A COMPARISON OF DELTA CHANGE AND DOWNSCALED GCM SCENARIOS FOR THREE MOUNTAINOUS BASINS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.     

Spatiotemporal Variability of Modeled Watershed Scale Surface‐Depression Storage and Runoff for the Conterminous United States

This study explores the viability of using simulated monthly runoff as a proxy for landscape‐scale surface‐depression storage processes simulated by the United States Geological Survey’s National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructure across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two different temporal resolution model codes (daily and monthly) were run in the NHM with the same spatial discretization. Simulated values of daily surface‐depression storage (treated as a decimal fraction of maximum volume) as computed by the daily Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System (NHM‐PRMS) and normalized runoff (0 to 1) as computed by the Monthly Water Balance Model (NHM‐MWBM) were aggregated to monthly and annual values for each hydrologic response unit (HRU) in the CONUS geospatial fabric (HRU; n = 109,951) and analyzed using Spearman’s rank correlation test. Correlations between simulated runoff and surface‐depression storage aggregated to monthly and annual values were compared to identify where which time scale had relatively higher correlation values across the CONUS. Results show Spearman’s rank values >0.75 (highly correlated) for the monthly time scale in 28,279 HRUs (53.35%) compared to the annual time scale in 41,655 HRUs (78.58%). The geographic distribution of HRUs with highly correlated monthly values show areas where surface‐depression storage features are known to be common (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region, Florida).     

Challenges to liberalism: The case of Australian energy policy

This paper considers liberal and nationalist economic policy approaches to the ownership and development of Australian energy resources (oil, gas, coal and uranium). In the two decades prior to 1983, Australia pursued economic policies in relation to its energy resources which could broadly be described as ‘nationalist’. Governments of the day intervened in development decisions in an effort to enhance the ‘national interest’. From 1983, along with the deregulation of the Australian economy as a whole, policy relating to energy resources was liberalised. Development of energy reserves henceforth occurred according to the dictates of the market. This paper argues that recent Australian energy policy initiatives reflect an increase in nationalist influences and a retreat from the liberalisation agenda that dominated energy policy making in the 1980s and 1990s. Three examples are discussed where policy has been influenced by a nationalist framework: (1) the domestic gas reservation policy in Western Australia; (2) Australian government efforts to promote a ‘value adding’ nuclear processing industry and (3) Australian Labor Party policy giving preferential financial incentives for gas to liquids projects. The re-emergence of nationalism in Australia is occurring either because policy makers now favour it as a path to energy security or in some cases because they believe that appeals to nationalism will generate political support.     

Seaweed sex pheromones and their degradation products frequently suppress amphipod feeding but rarely suppress sea urchin feeding

Summary. A diverse group of brown seaweeds produce bouquets of C₁₁ metabolites, some of which act as pheromones that cue gamete release or attract sperm to eggs following release. We demonstrate that these C₁₁ metabolites and their degradation products also frequently and strongly deter feeding by the herbivorous amphipod Ampithoe longimana, but rarely by the herbivorous sea urchin Arbacia punctulata. Across the range of concentrations tested, seven of twelve C₁₁ metabolites or mixtures that we tested deterred feeding by the amphipod, but only two of eleven deterred the sea urchin. For those compounds where we could rigorously contrast the magnitude of deterrence against the amphipod with the magnitude of deterrence against the urchin, the amphipod was deterred significantly more than the urchin by five of six metabolites. Thus, C₁₁ compounds were more frequently and more strongly deterrent to the amphipod than to the sea urchin. These findings for C₁₁ metabolites conflict with previous investigations, where other classes of seaweed chemical defenses have been shown to deter feeding by large mobile herbivores like urchins and fishes but to be relatively ineffective against mesograzers, especially the species of amphipod that we used here. Our results suggest that C₁₁ metabolites are unusual among the known seaweed chemical defenses in that they are especially effective against mesograzers, which often consume seaweed spores, zygotes, and juveniles. The high concentrations of C₁₁ metabolites in brown algal eggs could allow these defenses to be especially important in defending gametes, zygotes, or young sporelings from herbivorous mesograzers. Received 26 February 1998; accepted 9 April 1998.     

Lignoid chemical defenses in the freshwater macrophyte Saururus cernuus

Summary. Chemical defense against herbivores has rarely been investigated for freshwater plants, possibly due to the common misconception that herbivory on aquatic macrophytes is low and would not select for chemical defenses. In previous work, the freshwater angiosperm Saururus cernuus was shown to be a low preference food for omnivorous crayfish despite its high nutrient value and relatively soft texture. We used feeding by the crayfish Procambarus clarkii to guide fractionation of the deterrent lipid-soluble extract of this plant, leading to the identification of seven deterrent lignoid metabolites, (–)-licarin A, (+)-saucernetin, (–)-dihydroguaiaretic acid, (–)-sauriols A and B, (–)-saucerneol, and (–)-saucerneol methyl ether. Lignans have been implicated in terrestrial plant chemical defenses as insect growth inhibitors, insect toxins, nematocides, antibacterial, and antifungal agents. However, these activities have rarely been demonstrated using ecologically relevant methodologies in terrestrial systems, and never before in freshwater systems. The widespread nature of lignans amongst very distantly related plants, along with their rich diversity of molecular structure, suggests that they could play a large role in mediating plant-herbivore interactions. In addition to the lignoid compounds we identified, there were other compounds present in low concentration or unstable compounds that were deterrent, that did not appear to be lignans, but that we were unable to identify. This plant thus appears to be defended by a complex mixture of natural products. Received 6 June 2000; revised 23 August 2000; accepted 2 September 2000     

Histopathological changes in zebrafish embryos exposed to DLPCBs extract from Zhanjiang coastal sediment

Dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (DLPCBs) are ubiquitous persistent pollutants that cause adverse effects in many environmental organisms. DLPCBs in marine sediments can be absorbed by benthic organisms, bioaccumulate, and biomagnify through the food chain and threaten animal and human health. There are no reports of DLPCBs concentrations in the Zhanjiang Gulf seabed. This study was designed to investigate the concentration of DLPCBs in the Zhanjiang coastal sediment and histopathological changes in zebrafish (Diano rerio) embryos exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of DLPCBs. Of the five sites selected, two sites TS and JSW contained DLPCBs at concentrations of 0.08 and 22.54 ng/g dry sediment, respectively. Two groups of zebrafish embryos were used. One group was exposed to 3.75, 7.5, 15, 30, and 60 mg/ml of DLPCBs extracted from the sediments sampled from the TS site and the second group to 4.375, 8.75, 17.5, 35, and 70 mg/ml of DLPCBs from JSW site from 0.75 h post-fertilization (hpf) to 96 hpf. The zebrafish exposed to 60 and 70 mg/ml of DLPCBs at 96 hpf displayed gross histopathological changes with cardiac lesions including pericardial edema being the most deleterious. Other changes observed were hydropic degeneration of gill filaments and hepatocytes, loss of intestinal folds, and uninflated swim bladder. It appears that only a few sites of the Zhanjiang gulf are contaminated with DLPCBs. This is the first report of histopathological changes in the gills, hepatocytes, intestines, heart, and the swim bladder in zebrafish embryos exposed to DLPCBs from a coastal sediment. Further studies with sampling at different stages of development are required to identify which organ/tissue is most sensitive to DLPCBs.     

用决策支持手段、学习机会和信息技术帮助贯彻清洁生产

本文对能够帮助从国家到企业各级清洁生产系统落实的决策支持手段,提出了基本看法.在根据每个人不同的能力、潜力和发展变化提供相应的学习内容和机会的时候,如何促使和帮助个人参加清洁生产教育并超过计划,正是本文要应对的挑战.电子学习系统能够极大限度地利用现有信息.     

Food aid and relief-development strategies*

This paper begins by setting out the main arguments on which a proposal for "relief-development strategies" rest. The second part of the paper is concerned with a discussion of the way the objectives of a "relief-development strategy" might be achieved and the roles emergency food aid might have. In the third part of the paper, a number of strategic issues are discussed. A stylized account is presented of how a broad "relief development strategy" might be mounted. The last part of the paper draws together the discussion by considering how emergency projects should be assessed. If the principles on which this paper are based are accepted, then the evaluation of emergency projects should extend well beyond convention.