Assessing model structure uncertainty through an analysis of system feedback and Bayesian networks.

Ecological predictions and management strategies are sensitive to variability in model parameters as well as uncertainty in model structure. Systematic analysis of the effect of alternative model structures, however, is often beyond the resources typically available to ecologists, ecological risk practitioners, and natural resource managers. Many of these practitioners are also using Bayesian belief networks based on expert opinion to fill gaps in empirical information. The practical application of this approach can be limited by the need to populate large conditional probability tables and the complexity associated with ecological feedback cycles. In this paper, we describe a modeling approach that helps solve these problems by embedding a qualitative analysis of sign directed graphs into the probabilistic framework of a Bayesian belief network. Our approach incorporates the effects of feedback on the model's response to a sustained change in one or more of its parameters, provides an efficient means to explore the effect of alternative model structures, mitigates the cognitive bias in expert opinion, and is amenable to stakeholder input. We demonstrate our approach by examining two published case studies: a host-parasitoid community centered on a nonnative, agricultural pest of citrus cultivars and the response of an experimental lake mesocosm to nutrient input. Observations drawn from these case studies are used to diagnose alternative model structures and to predict the system's response following management intervention.     

Sperm precedence, mating interval, and a novel mechanism of paternity bias in a beetle (Tenebrio molitor L.)

When females mate with more than one male, the ensuing sperm competition leads to the evolution of male mechanisms that skew paternity. Males of the yellow mealworm beetle (Tenebrio molitor) transfer a spermatophore to females during copulation, but sperm release and storage occur later. We investigated how the interval between two matings with different males affects sperm precedence by varying the interval between the copulations so that the second mating was either: (1) before sperm release from the first spermatophore (<5 min); (2) after sperm release but before spermatophore ejection (15–20 min); (3) after spermatophore ejection but before sperm storage (4 h), or (4) after complete sperm storage (24 h). We collected offspring over a period of 2 weeks and determined paternity by protein electrophoresis. There was second-male sperm precedence in all treatments, but when the interval was <5 min, the second male usually (86% of cases) had complete sperm precedence (i.e., P ₂=1). Investigations into the mechanism of second-male sperm precedence during <5-min mating intervals indicate that sperm release from the first spermatophore is inhibited, a phenomenon which has not been previously documented. Received: 31 January 2000 / Revised: 9 June 2000 / Accepted: 26 August 2000     

PCBs in air, soil and milk in industrialized and urban areas of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Information regarding polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in environmental media in Africa is limited. This paper presents results of a monitoring program conducted in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa designed to characterize levels, trends and sources of airborne PCBs. Particulate and vapor samples were sampled over the 2004-2005 period at three sites. The total PCB concentration averaged 128 ± 47 pg m⁻³, and levels were highest in winter. Tri- through hexa-congeners predominated, and the vapor fraction was predominant. Several tetra- through hexa-chlorinated congeners had levels comparable to those at urban sites in the northern hemisphere, but hepta- through deca-congeners resembled levels at background sites. PCB source areas, deduced using spatial and temporal patterns, compositional information and trajectory analyses, likely included local, regional and global sources. Soils at three rural sites showed high PCB concentrations, and milk from a local dairy showed PCB concentrations comparable to USA levels in year 2000.     

A longitudinal study of the links between Local Air Quality Management and Local Transport Planning policy processes in England

The second round of the Local Transport Plan (LTP2) process in England presents unique challenges and opportunities for integrating Local Air Quality Management (LAQM) within current transport planning policy. Using content analysis of LTP2 documents from nine English authorities, and results from a questionnaire survey of local government officers undertaken in late 2007, this paper charts the changes in the integration of air quality management within the transport planning process since 1997. While substantial improvements in policy integration were observed within the selected case studies, the paper demonstrates that such improvements are often constrained by institutional complexities that create implementation gaps between national objectives and local decision-making outcomes.     

Philopatry, male presence and grooming reciprocation among female primates: a comparative perspective

Competition for food and a safe location in a group are considered to be the main determinants of variation in social relationships among female primates. The effect of the presence of males is usually overlooked, however. Here we put forward two hypotheses connecting the (relative) number of males in a group, a statistic measuring the strength of positive relationships among females (the degree of reciprocity of grooming) and female residence. Under the first hypothesis, we assumed that philopatric females suffer especially from competition for males. Because females of these species are restrained to their native group and thus do not move to groups where better conditions (i.e. more males) prevail, a higher socionomic sex ratio would imply reduced competition and this should be reflected in better relationships among females (i.e. in a higher degree of reciprocation). The second hypothesis is based on the contention of Wrangham (1987) that groups with more males are better able to defend large food sources: in these groups female relationships would suffer less from within-group competition for food. We therefore also expected a positive correlation between the absolute number of males and grooming reciprocation. To test the hypotheses, matrices of grooming interactions were collected by going through the primatological literature. For ten female-resident and four female-transfer primate species, the degree of grooming reciprocation was quantified using a specially adapted matrix statistic. The results favoured the first (competition for males) hypothesis. The degree of grooming reciprocation among females was positively correlated with socionomic sex ratio, but neither with group size nor with the absolute number of males. Correlations between the degree of reciprocity and sex ratio were confirmed at three levels: within the same group at different points in time, between groups of the same species, and between species. In addition, the degree of reciprocation increased with sex ratio more strongly in typical single/variable male than in multi-male species. This we interpreted as a direct consequence of the lower social availability of males for females in multi-male groups than single-male groups. In turn, this effect may be due to males competing for females in multi-male groups. Received: 28 May 1997 / Accepted after revision: 9 November 1997     

A review of contamination of surface-, ground-, and drinking water in Sweden by perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs)

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are found in aquatic systems, flora, and fauna worldwide. These potentially harmful compounds are also frequently detected in Sweden and have already resulted in severe problems for public drinking water supply, i.e., some wells had to be closed due to high PFAS concentrations both in raw water and produced drinking water. Knowledge on PFAS occurrence in Sweden is still quite low, although monitoring is currently ongoing. This work describes potential sources for PFASs to enter the drinking water supply in Sweden and compares different occurrences of PFASs in raw and drinking water in the country. Moreover, the monitoring history, the legal situation, and remediation actions taken are presented. Finally, future challenges and the way forward in Sweden are discussed.     

Control of Emissions Through Efficient Use of Atmospheric Dispersion—a Forecast System

Fuel use limitations present a dilemma to both suppliers and users in that fuel with high sulfur content may be prohibited, even though during much of the year meteorological conditions may provide sufficent dispersion to maintain acceptable air quality levels. To make most efficient use of available fuels, a system of varying emissions according to atmospheric parameters is suggested. Objective forecasts of meteorological conditions in terms of dispersion effects can be used to monitor fuel use according to the atmosphere’s ability to disperse pollutants successfully.     

Evaluation of respiration in compost landfill biocovers intended for methane oxidation

A low-cost alternative approach to reduce landfill gas (LFG) emissions is to integrate compost into the landfill cover design in order to establish a biocover that is optimized for biological oxidation of methane (CH₄). A laboratory and field investigation was performed to quantify respiration in an experimental compost biocover in terms of oxygen (O₂) consumption and carbon dioxide (CO₂) production and emission rates. O₂ consumption and CO₂ production rates were measured in batch and column experiments containing compost sampled from a landfill biowindow at Fakse landfill in Denmark. Column gas concentration profiles were compared to field measurements. Column studies simulating compost respiration in the biowindow showed average CO₂ production and O₂ consumption rates of 107 ± 14 g m⁻² d⁻¹ and 63 ± 12 g m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively. Gas profiles from the columns showed elevated CO₂ concentrations throughout the compost layer, and CO₂ concentrations exceeded 20% at a depth of 40 cm below the surface of the biowindow. Overall, the results showed that respiration of compost material placed in biowindows might generate significant CO₂ emissions. In landfill compost covers, methanotrophs carrying out CH₄ oxidation will compete for O₂ with other aerobic microorganisms. If the compost is not mature, a significant portion of the O₂ diffusing into the compost layer will be consumed by non-methanotrophs, thereby limiting CH₄ oxidation. The results of this study however also suggest that the consumption of O₂ in the compost due to aerobic respiration might increase over time as a result of the accumulation of biomass in the compost after prolonged exposure to CH₄.     

Elevated radioxenon detected remotely following the Fukushima nuclear accident

We report on the first measurements of short-lived gaseous fission products detected outside of Japan following the Fukushima nuclear releases, which occurred after a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. The measurements were conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), (46°16′47″N, 119°16′53″W) located more than 7000 km from the emission point in Fukushima Japan (37°25′17″N, 141°1′57″E). First detections of ¹³³Xe were made starting early March 16, only four days following the earthquake. Maximum concentrations of ¹³³Xe were in excess of 40 Bq/m³, which is more than ×40,000 the average concentration of this isotope is this part of the United States.     

Disaster waste management: a review article

Depending on their nature and severity, disasters can create large volumes of debris and waste. The waste can overwhelm existing solid waste management facilities and impact on other emergency response and recovery activities. If poorly managed, the waste can have significant environmental and public health impacts and can affect the overall recovery process.This paper presents a system overview of disaster waste management based on existing literature. The main literature available to date comprises disaster waste management plans or guidelines and isolated case studies. There is ample discussion on technical management options such as temporary storage sites, recycling, disposal, etc.; however, there is little or no guidance on how these various management options are selected post-disaster. The literature does not specifically address the impact or appropriateness of existing legislation, organisational structures and funding mechanisms on disaster waste management programmes, nor does it satisfactorily cover the social impact of disaster waste management programmes.It is envisaged that the discussion presented in this paper, and the literature gaps identified, will form a basis for future comprehensive and cohesive research on disaster waste management. In turn, research will lead to better preparedness and response to disaster waste management problems.