Forecasting Peak Daily Ozone Levels: Part 2—A Regression with Time Series Errors Model Having a Principal Component Trigger to Forecast 1999 and 2002 Ozone Levels

Abstract

A modified time series approach, a Box-Jenkins regression with time series errors (RTSE) model plus a principal component (PC) trigger, has been developed to forecast peak daily 1-hr ozone (O₃) in real time at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee North (UWM-N) during 1999 and 2002. The PC trigger acts as a predictor variable in the RTSE model. It tries to answer the question: will the next day be a possible high O₃ day? To answer this question, three PC trigger rules were developed: (1) Hi-Low Checklist, (2) Discriminant Function Approach I, and (3) Discriminant Function Approach II. Also, a pure RTSE model without including the PC trigger and a persistence approach were tested for comparison. The RTSE model with DFA I successfully forecast the only two 1-hr federal exceedances (124 ppb), one in 1999 and one in 2002. In terms of the O₃ 100-ppb exceedances, 60–80% of the incorrect forecasts occurred with incorrect PC decisions. A few others may have been caused by unexpected O_3- weather relations. When the three approaches used UWM-N data to forecast a 100-ppb exceedance somewhere in the Milwaukee, WI, metropolitan area, their performance was dramatically improved: the false alarm rate was reduced from 0.89 to 0.44, and the probability of detection was increased from 0.71 to 0.88.     

Experimental study on electrostatic charging of polymer powders in mixing processes

Powder mixing is often carried out in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Electrostatic charges generated on polymer powders during mixing may lead to electrostatic problems due to the poor conductivity of those powders. In this study, we investigated the electrostatic charges, surface potential, and apparent volume resistivity of sample powders using a simple mixing device utilizing the Faraday cup method. To neutralize the charged powders, we also applied an AC-type ionizer in the mixing study. A commercial polyethylene powder with a mean particle size of 585 μm was tested in this experiment. The charge-to-mass ratios at the end of 600 s of mixing were ?0.075 nC/g at 295 rpm agitation speed, ?0.21 nC/g at 495 rpm, and ?0.31 nC/g at 660 rpm, high enough to cause electrostatic agglomeration and adhesion. The electric fields based on the surface potential on the powders were several hundreds of V/cm, too small to give rise to brush discharge. The apparent volume resistivity of powders estimated by a simple measurement system is 1.0 × 10¹⁶ Ωm, in reasonable agreement with that acquired by the conventional test cell method (5.9 × 10¹⁵ Ωm). The charging level on the polymer powders was reduced with an AC-ionizer.     

Paper recycling and social policy

This paper examines the problems and operation of waste paper recycling in the UK. Long- and short-term forecasts for demand are developed, showing demand strongly correlated with Gross Domestic Product. These are used to simulate a buffer stock scheme and establish costs for operating such a scheme. The authors conclude, given that the only large source of waste paper not fully exploited is the householder, then grants for developing waste upgrading technologies are likely to be more effective than buffer stock schemes.     

A synthesis of convergent reflections,tensions and silences in linking gender and global environmental change research

This synthesis article joins the authors of the special issue “Gender perspectives in resilience, vulnerability and adaptation to global environmental change” in a common reflective dialogue about the main contributions of their papers. In sum, here we reflect on links between gender and feminist approaches to research in adaptation and resilience in global environmental change (GEC). The main theoretical contributions of this special issue are threefold: emphasizing the relevance of power relations in feminist political ecology, bringing the livelihood and intersectionality approaches into GEC, and linking resilience theories and critical feminist research. Empirical insights on key debates in GEC studies are also highlighted from the nine cases analysed, from Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and the Pacific. Further, the special issue also contributes to broaden the gender approach in adaptation to GEC by incorporating research sites in the Global North alongside sites from the Global South. This paper examines and compares the main approaches adopted (e.g. qualitative or mixed methods) and the methodological challenges that derive from intersectional perspectives. Finally, key messages for policy agendas and further research are drawn from the common reflection.     

Applying phytochemical analysis in the pre-selection process of plant-based substrates for biomethanation: the case of avocado oil processing byproducts

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - Phytochemicals in avocado oil processing byproducts were evaluated in this study. This information was used to make inferences use of these...     

Monitoring Mammal Populations in Costa Rican Protected Areas under Different Hunting Restrictions

Abstract: It is necessary to assess whether the management of protected areas is achieving the objectives set for them. In particular, changes and trends in wildlife populations should be documented. We compared the 1990 abundance of mammals in two Costa Rican protected areas, Corcovado National Park (CNP) and Golfo Dulce Forest Reserve (GDFR), with similar environmental characteristics but different hunting restrictions and levels of protection. We also monitored the abundance of mammals in CNP over a 4-year period. We also devised an inexpensive method of monitoring tropical rainforest mammal populations in a timely and efficient manner. The method is based on the use of mammal track records and arboreal mammal sightings and requires little effort. With this method 20 mammal species were recorded at CNP and 15 at GDFR. Species were consistently less abundant in GDFR than in CNP, principally those species preferred by hunters. Species were grouped according to whether or not they are used as food and whether they are locally or globally threatened or not threatened. The abundance of all these groups of species in GDFR was 6–28% the abundance in CNP. During 1990–1994, overall mammal abundance in CNP remained relatively stable, but there was considerable variability among species. As a group, both species used for food and globally threatened species declined in abundance during that period in CNP. The abundance of all groups of species declined from 1992 to 1994, coinciding with a reduction in hunting vigilance at CNP. Evidence suggests that the main factor differentiating the abundance of mammals in the two protected areas, and at CNP during the study period, was the level of hunting. Golfo Dulce Forest Reserve seems to be achieving only partial success in protecting wildlife, whereas Corcovado National Park seems to be considerably more effective, although not entirely successful.     

Correlation of ambient inhalable bioaerosols with particulate matter and ozone: a two-year study

In this study, we have examined the relationships between the concentrations of ambient inhalable airborne fungi and pollen with PM10, PM2.5, ozone, organic carbon, selected trace metals (cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc), temperature, and relative humidity. The database was collected in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA, during two consecutive years. Measurements of all environmental variables were performed at the same site continuously 5 days a week except during winter months. The airborne concentrations of biological and non-biological pollutants ranged as follows: total fungi: 184-16 979 spores m(-3); total pollen: 0-6692 pollen m(-3); PM10: 6.70-65.38 microg m(-3); PM2.5: 5.04-45.02 microg m(-3); and ozone: 2.54-64.17 ppb. Higher levels of total inhalable fungi and particulate matter were found during fall and summer months. In contrast, total pollen concentration showed elevated levels in spring. Peak concentrations of ozone were observed during summer and beginning of fall. Our study concluded that several types of inhalable airborne fungi and pollen, particulate matter, and ozone could be positively correlated as a result of the atmospheric temperature influence.     

Identifying correlates of success and failure of native freshwater fish reintroductions

Reintroduction of imperiled native freshwater fish is becoming an increasingly important conservation tool amidst persistent anthropogenic pressures and new threats related to climate change. We summarized trends in native fish reintroductions in the current literature, identified predictors of reintroduction outcome, and devised recommendations for managers attempting future native fish reintroductions. We constructed random forest classifications using data from 260 published case studies of native fish reintroductions to estimate the effectiveness of variables in predicting reintroduction outcome. The outcome of each case was assigned as a success or failure on the basis of the author's perception of the outcome and on whether or not survival, spawning, or recruitment were documented during post‐reintroduction monitoring. Inadequately addressing the initial cause of decline was the best predictor of reintroduction failure. Variables associated with habitat (e.g., water quality, prey availability) were also good predictors of reintroduction outcomes, followed by variables associated with stocking (e.g., genetic diversity of stock source, duration of stocking event). Consideration of these variables by managers during the planning process may increase the likelihood for successful outcomes in future reintroduction attempts of native freshwater fish. Identificación de Correlaciones de Éxito y Fracaso de Reintroducciones de Peces de Nativos Agua Dulce