Socio-economic research in support of climate policy development: Mistra's Research Program Clipore

Mistra's Climate Policy Research Program, Clipore, is one of the largest research programs directed to support international climate policy development, involving research groups in Sweden, Norway, United States and India. It has been running from 2004 to 2011 with a budget of more than 100 MSEK (15?M USD). The paper briefly describes the program and its outcomes in relation to climate policy development. Discussion focuses on how the program has been able to be in the front of and include the development of emissions trading systems in Europe and the United States and how the program has been able to follow and produce inputs to the agenda of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The paper also discusses how the program has managed to present its outcomes and maintain an active dialogue with the various stakeholders. The paper emphasises options and obstacles in the communication between science and policy.     

Chemical compounds of the foraging recruitment pheromone in bumblebees

When the frenzied and irregular food-recruitment dances of bumblebees were first discovered, it was thought that they might represent an evolutionary prototype to the honeybee waggle dance. It later emerged that the primary function of the bumblebee dance was the distribution of an alerting pheromone. Here, we identify the chemical compounds of the bumblebee recruitment pheromone and their behaviour effects. The presence of two monoterpenes and one sesquiterpene (eucalyptol, ocimene and farnesol) in the nest airspace and in the tergal glands increases strongly during foraging. Of these, eucalyptol has the strongest recruitment effect when a bee nest is experimentally exposed to it. Since honeybees use terpenes for marking food sources rather than recruiting foragers inside the nest, this suggests independent evolutionary roots of food recruitment in these two groups of bees.     

The determination of partition coefficients of organic compounds in technical products and waste waters for the estimation of their bioaccumulation potential using reversed phase thin layer chromatography

Reversed phase thin layer chromatography (RPTLC) has been investigated for the estimation of octanol/water partition coefficients (P), an important parameter for the prediction of the environmental behaviour of organic chemicals. A strong correlation between P derived from the traditional octanol/water system and RPTLC has been established over five orders of magnitude. RPTLC data are likewise correlated to results obtained by high performance chromatography (HPLC). Due to the low costs, simplicity and separation power RPTLC is especially suited for the investigation and screening of mixtures of compounds before more complicated tests are involved.

Results from a round robin test on the determination of partition coefficients by HPLC, RPTLC and the batch method indicate the simplicity and accuracy of the RPTLC technique. Applications of the RPTLC‐technique on technical products and industrial waste waters are described.     

Chaos and complexity in development

SUMMARY

The paper outlines some main features of chaos theory. Examples of chaotic systems in society and the environment are given. Spontaneous interaction of components, without being planned or directed, is known as ‘self-organising behaviour’. Chaos is an essential aspect of this self organisation, occurring in many forms. A chaotic system is defined as one that shows sensitivity to initial conditions. If the errors relative to the initial conditions become too great, the system will eventually collapse. Development projects are sensitive to such initial conditions. In particular, two examples in development are outlined in some detail and commented upon. One is the occurrence of a project promoting self-organising systems among the poorest of the poor. The other outlines how rehabilitation after resettlement in a power project has transgressed the ‘edge of chaos’ socio-emotionally, in spite of the socioeconomic development being good.     

Solutions for characterising natural landscapes in New Zealand using geographical information systems

This paper explores solutions for characterising naturalness in relation to visual landscapes using Geographical Information System (GIS). It is argued that planners need to identify natural landscapes and monitor changes in their extent. Just like the indices that have been developed to describe the state of the economy, indices need to be developed that monitor the state of natural landscapes. The complications in characterising natural landscapes are outlined but it is argued that there is a need to develop definitions of natural landscapes that can be operationalised with a GIS. This will have the advantages of the efficiency of the technology and that the definition will be explicit and the implementation will be independent of the operator. Several GIS solutions are provided and these are an analysis of landcover, a density analysis of roads and utilities, and an analysis of property sizes. The analysis of property sizes is sensitive to many human modifications of the landscape because many developments begin with the subdivision of properties. However, it is argued in this paper that no one definition will suffice and that all three methods provide different, yet important, insights into natural landscape character. An aggregate classification of naturalness based on the majority value of the indices is demonstrated as well as a range of techniques for expressing the uncertainty of the aggregate classification.     

International comparative study of 3R and waste management policy developments

Reduce, reuse, and recycle (3R) policies form the basis of waste management and global warming countermeasures globally, so we conducted a comparative study of 3R and waste management policies in the European Union (EU), USA, Korea, Japan, China, and Vietnam. An international workshop for 3R and waste management policymakers was held in Kyoto, Japan, and a bibliographic survey was also conducted to collect data. 3R policies are clearly given priority in the hierarchy of waste management in every country studied. Thermal recovery, which includes power generation from waste heat and methane gas collected from organic waste, is also a priority; this is consistent with the increased use of countermeasures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the EU, waste management is characterized by practical and effective 3R policies through the development of realistic regulations and by the policymakers??desire to simplify management systems. The policy ideal in China, however, is the development of a circular economy that targets reductions in the amount and hazardousness of waste. Limits on the number of final disposal sites, strategies for procuring resources, and GHG emission countermeasures are closely linked with 3R policies, and further development of 3R policies in parallel with such issues is expected.     

Rapid decline of persistent organochlorine pollutants in serum among young Swedish males

To investigate a possible time trend in serum concentrations of persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs), representative samples of the young (median age 18 years) Swedish male population were investigated in the years 2000 and 2004. Due to their low age, these men were assumed not to have reached steady state of body burdens of POPs, why their serum concentrations were considered to represent ongoing dietary exposure. Serum concentrations of 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (CB-153) and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl)-ethylene (p,p'-DDE), two biomarkers of exposure to POPs, were available for 274 and 223 men, respectively, in 2000 and for 200 men in 2004. The percentage of men with CB-153 or p,p'-DDE below the limit of detection (LOD) was significantly higher in 2004 than in 2000 (30% vs. none, p < 0.001 for CB-153 and 65% vs. 6%, p < 0.001 for p,p'-DDE). Moreover, the median serum concentration of CB-153 decreased from 66 ng g(-1) lipid to 19 ng g(-1), corresponding to a yearly decrease of about 26%. The analogous analysis was not done for p,p'-DDE since the median serum concentration in 2004 was below the LOD.     

从亚马孙泛滥平原森林中获取林产品的经济重要性

秘鲁亚马孙流域的农民从事农业,同时从天然林,河流和湖泊中获取各种各样的产品,他们多样化的生活方式包括捕鱼,狞猎和采集植物产品.在2个泛滥平原的村庄里,我们已经收集了一年的资料对当地农业经济与为满足生活基本需求和商业贸易的林业经济进行比较.此研究中的林产品包括动物产品(狞猎和捕鱼)和植物产品(木材和非木材).结果表明为了生活需要而获取的林产品尤其是鱼,是当地经济的支柱.获取林产品的日净收入高于种植和非熟练工人正常的日工资收入,这说明在实施任何土地开发利用的决策之前对社会经济情况进行全面的调查研究显得尤为重要.每公顷天然林可获取林产品的价值为平均每年13美元,平均每户可利用的天然林面积为113hm2.如果把农业产出也计算在内的话,每公顷土地的总产值(包括农业和林业)就上升到每年21美元.     

Effects of zooplankton diel vertical migration on a phytoplankton community: A scenario analysis of the underlying mechanisms

A mechanistic model was applied to study the influence of diurnal vertical migration (DVM) of planktonic crustaceans on the succession and composition of the phytoplankton community. While zooplankton was restricted to only one functional group, the phytoplankton community was divided into two functional groups which are distinguished by their maximum growth rates and vulnerability to zooplankton grazing. DVM causes a pulsed grazing regime and may also entail a corresponding reduction of the cumulative daily rates of ingestion and losses of zooplankton. To study the relative importance of these two mechanisms of DVM to phytoplankton we performed a scenario analysis consisting of 5 different scenarios. The results show that DVM has a strong influence on the phytoplankton community. Well edible algae benefit during the first 3–4 weeks of summer stratification by reduced daily grazing. The typical shift from small, well edible algae to larger, poorly or non-edible phytoplankton is distinctly delayed. Under the assumption of unchanged daily grazing, however, a pulsed grazing regime has nearly no influence on the resulting phytoplankton composition. As similar effects are also found for completely non-edible phytoplankton, indirect effects via phosphorus availability must be assumed. Thus, the scenario analysis reveals that the observed effects of DVM on phytoplankton can be explained by a combination of two mechanisms: (1) reduction of the daily zooplankton grazing, and (2) changed assimilation and remineralisation of phosphorus. Surprisingly and in contradiction to earlier reports there is almost no DVM effect on phytoplankton due to the sole action of a pulsed grazing regime.     

The effects of congestions tax on air quality and health

The “Stockholm Trial” involved a road pricing system to improve the air quality and reduce traffic congestion. The test period of the trial was January 3–July 31, 2006. Vehicles travelling into and out of the charge cordon were charged for every passage during weekdays. The amount due varied during the day and was highest during rush hours (20 SEK = 2.2 EUR, maximum 60 SEK per day). Based on measured and modelled changes in road traffic it was estimated that this system resulted in a 15% reduction in total road use within the charged cordon. Total traffic emissions in this area of NO_x and PM10 fell by 8.5% and 13%, respectively. Air quality dispersion modelling was applied to assess the effect of the emission reductions on ambient concentrations and population exposure. For the situations with and without the trial, meteorological conditions and other emissions than from road traffic were kept the same. The calculations show that, with a permanent congestion tax system like the Stockholm Trial, the annual average NO_x concentrations would be lower by up to 12% along the most densely trafficked streets. PM10 concentrations would be up to 7% lower. The limit values for both PM10 and NO₂ would still be exceeded along the most densely trafficked streets. The total population exposure of NO_x in Greater Stockholm (35 × 35 km with 1.44 million people) is estimated to decrease with a rather modest 0.23 μg m^?3. However, based on a long-term epidemiological study, that found an increased mortality risk of 8% per 10 μg m^?3 NO_x, it is estimated that 27 premature deaths would be avoided every year. According to life-table analysis this would correspond to 206 years of life gained over 10 years per 100 000 people following the trial if the effects on exposures would persist. The effect on mortality is attributed to road traffic emissions (likely vehicle exhaust particles); NO_x is merely regarded as an indicator of traffic exposure. This is only the tip of the ice-berg since reductions are expected in both respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity. This study demonstrates the importance of not only assessing the effects on air quality limit values, but also to make quantitative estimates of health impacts, in order to justify actions to reduce air pollution.