Characterizing effects of uncertainties in MSW composting process through a coupled fuzzy vertex and factorial-analysis approach

A coupled fuzzy vertex and factorial-analysis approach was developed in this study for systematically characterizing effects of uncertainties in a municipal solid waste composting process. A comprehensive composting process model was also embedded into the system framework and used to address substrate decomposition and biomass growth, as well as the interactions between moisture contents, temperatures, and oxygen concentrations. The applicability of the proposed method was verified through a custom-made pilot-scale composting system. Results from fuzzy simulation indicated that the fuzzy vertex method could effectively communicate implicit knowledge into dynamic simulations and thus provide valuable information for enhancing composting process control under uncertainty. The factorial analysis was effective in quantifying the proportion to which the uncertainty of each single or interactive effect of model parameters contributes to the overall uncertainty of the system outcomes. Thus, sensitive parameters that may lead to errors or unreasonable predictions can be determined. The proposed study system could not only be used in characterizing combined effects of uncertainties for composting processes, but was also applicable to many other environmental modelling systems.     

Multiple song repertoire characteristics in the willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus): correlations with female choice and offspring viability

Male willow warblers have song repertoires which vary in complexity along several dimensions. We examined whether female choice, as measured by date of pairing, was based on these song characteristics in 4 different years. Pairing date was negatively correlated with song repertoire size in 1 year, and with song versatility in another year, but there was no consistent effect of any song characteristic on pairing throughout the years or in the pooled sample. The variable that best explained how soon a male pairs is male arrival date (only males that had settled territories before the first female arrived were considered in the analysis). This correlation is consistently significant in all years. This is most parsimoniously interpreted as females choosing some habitat characteristic in the same way that males do. A small percentage of males (8.3%) attracted and paired with a second female. The likelihood of becoming polygynous was not explained by any measured song characteristic, but it was related to arrival date: early males were more likely to pair with two females. Males with large repertoires fledged more young in their primary nests, and there was a trend for the offspring of these males to have a greater probability of being recruited into the population. In conclusion, the results show that in most years there is no sexual selection by female preference on song characteristics, although the data on reproductive success is consistent with the idea of repertoire size being an indicator of male quality. Received: 4 June 1999 / Received in revised form: 1 December 1999 / Accepted: 31 December 1999     

Assessing the Geographic Representativeness of Genebank Collections: the Case of Bolivian Wild Potatoes

Abstract: Genebank collection databases can be used for ecogeographical studies under the assumption that the accessions are a geographically unbiased sample. We evaluated the representativeness of a collection of wild potatoes from Bolivia and defined and assessed four types of bias: species, species-area, hotspot, and infrastructure. Species bias is the sampling of some species more often than others. Species-area bias is a sampling that is disproportionate to the total area in which a species is found. Hotspot bias is the disproportionate sampling of areas with high levels of diversity. Infrastructure bias is the disproportionate sampling of areas near roads and towns. Each of these biases is present in the Bolivian wild potato collection. The infrastructure bias was strong: 60% of all wild potato accessions were collected within 2 km of a road, as opposed to 22%, if collections had been made randomly. This analysis can serve as a guide for future collecting trips. It can also provide baseline information for the application of genebank data in studies based on geographic information systems.     

An Evaluation of Restoration Efforts in Fishless Lakes Stocked with Exotic Trout

Abstract: Detrimental effects of introduced fishes on native amphibian populations have prompted removal of introduced cutthroat ( Oncorhynchus clarki ), rainbow ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and brook trout (  Salvelinus fontinalis ) from naturally fishless lakes at Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington ( U.S.A.). Using paleolimnological indicators (diatoms, invertebrates, and sediment characteristics) in eight 480-year-old sediment cores from eight lakes, we (1) derived estimates of baseline environmental conditions and natural variation, (2) assessed the effects of stocking naturally fishless lakes, and (3) determined whether lakes returned to predisturbance conditions after fish removal (restoration). Diatom floras were relatively stable between 315 and 90 years before present in all lakes; we used this time period to define lake-specific "baseline" conditions. Dissimilarity analyses of diatoms revealed sustained, dramatic changes in diatom floras that occurred approximately 80 years ago (when fish were introduced) in four of five stocked lakes, whereas the diatom floras in two unstocked lakes had not changed significantly in the last 315 years. Diatoms were not preserved in an eighth lake. State changes also occurred in two lakes over 200 years before European settlement of the Pacific Northwest. Preserved invertebrate densities fluctuated dramatically over time in all cores, providing a poor reference for assessing the effects of fishes. Nevertheless, fish-invertebrate interactions have been demonstrated in other paleolimnological studies and may be useful for lower-elevation or more productive lakes. Because diatom communities have not returned to predisturbance assemblages in restored lakes, even 20–30 years after fish removal, we conclude that Mt. Rainier lakes were not successfully restored by the removal of fishes.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Size-related aspects of arm damage, tissue mechanics, and autotomy in the starfish Asterias rubens

 Arm damage is a widely reported but superficially investigated aspect of the biology of the starfish Asterias rubens L. In the present study, the incidence of arm damage was surveyed in populations of A.  rubens at two sites in the Firth of Clyde, Scotland, and three sites in Gullmarsfjorden, Sweden. The mean (±SD) incidence across all sites of individuals with basal arm damage (resulting from detachment at the basal autotomy plane) was 19.69 ± 8.86%, the incidence of those with distal arm damage (resulting from amputation at more distal levels) was 7.74 ± 10.01%. The mean incidence of arms with basal damage was 5.28 ± 4.12%, of those with distal damage 1.83 ± 2.45%. There was a significant negative correlation between size and the incidence of basal damage at all but one site, but no significant correlation between size and distal damage at any site. Mechanical tests on specimens of the aboral body wall from the basal region of the arm (which included the autotomy plane) and from a more distal region revealed that with increasing body size there was a significant increase in yield stress, ultimate stress and Young's modulus (stiffness) but no significant change in yield strain and ultimate strain. There was no significant difference between the relationships for basal and distal specimens. It is hypothesised that in larger individuals increased mechanical toughness replaces autotomy as an effective antipredator strategy. Using two methods to induce autotomy, a significant positive correlation between size and the delay between the onset of stimulation and arm detachment was found; this may represent a size-related decline in the efficiency of the autotomy mechanism through the relaxation of selection pressure. Since size is an unreliable indicator of age in A.  rubens, the trends identified herein can be interpreted only tentatively as age-associated phenomena. Received: 4 September 1999 / Accepted: 17 February 2000     

Metabolic differences between “demersal” and “pelagic” development of the Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri

 Early development of the Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri was examined under two differ-ent culture regimes: one to simulate development near-bottom (“demersal development”) and the other to simulate the development of embryos in the water column (“pelagic development”). When embryos of both treatments reached the hatching blastula stage at 5 d post-fertilization (−1.5 °C), the blastulae that had undergone demersal development evidenced significant differences (by ANOVA or suitable non-parametric comparison) in the following: a thicker blastoderm layer (12%, P < 0.001), higher ash-free dry weights (19%, P < 0.01), lower mass-specific respiration rates (50%, P < 0.001), higher incorporation rates of ³⁵S-methionine into protein (23%, P < 0.003), and a differential pattern of protein synthesis. When embryos developed demersally, they remained in the jelly-coat material released with the eggs at spawning. Quantitative isolation of this jelly-coat material in S. neumayeri demonstrated that it contained a significant amount of organic matter, 115 ng ash-free dry mass per egg, equivalent to 17% of the egg's initial organic mass. Uptake of external nutrients during embryogenesis may be a significant component of the physiological energetics of this polar invertebrate by allowing the utilization of jelly-coat material released by a female during spawning. Received: 21 April 1999 / Accepted: 5 June 2000     

Short retention times of stomach temperature loggers in free-living seabirds: is there hope in the spring?

Stomach temperature loggers have proved useful for the study of feeding activity in free-living seabirds, but their usage has been restricted because they are frequently dislodged and lost during the seabirds' regular regurgitation of indigestible prey remains. In the present study we examine the incidence of spontaneous regurgitation (pellet production) in free-living seabirds, consider the effect this has on the likely retrieval of stomach temperature loggers and present a structural modification of the logger housings which leads to a much lower incidence of regurgitation. Systems were tested on albatrosses, cormorants, gannets and penguins. Received: 15 July 1997 / Accepted: 31 October 1997     

Recovery of benthic communities at Macquarie Island (sub-Antarctic) following a small oil spill

Intertidal communities at Macquarie Island (sub-Antarctic) were re-evaluated seven years after a small oil spill resulting from the grounding of the “Nella Dan”, and six years after the first assessment of biological impact. Sampling was conducted to evaluate community structure in three zones of the exposed rocky shore (upper red, kelp, and lower red) and in samples of Durvillaea antarctica holdfasts. There were no significant differences between the community structure in oiled and control locations in any of the three shore zones, but holdfast macrofaunal communities at oiled sites still showed evidence of impact. Holdfast community-structure in samples from heavily oiled sites showed moderate levels of recovery, with increased abundances of species which were considered sensitive to the oiling in the first post-impact studies and decreased abundances of opportunistic polychaete and oligochaete worms. In contrast, samples collected from the moderately oiled location at Secluded Bay showed little evidence of recovery. Holdfasts at this site were filled with sediment containing traces of diesel oil, and the macrofaunal community was dominated by opportunistic worms. This study clearly indicates that even small incidents of anthropogenic perturbation can have long-lasting consequences for marine communities at Macquarie Island. Received: 23 July 1997 / Accepted: 5 February 1998     

Effects of Trichodesmium spp. blooms on penaeid prawn larvae

The effects of blooms of the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp. on penaeid prawn larvae were examined using in situ and laboratory rearing experiments and plankton surveys in Albatross Bay, Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. The in situ experiments demonstrated that, during a bloom of Trichodesmium spp., larvae of the prawn Penaeus merguiensis did not develop beyond the first protozoea stage, and survival was low compared with times when diatoms were dominant in the same study area. Laboratory experiments confirmed the in situ results. None of the prawn larvae fed Trichodesmium sp. in laboratory experiments developed beyond the first protozoeal stage. In contrast, 94% of prawn larvae fed the green flagellate Tetraselmis suecica successfully developed to the second protozoea stage. Electron microscopy of larvae gut-contents revealed that Trichodesmium spp. were ingested by larvae but were of no nutritional value, resulting in starvation. A 7 yr plankton survey, from 1985 to 1992, showed that minimum abundance of prawn larvae occurs during the annual summer blooms of Trichodesmium spp. and that maximum abundance of prawn larvae generally occurs just after the bloom. There was a negative correlation between the abundance of larvae and the abundance of Trichodesmium at individual sites, one offshore and one inshore, indicating that the blooms affect the survival of larvae. We conclude that variations in both timing and magnitude of Trichodesmium blooms are important determinants of prawn larvae abundance in Albatross Bay. Received: 28 April 1997 / Accepted: 2 April 1998