A note on natural production functions

Two techniques are presented for estimation of natural animal populations, both of which may incorporate the effect of pollutants on populations. Both techniques assume specific underlying population dynamics which may not be applicable to certain species or ecosystems. However, both techniques allow for testing the hypothesis that the population dynamics specified is applicable. The techniques are used to criticize two recent empirical investigations of fisheries.     

The sensitivity of surface waters of Great Britain to acidification predicted from catchment characteristics

Using a combination of soil, land use and geological information, a map of Great Britain has been derived which indicates the sensitivity of surface waters to acidification. For the geological information, a slightly modified version of an available map was used which indicated the sensitivity of groundwaters to acidification. For soils, 1-km databases of soil information for England and Wales and for Scotland were employed to map the soil sensitivity as determined by buffering capacity. The derived soils map was modified to take account of agricultural liming in arable and managed grassland areas using the ITE Land Classification. The final map of surface water sensitivity was obtained by using a geographic information system overlay procedure which enabled each combination of soil and geology sensitivity to be uniquely defined. The final sensitivity classification was based upon expert knowledge and the experience of a similar sensitivity mapping exercise for Wales.     

The major accident risk (MAR) process - developing the profile of major accident risk for a large multi national oil company

The paper describes a programme to develop the profile of major accident risk across a large multi national oil company. It describes the concepts, tools and processes for constructing the risk profile and some of the key learnings from the exercise.     

Application of slipstreamed air pollution control devices on waste-as-fuel processes

The recovery of energy from the combustion of municipal solid wastes is becoming an attractive alternative as landfill space becomes scarce and the availability of fossil fuels decreases. Particulate emissions from “waste-as-fuel” processes, however, may differ significantly in chemical and physical properties from particulate emissions produced by firing only coal. Such differences can affect the design and operation of air pollution control equipment. Presented in this paper are the results of a 2-month test program at Ames, Iowa, with a mobile electrostatic precipitator (ESP) and a mobile scrubber supplied by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Industrial Environmental Research Laboratory (IERL), Research Triangle Park. PEDCo Environmental, Inc., and Acurex Corporation jointly conducted the test program to examine the effect of burning refuse-derived fuel (RDF) on particulate and heavy metal control efficiencies. The mobile ESP was used only as a primary control device, whereas the mobile scrubber was tested both upstream and downstream of the existing full-scale ESP. This paper also presents a status report on a PEDCo test program with a pilot fabric filter at Ames.     

Social-ecological system resonance: a theoretical framework for brokering sustainable solutions

Sustainability science is a solution-oriented discipline. Yet, there are few theory-rich discussions about how this orientation structures the efforts of sustainability science. We argue that Niklas Luhmann’s social system theory, which explains how societies communicate problems, conceptualize solutions, and identify pathways towards implementation of solutions, is valuable in explaining the general structure of sustainability science. From Luhmann, we focus on two key concepts. First, his notion of resonance offers us a way to account for how sustainability science has attended and responded to environmental risks. As a product of resonance, we reveal solution-oriented research as the strategic coordination of capacities, resources, and information. Second, Luhmann’s interests in self-organizing processes explain how sustainability science can simultaneously advance multiple innovations. The value logic that supports this multiplicity of self-organizing activities as a recognition that human and natural systems are complex coupled and mutually influencing. To give form to this theoretical framework, we offer case evidence of renewable energy policy formation in Texas. Although the state’s wealth is rooted in a fossil-fuel heritage, Texas generates more electricity from wind than any US state. It is politically antagonistic towards climate-change policy, yet the state’s reception of wind energy technology illustrates how social and environmental systems can be strategically aligned to generate solutions that address diverse needs simultaneously. This case demonstrates that isolating climate change—as politicians do as a separate and discrete problem—is incapable of achieving sustainable solutions, and resonance offers researchers a framework for conceptualizing, designing, and communicating meaningfully integrated actions.     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Postemergence Control of Microstegium vimineum on Riparian Restoration Sites with Aquatic‐Use Registered Herbicides

Microstegium vimineum is an invasive grass introduced from Asia that has spread throughout riparian areas of the eastern United States threatening native riparian vegetation. Postemergence (POST) herbicides registered for aquatic use were evaluated for control of M. vimineum on two riparian restoration sites in the Piedmont and Upper Coastal Plain of North Carolina. This study found that standard and lower than standard rates of diquat, fluridone, flumioxazin, glyphosate, imazamox, and imazapyr reduced weed stem density and biomass at 6 and 30 weeks after treatment (WAT). Both rates of bispyribac and penoxsulam provided less control of M. vimineum. Visual ratings showed both rates of diquat, flumioxazin, imazamox, and imazapyr controlled 63‐100% of M. vimineum at 6 WAT and 84‐100% at 30 WAT. Fluridone and glyphosate provided slightly less control. Bispyribac and penoxsulam treatments provided less control at 6 and 30 WAT compared to the other treatments. Plots treated with both rates of diquat, flumioxazin, imazamox, and imazapyr were nearly devoid of all vegetation at 30 WAT. Recommendations include POST application of lower than standard rates of diquat, flumioxazin, fluridone, glyphosate, imazamox, and imazapyr on riparian restoration sites infested with M. vimineum. Immediate vegetation management measures including temporary and permanent plant cover should be employed on treated sites where weeds are completely eradicated to prevent erosion.