Air pollution and diseases of the respiratory tracts in pre-school children: A transfer function model

The purpose of the present statistical analysis was the assessment of the relation between time series of environmental factors and of frequencies of diseases of the respiratory system in pre-school children. During about one year, daily measurements of air pollutants and climatic variables were taken. During the same period of time two series of medical data were collected: (i) The daily relative number of pre-school children, exhibiting diseases of the respiratory tracts who either came to the outpatients' clinic of the children's hospital or were reported by paediatricians in Basle (ENTRIES). (ii) The daily relative frequency of symptoms of the respiratory tracts observed in a group of randomly selected pre-school children (SYMPTOMS).By means of transfer function models the relation between the two target variables and the explaining variables was analysed. Several practical problems did arise: Choice of the appropriate transformation of the different series, interpretation of the crosscorrelation function using different methods of prewhitening, time splitting and nonstationarity of the crosscorrelation structure. In particular, it was found that after prewhitening the crosscorrelation function between the explanatory series SO₂ and the response series SYMPTOMS changes with time. While during the winter period an instantaneous relation between these two series (and to a lesser extent between NO₂ and SYMPTOMS) was identified, no such relation was found for the other seasons.     

A new RFLP marker,SP282, at the btk locus for genetic analysis in X-linked agammaglobulinaemia families

X-linked agammaglobulinaemia is an inherited recessive disease in which the primary defect lies in the failure of pre-B cells to develop into mature circulating B cells, due to a defective B-cell cytoplasmic tyrosine kinase (btk). For this study we introduced a new RFLP marker, SP282, which is tightly linked to the XLA locus. In conjunction with the marker DXS178, SP282 was used to identify a carrier female and predict her male offspring to be normal. Subsequently the fetus was shown to have a normal number of circulating B cells, and at 2·5 years of age, the non-affected phenotype of the child was confirmed.     

Power analysis as a reflexive scientific tool for interpretation and implementation of the precautionary principle in the European Union

The diversity of interpretation, the subsequent lack of implementation, and the enforcement of the precautionary principle have been important issues in the European environmental discourse for the past five years. The European Commission published a communication on the Commission's interpretation of the precautionary principle on February 2nd, 2000. However, the distinction between precaution and prevention is absent in the EU Commission's interpretation, resulting in the communication's lacking relevance for the precautionary principle. The important consequence of the precautionary concept in policy and decision-making is that it should not be based on an assumed certainty of the certainty of environmental knowledge--but rather on a certainty of the uncertainty of environmental knowledge. In other words, the regulation should, to a greater extent, be based on the management of uncertainty, and risk assessments should explicitly present and discuss related uncertainty and lack of knowledge. The management of uncertainty should be based on setting the acceptable level of risk of accepting a failure to reject the null hypothesis of no adverse effects (beta). This is done by setting the required power (1-beta) according to a socioeconomic cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, the acceptable ecological effect size (A) could also be set a priori which would have implications for the power of a study. Reversal of the burden of proof could be considered in order to resolve possible legal implications for the risk managers.     

Microbial in situ degradation of aromatic hydrocarbons in a contaminated aquifer monitored by carbon isotope fractionation

We present an approach for characterizing in situ microbial degradation using the 13C/12C isotope fractionation of contaminants as an indicator of biodegradation. The 13C/12C isotope fractionation of aromatic hydrocarbons was studied in anoxic laboratory soil percolation columns with toluene or o-xylene as the sole carbon and electron source, and sulfate as electron acceptor. After approximately 2 months' of incubation, the soil microbial community degraded 32 mg toluene l(-1) and 44 mg o-xylene l(-1) to less than 0.05 mg l(-1), generating a stable concentration gradient in the column. The 13C/12C isotope ratio in the residual non-degraded fraction of toluene and o-xylene increased significantly, corresponding to isotope fractionation factors (alphaC) of 1.0015 and 1.0011, respectively. When the extent of biodegradation in the soil column was calculated based on the measured isotope ratios (R(t)) and an isotope fractionation factor (alphaC=1.0017) obtained from a sulfate-reducing batch culture the theoretical residual substrate concentrations (C(t)) matched the measured toluene concentrations in the column. This indicated that a calculation of biodegradation based on isotope fractionation could work in systems like soil columns. In a field study, a polluted, anoxic aquifer was analyzed for BTEX and PAH contaminants. These compounds were found to exhibit a significant concentration gradient along an 800-m groundwater flow path downstream of the source of contamination. A distinct increase in the carbon isotope ratio (delta13C) was observed for the residual non-degraded toluene (7.2 per thousand ), o-xylene (8.1 per thousand ) and naphthalene fractions (1.2 per thousand ). Based on the isotope values and the laboratory-derived isotope fractionation factors for toluene and o-xylene, the extent to which the residual substrate fraction in the monitoring wells had been degraded by microorganisms was calculated. The results revealed significant biodegradation along the groundwater flow path. In the wells at the end of the plume, the bioavailable toluene and o-xylene fractions had been almost completely reduced by in situ microbial degradation. Although indane and indene showed decreasing concentrations downstream of the groundwater flow path, suggesting microbial degradation, their carbon isotope ratios remained constant. As the physical properties of these compounds are similar to those of BTEX compounds, the constant isotope values of indane and indene indicated that microbial degradation did not lead to isotope fractionation of all aromatic hydrocarbons. In addition, physical interaction with the aquifer material during the groundwater passage did not significantly alter the carbon isotope composition of aromatic hydrocarbons.