Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Trajectories of change in sagebrush steppe vegetation communities in relation to multiple wildfires

Repeated perturbations, both biotic and abiotic, can lead to fundamental changes in the nature of ecosystems, including changes in state. Sagebrush steppe communities provide important habitat for wildlife and grazing for livestock. Fire is an integral part of these systems, but there is concern that increased ignition frequencies and invasive species are fundamentally altering them. Despite these issues, the majority of studies of fire effects in systems dominated by Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis have focused on the effects of single burns. The Arid Lands Ecology Reserve (ALE), in south-central Washington (U.S.A.), was one of the largest contiguous areas of sagebrush steppe habitat in the state until large wildfires burned the majority of it in 2000 and 2007. We analyzed data from permanent vegetation transects established in 1996 and resampled in 2002 and 2009. Our objective was to describe how the fires, and subsequent postfire restoration efforts, affected communities' successional pathways. Plant communities differed in response to repeated fire and restoration; these differences could largely be ascribed to the functional traits of the dominant species. Low-elevation communities, previously dominated by obligate seeders, moved furthest from their initial composition and were dominated by weedy, early-successional species in 2009. Higher-elevation sites with resprouting shrubs, native bunchgrasses, and few invasive species were generally more resilient to the effects of repeated disturbances. Shrub cover has been almost entirely removed from ALE, although there was some recovery where communities were dominated by resprouters. Bromus tectorum dominance was reduced by herbicide application in areas where it was previously abundant, but it increased significantly in untreated areas. Several resprouting species, notably Phlox longifolia and Poa secunda, expanded remarkably following competitive release from shrub canopies and/or abundant B. tectorum. Our results suggest that community dynamics can be understood through a state and transition model with two axes (shrub/grass and native/invasive abundance), although such models also need to account for differences in plant functional traits and disturbance regimes. We use our results to develop a conceptual model that will be validated with further research.     

Large carnivore hunting and the social license to hunt

The social license to operate framework considers how society grants or withholds informal permission for resource extractors to exploit publicly owned resources. We developed a modified model, which we refer to as the social license to hunt (SLH). In it we similarly consider hunters as operators, given that wildlife are legally considered public resources in North America and Europe. We applied the SLH model to examine the controversial hunting of large carnivores, which are frequently killed for trophies. Killing for trophies is widespread, but undertaken by a minority of hunters, and can pose threats to the SLH for trophy-seeking carnivore hunters and potentially beyond. Societal opposition to large carnivore hunting relates not only to conservation concerns but also to misalignment between killing for trophies and dominant public values and attitudes concerning the treatment of animals. We summarized cases related to the killing of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), wolves (Canis lupus), and other large carnivores in Canada, the United States, and Europe to illustrate how opposition to large carnivore hunting, now expressed primarily on social media, can exert rapid and significant pressure on policy makers and politicians. Evidence of the potential for transformative change to wildlife management and conservation includes proposed and realized changes to legislation, business practice, and wildlife policy, including the banning of some large carnivore hunts. Given that policy is ultimately shaped by societal values and attitudes, research gaps include developing increased insight into public support of various hunting policies beyond that derived from monitoring of social media and public polling. Informed by increased evidence, the SLH model can provide a conceptual foundation for predicting the likelihood of transient versus enduring changes to wildlife conservation policy and practice for a wide variety of taxa and contexts.     

Ethics and governance for internet-based conservation science research

Internet-based research is increasingly important for conservation science and has wide-ranging applications and contexts, including culturomics, illegal wildlife trade, and citizen science. However, online research methods pose a range of ethical and legal challenges. Online data may be protected by copyright, database rights, or contract law. Privacy rights may also restrict the use and access of data, as well as ethical requirements from institutions. Online data have real-world meaning, and the ethical treatment of individuals and communities must not be marginalized when conducting internet-based research. As ethics frameworks originally developed for biomedical applications are inadequate for these methods, we propose that research activities involving the analysis of preexisting online data be treated analogous to offline social science methods, in particular, nondeceptive covert observation. By treating internet users and their data with respect and due consideration, conservationists can uphold the public trust needed to effectively address real-world issues.     

Temporal, spatial, and between-host comparisons of patterns of parasitism in lake zooplankton

In nature, multiple parasite species infect multiple host species and are influenced by processes operating across different spatial and temporal scales. Data sets incorporating these complexities offer exciting opportunities to examine factors that shape epidemics. We present a method using generalized linear mixed models in a multilevel modeling framework to analyze patterns of variances and correlations in binomially distributed prevalence data. We then apply it to a multi-lake, multiyear data set involving two Daphnia host species and nine microparasite species. We found that the largest source of variation in parasite prevalence was the species identities of host-parasite pairs, indicating strong host-parasite specificity. Within host-parasite combinations, spatial variation (among lakes) exceeded interannual variation. This suggests that factors promoting differences among lakes (e.g., habitat characteristics and species interactions) better explain variation in peak infection prevalence in our data set than factors driving differences among years (e.g., climate). Prevalences of parasites in D. dentifera were more positively correlated than those for D. pulicaria, suggesting that similar factors influenced epidemic size among parasites in D. dentifera. Overall, this study demonstrates a method for parsing patterns of variation and covariation in infection prevalence data, providing greater insight into the relative importance of different underlying drivers of parasitism.     

A GIS-based protocol for the collection and use of local knowledge in fisheries management planning

Despite a heavy reliance on scientific knowledge as the primary source of information in resource management, many resources are in decline, particularly in fisheries. To try and combat this trend, researchers have drawn upon the knowledge of local resource users as an important supplement to scientific knowledge in designing and implementing management strategies. The integration of local knowledge with scientific knowledge for marine species management, however, is problematic stemming primarily from conflicting data types. This paper considers the use of spatial information technology as a medium to integrate and visualise spatial distributions of both quantitative scientific data and qualitative local knowledge for the purposes of producing valid and locally relevant fisheries management plans. In this context, the paper presents a detailed protocol for the collection and subsequent use of local knowledge in fisheries management planning using geographic information systems (GIS). Particular attention is paid to the use of local knowledge in resource management, accuracy issues associated with the incorporation of qualitative data into a quantitative environment, base map selection and construction, and map bias or errors associated with the accuracy of recording harvest locations on paper map sheets, given the complications of map scale.     

Progress Toward Delisting a Great Lakes Area of Concern: The Role of Integrated Research and Monitoring in the Hamilton Harbour Remedial Action Plan

The goal of restoring environmental health and qualities to Hamilton Harbour Great Lakes Area of Concern, an embayment at the western end of Lake Ontario, is considered to be achievable by the year 2015. Restoring Hamilton Harbour is a dynamic process that relies heavily on research and monitoring to direct remediation efforts. Three principle means of coordinating this research and monitoring include: research and monitoring workshops; a monitoring catalogue outlining both government and nongovernment initiatives; and an annual report written by a local community group. These tools increase the effectiveness of remedial actions by: (i) improving stakeholders' ability to track trends; (ii) allowing program decision-makers to utilize adaptive management techniques to continuously modify programs based on new results; (iii) integrating interdisciplinary fields, and (iv) increasing accountability. This paper describes in detail these tools used for coordinating research and monitoring in implementing the Remedial Action Plan of the Hamilton Harbour Great Lakes Area of Concern, along with lessons learned to assist other implementers who are considering similar programs.     

Data Sharing – a Case of Shared Databases and Community Use of On-Line GIS Support Systems

Data management is becoming increasingly simple and complex at the same time. The challenge is to effectively use the increasing number of tools available to manage increasing amounts of environmental information for purposes of data capture, analysis, display, sharing and storage. Government is no longer the main collector and provider of data. Community groups possess vast amounts of data collected through daily work of monitoring the environment in their local community. The chief concerns are data access, sharing, integrity and comparability. The capacity of groups to sustain data management is the key to making the sharing possible. The Southeast Environmental Association has been working with Environment Canada to develop a community, on-line database that will be linked to other geo-spatial data sets to allow instant access to geo-referenced data.     

An ultra-clean firn core from the Devon Island Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada, retrieved using a titanium drill specially designed for trace element studies

An electromechanical drill with titanium barrels was used to recover a 63.7 m long firn core from Devon Island Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada, representing 155 years of precipitation. The core was processed and analysed at the Geological Survey of Canada by following strict clean procedures for measurements of Pb and Cd at concentrations at or below the pg g(-1) level. This paper describes the effectiveness of the titanium drill with respect to contamination during ice core retrieval and evaluates sample-processing procedures in laboratories. The results demonstrate that: (1) ice cores retrieved with this titanium drill are of excellent quality with metal contamination one to four orders of magnitude less than those retrieved with conventional drills; (2) the core cleaning and sampling protocols used were effective, contamination-free, and adequate for analysis of the metals (Pb and Cd) at low pg g(-1) levels; and (3) results from 489 firn core samples analysed in this study are comparable with published data from other sites in the Arctic, Greenland and the Antarctic.