. The oxidation effect of FR strongly increased with increasing the molar ratio of Fe²⁺/H₂O₂. The most effective oxidation of DELOR 103 (10 μg.ml⁻¹) was achieved in a solution containing 1M H₂O₂ and 1 mM Fe²⁺. The FR elimination rate constants of PCB congeners decrease with increasing number of chlorine substituents in the biphenyl molecule and show a good correlation with the values of molecular weights of the PCB congeners and their 1-octanol/water partition coefficients.     

Concentrations of dioxin-like PCB congeners in unweathered Aroclors by HRGC/HRMS using EPA Method 1668A

We have determined the congener compositions of nine commercial Aroclor products of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to the sub-part-per-million level using high-resolution gas chromatography combined with high-resolution mass spectrometry according to US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method 1668A. These Aroclor composition data should allow improved characterization and risk assessment of PCB contamination at hazardous waste sites, particularly for dioxin-like PCB congeners. By combining the data on the concentrations of each dioxin-like congener with its World Health Organization toxicity equivalency factor, we have established dioxin toxic equivalent concentrations for each pure Aroclor product.     

Persistent organochlorine contaminants in human tissues of the Czech and Slovak populations

The persistence of lipophilic organochlorine substances leads to their incorporation into the food chain and subsequent uptake by humans. Due to their use in the past, Czech and Slovak countries belong to the countries with a relatively high body burden of organochlorines. Levels of PCBs in human tissues based on the congener‐specific analysis are reported in this paper. Samples were analysed for the most abundant PCB congeners. Prevalent persistent organochlorine pesticides and their isomers/metabolites have also been included. The present study is focused on following areas: i) distribution of analysed substances in the various human tissue samples from selected regions of the Czech and Slovak Republic and ii) comparison with the results from other foreign and local studies.     

Using stable isotopes to monitor anthropogenic nitrogen inputs to estuaries

Use of stable nitrogen isotope ratios is one method that has been proposed to indicate anthropogenic nutrient enrichment in estuarine systems. However, the role of stable isotopes as a tool in long-term ecosystem monitoring has not been fully developed. Resident producer and consumer species were collected from marshes dominated by Spartina alterniflora and subject to a range of anthropogenic impacts in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and in Great South Bay and Jamaica Bay, New York. Tissue isotope ratios of Spartina alterniflora, Ulva lactuca, Fundulus heteroclitus, and Geukensia demissa were analyzed in order to determine which organisms are the most sensitive indicators of changes in anthropogenic nitrogen source and loading. Power analysis was used to determine the sample sizes necessary to detect change in nutrient source using the species sampled. Relationships between the delta15N values of the species sampled and watershed population density and residential development were evaluated. Population density was a better indicator of anthropogenic nitrogen impact than residential development, since most anthropogenic nitrogen in the study marshes was derived from wastewater. Consumer species demonstrated lower within-site variability than producer species and would therefore require smaller sample sizes to detect changes in nitrogen source and loading.     

Use of computed tomography imaging for quantifying coarse roots, rhizomes, peat, and particle densities in marsh soils

Computed tomography (CT) imaging has been used to describe and quantify subtidal, benthic animals such as polychaetes, amphipods, and shrimp. Here, for the first time, CT imaging is used to quantify wet mass of coarse roots, rhizomes, and peat in cores collected from organic-rich (Jamaica Bay, New York) and mineral (North Inlet, South Carolina) Spartina alterniflora soils. Image analysis software was coupled with the CT images to measure abundance and diameter of the coarse roots and rhizomes in marsh soils. Previously, examination of marsh roots and rhizomes was limited to various hand-sieving methods that were often time-consuming, tedious, and error prone. CT imaging can discern the coarse roots, rhizomes, and peat based on their varying particle densities. Calibration rods composed of materials with standard densities (i.e., air, water, colloidal silica, and glass) were used to operationally define the specific x-ray attenuations of the coarse roots, rhizomes, and peat in the marsh cores. Significant regression relationships were found between the CT-determined wet mass of the coarse roots and rhizomes and the hand-sieved dry mass of the coarse roots and rhizomes in both the organic-rich and mineral marsh soils. There was also a significant relationship between the soil percentage organic matter and the CT-determined peat particle density among organic-rich and mineral soils. In only the mineral soils, there was a significant relationship between the soil percentage organic matter and the CT-determined peat wet mass. Using CT imaging, significant positive nitrogen fertilization effects on the wet masses of the coarse roots, rhizomes, and peat, and the abundance and diameter of rhizomes were measured in the mineral soils. In contrast, a deteriorating salt marsh island in Jamaica Bay had significantly less mass of coarse roots and rhizomes at depth (10-20 cm), and a significantly lower abundance of roots and rhizomes compared with a stable marsh. However, the diameters of the rhizomes in the deteriorating marsh were significantly greater than in the stable marsh. CT imaging is a rapid approach to quantify coarse roots, rhizomes, peat, and soil particle densities in coastal wetlands, but the method is unable at this time to quantify fine roots.     

Evaluation of PNEC values: extrapolation from Microtox, algae, daphnid, and fish data to HC5

In order to evaluate the risk to the environment from long term exposure of any discharged substance, toxicity thresholds are estimated, and particularly the Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC). This concentration can be estimated by the classic assessment factor approach or by statistical methods. These are more scientifically sound but they require several (at least 5-6) chronic ecotoxicity data, implying greater cost and time. New extrapolation methods derived from the statistical concept but requiring less data have been studied. Results show that methods based on chronic data are more reliable than methods based on acute data but the improvement is quite small. Considering the costs of chronic tests compared to acute tests, approaches based on acute data are an attractive alternative. A simple regression on the mean of the acute data gives the best results.     

Drivers of deforestation and degradation for 28 tropical conservation landscapes

Analysing the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in conservation landscapes can provide crucial information for conservation management. While rates of forest loss can be measured through remote sensing, on the ground information is needed to confirm the commodities and actors behind deforestation. We administered a questionnaire to Wildlife Conservation Society’s landscape managers to assess the deforestation drivers in 28 tropical conservation landscapes. Commercial and subsistence agriculture were the main drivers of deforestation, followed by settlement expansion and infrastructure development. Rice, rubber, cassava and maize were the crops most frequently cited as drivers of deforestation in these emblematic conservation landscapes. Landscape managers expected deforestation trends to continue at similar or greater magnitude in the future, calling for urgent measures to mitigate these trends.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01325-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.