Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mammal

Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975–2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km² corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights.     

Microtargeting for conservation

Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high-resolution land-cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.     

Genetic amniocentesis: 505 cases performed before the sixteenth week of gestation

Between May 1987 and November 1988, 505 early amniocentesis within the 15th week of gestation were performed at the First Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology,‘L. Mangiagalli’ of the University of Milan and at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology of ‘Gaslini’ hospital in Genoa. A total number often abnormal fetal karyotypes were diagnosed. In addition, one case of pseudomosaicism (not confirmed on fetal blood) and one case of osteogenesis imperfecta type II (observed at ultrasound examination) were also detected. Eleven pregnancies were therefore terminated because of an abnormal fetus. Out of 494 pregnancies (excluding terminated pregnancies) there were 16 fetal losses within the 28th week; ten of these occurred in the 2 weeks following the procedure. There were 475 live-births, of which 447 were term deliveries and the other 28 deliveries occurred before the 37th week of gestation.     

Determinants of parental decisions to abort for chromosome abnormalities

Parental decisions concerning the continuation of pregnancy following prenatal detection of abnormal chromosomes were evaluated for 80 patients whose diagnosis and prenatal counselling were performed in our centre. Twenty-two anomalies were diagnosed by chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and 58 by amniocentesis. The severity of the chromosome anomaly and associated ultrasound findings in the first vs. second trimester were correlated with patients' decisions. No difference was found in the likelihood of parental decisions to interrupt or continue a pregnancy between CVS and amniocentesis for either the‘severe’ or the‘questionable’ group of chromosome anomalies. Ninety-three per cent of patients with severe prognosis and 27 per cent with questionable prognosis opted for pregnancy termination (p <0·0001). The association of ultrasound anomalies and termination was highly significant (p< 0·001). The severity of the chromosome anomaly, and, to a lesser extent, the visualization of anomalies on ultrasound were the major determinants of parental decisions to terminate the pregnancy. The diagnosis of an anomaly in the first trimester was no more likely ito lead to a termination of pregnancy than in the second trimester.     

Transvaginal chorionic villus sampling

Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) with either transcervical catheters or transabdominal needles is a widely-accepted method for prenatal diagnosis. However, there exists a small subset of patients in whom sampling is difficult or impossible with either route because of individual anatomic variations. A new method of chorionic villus biopsy has been developed to circumvent these problems, utilizing transvaginal chorionic needle aspiration guided by an intravaginal ultrasound probe. This technique was performed successfully in 15 patients in whom villi could not be obtained by either of the conventional methods. This method now makes CVS possible in essentially all women regardless of their uterine anatomy or placental placement; it may also prove useful for very early chorionic sampling.     

Resolution of DNA linkage discrepancies through analysis of a VNTR locus in a family study of cystic fibrosis

First-trimester prenatal diagnosis of a fetus at 25 per cent risk for cystic fibrosis (CF) was performed by indirect linkage analysis of polymorphic markers using Southern blotting and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification. The results revealed discrepancies in the allelic patterns between the father and the affected child, thereby complicating the prediction of fetal outcome. Analysis of a highly polymorphic VNTR locus within the human retinoblas-toma (RB) gene on chromosome 13 showed that the affected child and the fetus did not have the same biological father, and therefore the affected child could not be used to determine linkage of markers in the father of the fetus. The analysis of VNTR loci can be an effective method of resolving conflicting data during prenatal diagnosis of monogenic diseases.     

Comparison of Short-Term Variations (15-Minute Averages) in Outdoor and Indoor PM2.5 Concentrations

ABSTRACT

Measurements of 15-min average PM_2.5 concentrations were made with a real-time light-scattering instrument at both outdoor (central monitoring sites in three communities) and indoor (residential) locations over two seasons in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. These data are used to examine within-day variability of PM_2.5 concentrations indoors and outdoors, as well as matched indoor-to-outdoor (I/O) ratios. Concurrent gravimetric measurements of 24-hr average PM_2.5 concentrations were also obtained as a way to compare real-time measures with this more traditional metric. Results indicate that (1) within-day variability for both indoor and outdoor 15-min average PM_2.5 concentrations was substantial and comparable in magnitude to day-to-day variability for 24hr average concentrations; (2) some residences exhibited substantial variability in indoor aerosol characteristics from one day to the next; (3) peak values for indoor short-term (15-min) average PM_2.5 concentrations routinely exceeded 24-hr average outdoor values by factors of 3-4; and (4) relatively strong correlations existed between indoor and outdoor PM_2.5 concentrations for both 24-hr and 15-min averages.     

Development of a Sample Equilibration System for the TEOM Continuous PM Monitor

ABSTRACT

In recent years, scientific discussion has included the influence of thermodynamic conditions (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and filter face velocity) on PM retention efficiency of filter-based samplers and monitors. Method-associated thermodynamic conditions can, in some instances, dramatically influence the presence of particle-bound water and other light-molecular-weight chemical components such as particulate nitrates and certain organic compounds. The measurement of fine particle mass presents a new challenge for all PM measurement methods, since a relatively greater fraction of the mass is semi-volatile.

The tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) continuous PM monitor is a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PM₁₀ equivalent method (EQPM-1090-079). Several hundred of these monitors are deployed throughout the United States. The TEOM monitor has the unique characteristic of providing direct PM mass measurement without the calibration uncertainty inherent in mass surrogate methods. In addition, it provides high-precision, near-real-time continuous data automatically. Much attention has been given to semi-volatile species retention of the TEOM method.

While using this monitor, it is desirable to maintain as low an operating temperature as practical and to remove unwanted particle-bound water. A new sample equilibration system (SES) has been developed to allow conditioning of the PM sample stream to a lower humidity and temperature level. The SES incorporates a special low-particle-loss Nafion dryer. This paper discusses the configuration and theory of the SES. Performance results include high time-resolved PM_2.5 data comparison between a 30 °C sample stream TEOM monitor with SES and a standard 50 °C TEOM monitor. In addition, 24-hr integrated data are compared with data collected using an EPA PM_2.5 Federal Reference Method (FRM)-type sampler. The SES is a significant development because it can be applied easily to existing TEOM monitors.     

Electricity from Fossil Fuels without CO2 Emissions: Assessing the Costs of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration in U.S. Electricity Markets

ABSTRACT

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO₂ emissions via CO₂ capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO₂ mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO₂ capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a “bottom-up” engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Development of Emission Factors for Polycarbonate Processing

Abstract

Emission factors for selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate emissions were developed while processing eight commercial grades of polycarbonate (PC) and one grade of a PC/acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) blend. A small commercial-type extruder was used, and the extrusion temperature was held constant at 304 °C. An emission factor was calculated for each substance measured and is reported as pounds released to the atmosphere/million pounds of polymer resin processed [ppm (wt/wt)]. Scaled to production volumes, these emission factors can be used by processors to estimate emission quantities from similar PC processing operations.