Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

The ‘Perfect Storm’ metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.     

Spatial and temporal drivers of zoonotic pathogen contamination of an agricultural watershed

In regions where animal agriculture is prominent, such as southern Alberta, higher rates of gastrointestinal illness have been reported when compared with nonagricultural regions. This difference in the rate of illness is thought to be a result of increased zoonotic pathogen exposure through environmental sources such as water. In this study, temporal and spatial factors associated with bacterial pathogen contamination of the Oldman River, which transverses this region, were analyzed using classification and regression tree analysis. Significantly higher levels of fecal indicators; more frequent isolations of Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella enterica spp.; and higher rates of detection of pig-specific Bacteroides markers occurred at downstream sites than at upstream sites, suggesting additive stream inputs. Fecal indicator densities were also significantly higher when any one of these three bacterial pathogens was present and where there were higher total animal manure units; however, occasionally pathogens were present when fecal indicator levels were low or undetectable. Overall, Salmonella spp., Campylobacter spp., and E. coli O157:H7 presence was associated with season, animal manure units, and total rainfall on the day of sampling and 3 d in advance of sampling. Several of the environmental variables analyzed in this study appear to influence pathogen prevalence and therefore may be useful in predicting water quality and safety and in the improvement of watershed management practices in this and other agricultural regions.     

Energetics of mixing for the filling box and the emptying-filling box

The mixing efficiency of a plume in a filling box and an emptying-filling box is calculated for both transient and steady states. The mixing efficiency of a plume in a filling box in an asymptotic state is 1/2, independent of the details of this state or how the plume is modelled. The mixing efficiency of a plume in an emptying-filling box in steady state is \(1 - \xi \), where \(\xi = h/H\), the depth of the ambient layer h normalised by the height of the box H. A deeper mixed layer therefore corresponds to a higher mixing efficiency. These results shed light on the interpretation of mixing efficiencies of open and closed systems.

     

Correlations between in situ denitrification activity and nir-gene abundances in pristine and impacted prairie streams

Denitrification is a process that reduces nitrogen levels in headwaters and other streams. We compared nirS and nirK abundances with the absolute rate of denitrification, the longitudinal coefficient of denitrification (i.e., K_den, which represents optimal denitrification rates at given environmental conditions), and water quality in seven prairie streams to determine if nir-gene abundances explain denitrification activity. Previous work showed that absolute rates of denitrification correlate with nitrate levels; however, no correlation has been found for denitrification efficiency, which we hypothesise might be related to gene abundances. Water-column nitrate and soluble-reactive phosphorus levels significantly correlated with absolute rates of denitrification, but nir-gene abundances did not. However, nirS and nirK abundances significantly correlated with K_den, as well as phosphorus, although no correlation was found between K_den and nitrate. These data confirm that absolute denitrification rates are controlled by nitrate load, but intrinsic denitrification efficiency is linked to nirS and nirK gene abundances.     

Synchronous aggregated pseudo-copulation of the sea star <Emphasis Type="Italic">Archaster angulatus</Emphasis> Müller &; Troschel, 1842 (Echinodermata: Asteroidea) and its reproductive cycle in south-western Australia

Mass individual pairing or pseudo-copulation of the sea star Archaster angulatus was observed in November and December 2009, suggesting a late-spring/summer spawning period for this species on the west coast of Australia. Detailed measurements were made on the second of these occasions. Density of sea stars was 1.11 per m² and 68.5% were in mating pairs. Copulating pairs were mostly male on female, occasionally male on male. There was no difference in size between males and females in mating pairs. No evidence was found to indicate mating and spawning is coincident with lunar or tidal cycles. Females outnumbered males by more than 20%, but the difference in sex ratio was not statistically significant. Analysis of the reproductive cycle revealed that gonad indices reached their peak in October and declined from then until January. Histological sections of gonads confirmed that sea stars are in peak reproductive condition in October and November and are fully spent by January. Males have a much lower (ca. 1/3rd) gonad index than females when each are in peak reproductive condition, the second lowest recorded for any sea star. Pyloric caecae indices showed little annual variation and monthly averages of just 3–4% are among the lowest ever recorded for an asteroid. It is suggested that these characteristics are associated with the copulatory behaviour of the deposit feeding A. angulatus, enabling the species to maintain a high level of fertilisation success while also minimising the allocation of energy to gonad development in habitats with low or variable food availability. However, it is still difficult to explain why a species which ensures a high level of fertilisation by pseudo-copulation also does this en masse and synchronously. One hypothesis is that competition for males and the benefits of having eggs fertilised by multiple males favours both synchrony and aggregation.     

Stable isotope analysis in two sympatric populations of bottlenose dolphins <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tursiops truncatus</Emphasis>: evidence of resource partitioning?

Skin and muscle from 43 bottlenose dolphins (38 juveniles/adults, 5 calves) stranded in NW Spain were analysed to determine whether stable isotope ratios (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) could be used to assess dietary variation, habitat segregation and population substructure. Results were compared with published stomach contents data. Stable isotope ratios from 17 known prey species were also determined. Isotope ratios of the main prey (blue whiting, hake) varied significantly in relation to fish body size. Dolphin calves showed significant heavy isotope enrichments compared to adult females. Excluding calves, δ¹⁵N decreased with increasing dolphin body size, probably related to an ontogenetic shift in diet towards species at lower trophic levels, e.g. on blue whiting as suggested by stomach content results. Bottlenose dolphins were divided into two putative populations (North, South) based on previous genetic studies, and values of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N differed significantly between these two groups, confirming the existence of population structuring.     

The changing nature of the 206Pb/207Pb isotopic ratio of lead in rainwater, atmospheric particulates, pine needles and leaded petrol in Scotland, 1982-1998

The inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS)-determined 206Pb/207Pb ratio of 145 samples of rainwater collected at 25 locations around Scotland during December 1997 and January 1998 and at three longterm monitoring stations in the northeast, central belt and southeast of the country from November 1997 to December 1998 averaged 1.144+/-0.017 (1 s). This represents a significant increase from the mean value of 1.120+/-0.016 recorded for the long-term sites in 1989 1991, only partly attributable to a concomitant increase in the 206Pb/207Pb ratio of leaded petrol from 1.075+/-0.013 to 1.088+/-0.007. The rainwater 206Pb/207Pb data for the late 1990s also contrast markedly with the lower 206Pb/207Pb ratios found for pine needle and atmospheric particulate samples from Scotland (e.g. Glasgow: 1.085+/-0.012 in 1985-1986, 1.099+/-0.007 in 1991-1992), England and Western Europe in this study for the period 1982-1992 when emissions of lead to the atmosphere from petrol-engined vehicles in the UK were approximately 2-9 times higher. The observed change in the lead isotopic signature of rainwater predominantly reflects the impact of measures, such as the introduction and growing uptake of unleaded petrol, to reduce car exhaust emissions of lead to the atmosphere in the UK. Based on the rainwater data, source apportionment calculations suggest a general decline in the contribution of leaded petrol to atmospheric lead in Scotland from 53-61% in 1989-1991 to 32-45% in 1997-1998, with a corresponding decline in the urban environment from 84-86% to 48-58%.     

Biological monitoring of a pulp and paper mill wastewater

The physico-chemical testing required under the E.P.A. licence enables one to gauge the chemical effects of the APM wastewater on the Latrobe River, but it tells us nothing about likely effects on the aquatic biota. The APM bio-monitoring programme was instigated to provide evidence of any effects of wastewater discharges on the rivers biota. To date the programme has shown no adverse impact downstream. The laboratory bioassays on fish and algae have recently given way to the river fauna surveys as the regular monitor of wastewater quality. It is intended to continue with regular river surveys using the river's residents as indicators of water quality and future surveys will investigate reasons for the presently obscure variation in macro-invertebrate populations.     

Dispersion modeling to compare alternative technologies for odor remediation at swine facilities

The effectiveness of 18 alternative technologies for reducing odor dispersion at and beyond the boundary of swine facilities was assessed in conjunction with an initiative sponsored through agreements between the Attorney General of North Carolina and Smithfield Foods, Premium Standard Farms, and Frontline Farmers. The trajectory and spatial distribution of odor emitted at each facility were modeled at 200 and 400 m downwind from each site under two meteorological conditions (daytime and nighttime) using a Eulerian-Lagrangian model. To predict the dispersion of odor downwind, the geographical area containing the odorant sources at each facility was partitioned into 10-m2 grids on the basis of satellite photographs and architectural drawings. Relative odorant concentrations were assigned to each grid point on the basis of intensity measurements made by the trained odor panel at each facility using a 9-point rating scale. The results of the modeling indicated that odor did not extend significantly beyond 400 m downwind of any of the test sites during the daytime when the layer of air above the earth's surface is usually turbulent. However, modeling indicated that odor from all full-scale farms extended beyond 400 m onto neighboring property in the evenings when deep surface cooling through long-wave radiation to space produces a stable (nocturnal) boundary layer. The results also indicated that swine housing, independent of waste management type, plays a significant role in odor downwind, as do odor sources of moderate to moderately high intensity that emanate from a large surface area such as a lagoon. Human odor assessments were utilized for modeling rather than instrument measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), hydrogen sulfide, ammonia, or particulates less than 10 microm in diameter (PM10) because these physical measurements obtained simultaneously with human panel ratings were not found to accurately predict human odor intensity in the field.