Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Natural Weathering Studies of Polypropylene

Polypropylene (PP) has achieved a dominating position and hence, their consumption increases thereby littering, which lead to environmental pollution. Photodegradation seems to be a better choice because of naturally available sunlight as energy source for degradation. The present work involves the study of the variation of degradation behavior of PP film during tropical summer and winter seasons. The photodegradation is followed by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic technique. Various indices like hydroxyl, carbonyl, vinylidene, lactones, ester, carboxylic acid and crystallinity are calculated and these values increased after a brief induction period. The variation in the mechanical properties like tensile strength and elongation at break percentages are determined. The scanning electron microscopic (SEM) images of weathered PP showed surface cracks when carbonyl index value increases sharply and the mechanical properties show a sudden decrease. Attempted life time prediction using mathematical models showed that the carbonyl growth is more affected by ultraviolet (UV) and cumulative total solar radiation for PP weathered during summer. The loss in tensile strength of PP weathered during summer is more dependent on the average temperature and the UV portion of the total solar radiation whereas, intensity of UV radiation has profound effect on the tensile strength of PP weathered during winter.     

The contemporary cement cycle of the United States

A country-level stock and flow model for cement, an important construction material, was developed based on a material flow analysis framework. Using this model, the contemporary cement cycle of the United States was constructed by analyzing production, import, and export data for different stages of the cement cycle. The United States currently supplies approximately 80% of its cement consumption through domestic production and the rest is imported. The average annual net addition of in-use new cement stock over the period 2000–2004 was approximately 83 million metric tons and amounts to 2.3 tons per capita of concrete. Nonfuel carbon dioxide emissions (42 million metric tons per year) from the calcination phase of cement manufacture account for 62% of the total 68 million tons per year of cement production residues. The end-of-life cement discards are estimated to be 33 million metric tons per year, of which between 30% and 80% is recycled. A significant portion of the infrastructure in the United States is reaching the end of its useful life and will need to be replaced or rehabilitated; this could require far more cement than might be expected from economic forecasts of demand for cement.     

Collective work and resilience of complex systems

This article aims to describe the characteristics of collective working situations in complex systems – especially those in nuclear power plants – related to common forms of cooperation, in order to improve systems resilience. In addition, we will try to detail some aspects of collective working situations, emphasizing the differences between various forms of control. The similarities between work activities (multi-addressed messages, linkage to regulation, central and peripheral information) are nonetheless exposed. We conclude by proposing a contribution to support systems design, thus facilitating cooperation in teamwork activities.     

Seasonal Differences in the Levels of Gaseous Air Pollutants in the Vicinity of a Waste Dump

Hydrogen sulphide, ammonia, nitrogen dioxide, mercaptans and sulphur dioxide (H₂S, NH₃, NO₂, R-SH, SO₂) concentrations were measured at the location in the vicinity of the waste dump to determine the air pollution level of these pollutants prior to the operation of the Mobile Thermal Treatment Plant. Samples were collected over one year period. Seasonal differences, and the influence of meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, pressure and wind direction) on the air pollution levels were studied. Results show relatively low concentrations of H₂S, NO₂, R-SH and SO₂, while NH₃ levels were higher compared to the guideline values. Good weather conditions (high air pressure and low relative humidity) are connected to long range transport of NO₂, while higher temperatures result in elevated NH₃ and R-SH concentrations. Because of the predominant northeast wind direction (the same as the waste dump direction), the contribution of air pollution from the direction of the waste dump at the measuring site is significant, but that does not necessarily mean that the pollutants originated from that source.     

Physico-Chemical Quality of Drinking Water in Rohtas District of Bihar

Water Quality Survey of Rohtas district of Bihar was conducted. Samples were collected from differentsources and analysed. 209 samples were collectedfrom 196 villages. Results of water quality surveyidentified the problem areas in respect of high iron,manganese, fluoride, nitrate and brackishness of water in the district.     

Effects of Smoke Emissions from a Charcoal Kiln on the Functioning of Forest Soil Systems: A Microcosm Study

Long-term charcoal production in small private charcoal kilns (CK) in Eastern Bieszczady Mts. (SE Poland) can cause local smoke contamination of the ambient forest environment. Responses of model soil systems, contaminated or not contaminated by CK smoke, to contrasting combinations of hydrothermic regimes were compared in laboratory microcosms (respiration of soil community, decomposition rate of soil organic matter and cotton stripes, herb seeds germination were studied). The majority of the obtained data show a markedly higher level of soil biological activity in the CK versus the control series. In some cases CK and control soil systems show different patterns of reactions to the tested combinations of microclimate regime. These phenomena should at least partly be attributed to the effects of CK pollution.     

Long-Term Relationship between Phosphorus Inputs and Wetland Phosphorus Concentrations in a Northern Everglades Marsh

Assessments of long-term relationships between changes innutrient inputs and wetland nutrient concentrations can becomplicated by fluctuations in other environmental factors aswell as by problems typical of long-term monitoring data.Consequently, statistical analysisof these types of data sets requirescareful consideration of environmental covariates, potentialbiases in the monitoring design, and irregularities caused bychanges in field sampling protocols. We evaluated therelationship between anthropogenic phosphorus (P) inputs andwater-column total P (TP) concentrations in a northernEverglades marsh by statistically analyzing available datacollected from several sampling programs over the past 20 years(1978–1997). Canal inputs of agricultural runoff contributemost of the P to the marsh and have produced a zone ofenrichment within the marsh during the past few decades.Regression analyses showed that both canal and marsh TPconcentrations increased during the 1980s and then decreased inthe 1990s. However, the statistical relationship between canal Pinputs and marsh TP, while significant, generally was weakexcept for marsh locations adjacent to the canal. Strongerrelationships existed between marsh TP and hydrologic parameterssuch as marsh water depth, which is controlled by changes inweather patterns and marsh management. In particular, dryconditions during the 1980s may have contributed to observedincreases in marsh P concentrations and the movement of a P`front' further into the marsh. Higher rainfall and water depthsand agricultural best management programs initiated during the1990s have been associated with reduced P concentrations incanal waters entering the marsh. While it is anticipated thatthis reduction eventually will result in lower marsh TPconcentrations, this effect is not yet evident, possibly due tointernal loading of P from enriched marsh soils. Our findingsillustrate some of the environmental factors that can complicateattempts to develop empirical relationships between P inputs andwetland P concentrations and to use such relationships to forecast changesin marsh concentrations based on past monitoring data alone.     

Accumulation of Heavy Metals in Epiphytic Lichens Near a Municipal Solid Waste Incinerator (Central Italy)

The epiphytic lichen Parmelia caperata was usedas biomonitor in the area of a municipal solid wasteincinerator (Poggibonsi, central Italy) to investigatethe levels and the spatial distribution of the heavymetals Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Pb and Zn. Levels ofAl, Cu and Hg were similar to those in unpollutedareas, whereas high values were found for Cr, Zn andespecially Cd. The distribution pattern of the lastthree metals and the exponential relationship of theirconcentrations with distance from the incinerator,showed that the disposal plant is a local source ofatmospheric pollution due to Cd, Cr and Zn. For thesemetals, long-term hazard should be seriously taken into account.     

A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.