EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin were determined. The study focused on two important water-resource components in the basin: (1) storage in the reservoirs that supply New York City, and (2) the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. Current reservoir operating procedures provide for releases from the New York City reservoirs to maintain the position of the salt front in the estuary downstream from freshwater intakes and ground-water recharge zones in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. A hydrologic model of the basin was developed to simulate changes in New York City reservoir storage and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary given changes in temperature and precipitation. Results of simulations indicated that storage depletion in the New York City reservoirs is a more likely effect of changes in temperature and precipitation than is the upstream movement of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. In contrast, the results indicated that a rise in sea level would have a greater effect on movement of the salt front than on storage in the New York City reservoirs. The model simulations also projected that, by decreasing current mandated reservoir releases, a balance can be reached wherein the negative effects of climate change on storage in the New York City reservoirs and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary are minimized. Finally, the results indicated that natural variability in climate is of such magnitude that its effects on water resources could overwhelm the effects of long-term trends in precipitation and temperature.     

Pollution,place, and premature death: evidence from a mid-sized city

ABSTRACT

Neighborhood life expectancy varies by as much as 10 years across the City of Louisville. In 2013, the Greater Louisville Project funded by local government, businesses, and foundations, argued these differences had little to do with environmental factors. The Greater Louisville Project (2013) study argued that these neighborhood differences could be attributed 40% to socio-economic factors (with a major emphasis on education), 10% to physical environment, 30% to health behaviors, and 20% to access to medical care. To test these claims, we construct our own model of neighborhood variation in years of potential life lost (YPLL) by adding two variables testing environmental degradation. We operationalise two separate measures of environmental contamination: proximity to EPA designated brownfield sites and proximity to chemical factories in an industrial park in the neighborhood known as “Rubbertown”. We conduct several regression analyses, which show a relationship between proximity to environmental contaminants and an increase in neighborhood YPLL. Our beta weights challenge the claims made by the Greater Louisville Project, which minimize the impact nearness to environmental contaminants has on reductions in life expectancy in Louisville neighborhoods.     

Development and validation of a method for analysis of "dioxin-like" PCBs in environmental samples from the steel industry

A method, previously used for determination of 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), has been modified for quantitative analysis of "dioxin-like" polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) in environmental samples from the steel industry. The existing sample clean-up procedure, involving liquid chromatography on multi-layered silica and Florisil columns, has been extended to include a third chromatography stage on a basic alumina stationary phase. The additional clean-up stage is required for PCB analysis in order to eliminate interferences from relatively large concentrations of saturated cyclic and aliphatic hydrocarbons. Samples were analysed for WHO-12 congeners using high resolution gas chromatography/high resolution mass spectrometry (HRGC/HRMS) and standard solutions of the method US EPA 1668A. Replicate analysis of method blanks revealed background contamination for PCBs 118, 105 and 77, which are generally abundant in ambient air. These contaminants were taken into account using a subtraction method. The entire procedure was validated by replicate analysis (N = 3) of a certified reference sediment. The RSD for each WHO-12 congener was below 15%, 13C12-labelled PCB internal standard recoveries were in the range 70-95%. A waste dust sample collected in the electrostatic precipitator of a UK sinter plant was analysed for determination of PCDD/Fs and WHO-12 PCBs and exhibited a PCDD/F I-TEQ of 148.5 +/- 21.2 ngkg(-1) and a WHO-TEQ of 7.2 +/- 1.5 ngkg(-1). WHO-12 congeners contributed only 4.6% to the overall TEQ and PCB 126 was the major congener contributing to the WHO-TEQ (96%). The contribution to the overall TEQ of the waste dust sample was mainly attributed to PCDF followed by PCDD, which accounted for 86.6% and 8.7% to the overall TEQ, respectively.     

Ten common mistakes in designing biodiversity indicators for forest policy

This paper identifies 10 common 'mistakes' in developing and using forest biodiversity indicators from the standpoint of making better forest management choices. The mistakes relate to a failure to clarify the values-basis for indicator selection and a failure to integrate science and values to design indicators that are concise, relevant and meaningful to decision makers. The combined effects of these ten mistakes include inconsistent and indefensible on-ground management strategies and hidden trade-offs at a policy level. They result in frustrated professionals, a confused public, an inability to assess performance with respect to key forest policy objectives and, almost certainly, types and amounts of biodiversity conservation that fail to achieve either scientifically or socially preferred levels. Correcting the mistakes will help to address these problems and, more generally, recognizes the need to better understand the interface between science, public values, and decision making.     

A non-policing honey bee colony (Apis mellifera capensis)

In the Cape honey bee Apis mellifera capensis, workers lay female eggs without mating by thelytokous parthenogenesis. As a result, workers are as related to worker-laid eggs as they are to queen-laid eggs and therefore worker policing is expected to be lower, or even absent. This was tested by transferring worker- and queen-laid eggs into three queenright A. m. capensis discriminator colonies and monitoring their removal. Our results show that worker policing is variable in A. m. capensis and that in one colony worker-laid eggs were not removed. This is the first report of a non-policing queenright honey bee colony. DNA microsatellite and morphometric analysis suggests that the racial composition of the three discriminator colonies was different. The variation in policing rates could be explained by differences in degrees of hybridisation between A. m. capensis and A. m. scutellata, although a larger survey is needed to confirm this.     

Relating net nitrogen input in the Mississippi River basin to nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River: a comparison of approaches

A quantitative understanding of the relationship between terrestrial N inputs and riverine N flux can help guide conservation, policy, and adaptive management efforts aimed at preserving or restoring water quality. The objective of this study was to compare recently published approaches for relating terrestrial N inputs to the Mississippi River basin (MRB) with measured nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Nitrogen inputs to and outputs from the MRB (1951 to 1996) were estimated from state-level annual agricultural production statistics and NOy (inorganic oxides of N) deposition estimates for 20 states that comprise 90% of the MRB. A model with water yield and gross N inputs accounted for 85% of the variation in observed annual nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River, from 1960 to 1998, but tended to underestimate high nitrate flux and overestimate low nitrate flux. A model that used water yield and net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) accounted for 95% of the variation in riverine N flux. The NANI approach accounted for N harvested in crops and assumed that crop harvest in excess of the nutritional needs of the humans and livestock in the basin would be exported from the basin. The U.S. White House Committee on Natural Resources and Environment (CENR) developed a more comprehensive N budget that included estimates of ammonia volatilization, denitrification, and exchanges with soil organic matter. The residual N in the CENR budget was weakly and negatively correlated with observed riverine nitrate flux. The CENR estimates of soil N mineralization and immobilization suggested that there were large (2000 kg N ha-1) net losses of soil organic N between 1951 and 1996. When the CENR N budget was modified by assuming that soil organic N levels have been relatively constant after 1950, and ammonia volatilization losses are redeposited within the basin, the trend of residual N closely matched temporal variation in NANI and was positively correlated with riverine nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Based on results from applying these three modeling approaches, we conclude that although the NANI approach does not address several processes that influence the N cycle, it appears to focus on the terms that can be estimated with reasonable certainty and that are correlated with riverine N flux.     

Radiocesium in North San Francisco Bay and Baja California coastal surface waters

Radiocesium, 137Cs, and rare earth elements (REEs) were determined in suspended material and dissolved fractions of waters across the salinity gradient in North San Francisco Bay (estuary). We describe the variation of this conservative isotope tracer with salinity and sediment load. REE data are used to differentiate marine and terrigenous source terrains for suspended material and dissolved fractions. We estimate that about 1-4 x 10(10) Bq of 137Cs migrates annually on suspended material through the North Bay. In addition, 137Cs concentrations were measured in surface waters off Baja California. Combined in situ water density (sigma(t)) and 137Cs data distinguish between California Current and Gulf of California water, and delineate areas of upwelling, where nutrient-rich, deep Pacific Intermediate water, with little or no 137Cs, is brought to the surface off promontories along Baja California.     

Assessing chronic toxicity of bisphenol A to larvae of the African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis) in a flow-through exposure system

A number of currently used industrial chemicals are estrogenic, and therefore have potential to disrupt sexual differentiation in vertebrate wildlife during critical developmental windows. We assessed the effect of larval exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) on growth, development and sexual differentiation of the gonad in the African Clawed frog, Xenopus laevis. Larvae were maintained in flow-through conditions at 22 +/- 1 degrees C and exposed to BPA at mean measured concentrations of 0.83, 2.1, 9.5, 23.8, 100, and 497 microg/l, from developmental stages 43/45-66 (completion of metamorphosis). Each test concentration, plus dilution water control (DWC) and positive control (17beta-estradiol (E2), 2.7 microg/l) employed four replicate test vessels with 40 larvae per tank. Individual froglets were removed from test vessels upon reaching stage 66, and the study was terminated at 90 days. Froglets were dissected and sex was determined by inspection of gross gonadal morphology. Test concentrations of BPA had no effect on survival, growth, developmental stage distributions at exposure days 32 and 62, or mean time to completion of metamorphosis, compared to DWC. Analysis of post-metamorphic sex ratio, determined by gross gonadal morphology, indicated no significant deviations from expected (50:50) sex ratio, in DWC or any BPA test concentration. In contrast, exposure of larvae to (E2) resulted in feminisation, with sex ratio deviating significantly (31% male, replicates pooled). Exposure to BPA in the concentration range 0.83-497 microg/l in flow-through conditions had no observable effect on larval growth, development or sexual differentiation (as determined by gross gonadal morphology) in this study.     

New advancements for in situ treatment using electrical resistance heating

Electrical resistance heating (ERH) is proving to be an effective technology to rapidly heat the subsurface and, in doing so, removing volatile organic compounds. Practitioners of this technology have observed that other processes (biodegradation, abiotic degradation, hydrolysis, and possibly others) occur to break down the chemicals of concern, and remediation is not solely accomplished through vaporization. Few sites treated using ERH have been monitored during and after treatment to identify and evaluate the processes occurring and assess the contribution of these other biological and chemical processes in the remediation effort so that they may be incorporated in the remediation design. At Fort Lewis, Washington, a landfill has been undergoing ERH treatment in three phases, where chlorinated volatile organic compounds represent the primary chemicals of concern in soil and groundwater. Other chemicals of concern include petroleum products, oils, and lubricants. The Fort Lewis remediation projects provided an opportunity to observe the reactions occurring in the subsurface during ERH and fine‐tune the study with each phase of operation. This study is still under way. However, the data gathered to date, which focuses on biodegradation, provides insights into the processes that have been observed. For the Fort Lewis site, biotic and abiotic degradation processes have been observed throughout the range of operating temperatures. At the lower temperature ranges (up to 70°C), biological processes appear to predominate. Above 70°C, abiotic processes become much more active. The goal of this work is to eventually optimize the use of these intrinsic processes in ERH remediation to reduce energy requirements and costs. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Efficiency of energy delivery systems: I. An economic and energy analysis

Energy-return-on-investment (ERI) analysis is a variation of more traditional cost-benefit analyses, a variation that is particularly important in times of diminishing fuel resources. We present a simple set of procedures for ERI analysis and apply those procedures to central New York State, where there is a proposal for a new 870 MW_e coal-fired generating station. We compared the energy and dollar costs of building that facility with the costs of an alternative comprehensive regional program of insulation. The analysis showed that regional insulation was more efficient in conserving energy than the plant was in providing it by at least a factor of 4 in economic terms and by a factor of more than 15 when viewed as energy returned on energy invested.