Estimating down deadwood from FIA forest inventory variables in Maine

Down deadwood (DDW) is a carbon component important in the function and structure of forest ecosystems, but estimating DDW is problematic because these data are not widely available in forest inventory databases. However, DDW data were collected on USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots during Maine's 1995 inventory. This study examines ways to predict DDW biomass from other FIA variables so that DDW could be estimated without tedious measurement. Our results include a regression model that predicts DDW as a function of stand size class, basal area of dead and cut trees, and dummy variables for forest type and forest industry ownership. We also found DDW similar to FIA's standing-tree mortality at a statewide scale.     

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.     

Local and regional genetic connectivity in a Caribbean coral reef fish

Coupled bio-physical models of larval dispersal predict that the Costa Rica–Panama (CR–PAN) reefs should constitute a demographically isolated region in the western Caribbean. We tested the hypothesis that CR–PAN coral reef fish populations would be isolated from Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS) populations. To test that, we assessed population genetic structure in bicolor damselfish (Stegastes partitus) from both regions. Adult fish were genotyped from five reefs in CR–PAN and from four reefs along the MBRS at 12 microsatellite loci. Between-region F _ST (F _ST = 0.0030, P < 0.005) and exact test (x ² = 74.34, df = 18, P < 0.0001) results indicated that there is weak but significant genetic differentiation between regions, suggesting some restriction in connectivity along the Central American coastline, as predicted by bio-oceanographic models. Additionally, there is among-site genetic structure in the CR–PAN region, relative to the MBRS and between regions, suggesting higher self-recruitment within CR–PAN. This finding may be explained by differences in habitat characteristics.     

Modeling scale up of anthropogenic impacts from individual pollinator behavior to pollination systems

Understanding how anthropogenic disturbances affect plant–pollinator systems has important implications for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Previous laboratory studies show that pesticides and pathogens, which have been implicated in the rapid global decline of pollinators over recent years, can impair behavioral processes needed for pollinators to adaptively exploit floral resources and effectively transfer pollen among plants. However, the potential for these sublethal stressor effects on pollinator–plant interactions at the individual level to scale up into changes to the dynamics of wild plant and pollinator populations at the system level remains unclear. We developed an empirically parameterized agent-based model of a bumblebee pollination system called SimBee to test for effects of stressor-induced decreases in the memory capacity and information processing speed of individual foragers on bee abundance (scenario 1), plant diversity (scenario 2), and bee–plant system stability (scenario 3) over 20 virtual seasons. Modeling of a simple pollination network of a bumblebee and four co-flowering bee-pollinated plant species indicated that bee decline and plant species extinction events could occur when only 25% of the forager population showed cognitive impairment. Higher percentages of impairment caused 50% bee loss in just five virtual seasons and system-wide extinction events in less than 20 virtual seasons under some conditions. Plant species extinctions occurred regardless of bee population size, indicating that stressor-induced changes to pollinator behavior alone could drive species loss from plant communities. These findings indicate that sublethal stressor effects on pollinator behavioral mechanisms, although seemingly insignificant at the level of individuals, have the cumulative potential in principle to degrade plant–pollinator species interactions at the system level. Our work highlights the importance of an agent-based modeling approach for the identification and mitigation of anthropogenic impacts on plant–pollinator systems.     

Carbon Stocks and Projections on Public Forestlands in the United States, 1952–2040

Approximately 37% of forestlands in the conterminous United States are publicly owned; they represent a substantial area of potential carbon sequestration in US forests and in forest products. However, large areas of public forestlands traditionally have been less intensively inventoried than privately owned forests. Thus, less information is available about their role as carbon sinks. We present estimates of carbon budgets on public forestlands of the 48 conterminous states, along with a discussion of the assumptions necessary to make such estimates. The forest carbon budget simulation model, FORCARB2, makes estimates for US forests primarily based on inventory data. We discuss methods to develop consistent carbon budget estimates from inventory data at varying levels of detail. Total carbon stored on public forestlands in the conterminous US increased from 16.3 Gt in 1953 to the present total of 19.5 Gt, while area increased from 87.1 million hactares to 92.1 million hactares. At the same time the proportion of carbon on public forestlands relative to all forests increased from 35% to 37%. Projections for the next 40 years depend on scenarios of management influences on growth and harvest.This article was written and prepared by US Government employees on official time, and it is therefore in the public domain and not subject to copyright.     

Identifying Influences on Model Uncertainty: An Application Using a Forest Carbon Budget Model

Uncertainty is an important consideration for both developers and users of environmental simulation models. Establishing quantitative estimates of uncertainty for deterministic models can be difficult when the underlying bases for such information are scarce. We demonstrate an application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis that provides for refinements in quantifying input uncertainty even with little information. Uncertainties in forest carbon budget projections were examined with Monte Carlo analyses of the model FORCARB. We identified model sensitivity to range, shape, and covariability among model probability density functions, even under conditions of limited initial information. Distributional forms of probabilities were not as important as covariability or ranges of values. Covariability among FORCARB model parameters emerged as a very influential component of uncertainty, especially for estimates of average annual carbon flux.     

Toxicity of the mixture of selected antineoplastic drugs against aquatic primary producers

The residues of antineoplastic drugs are considered as new and emerging pollutants in aquatic environments. Recent experiments showed relatively high toxicity of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), imatinib mesylate (IM), etoposide (ET) and cisplatin (CP) that are currently among most widely used antineoplastic drugs, against phytoplankton species. In this study, we investigated the toxic potential of the mixture of 5-FU?+?IM?+?ET against green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata and cyanobacterium Synechococcus leopoliensis, and the stability and sorption of these drugs to algal cells. Toxic potential of the mixture was predicted by the concepts of ‘concentration addition’ and ‘independent action’ and compared to the experimentally determined toxicity. In both test species, the measured toxicity of the mixture was at effects concentrations EC₁₀–EC₅₀ higher than the predicted, whereas at higher effect concentration (EC₉₀), it was lower. In general, P. subcapitata was more sensitive than S. leopoliensis. The stability studies of the tested drugs during the experiment showed that 5-FU, IM and CP are relatively stable, whereas in the cultures exposed to ET, two transformation products with the same mass as ET but different retention time were detected. The measurements of the cell-linked concentrations of the tested compounds after 72 h exposure indicated that except for CP (1.9 % of the initial concentration), these drugs are not adsorbed or absorbed by algal cells. The results of this study showed that in alga and cyanobacteria exposure to the mixture of 5-FU?+?ET?+?IM, in particular at low effect concentration range, caused additive or synergistic effect on growth inhibition, and they suggest that single compound toxicity data are not sufficient for the proper toxicity prediction for aquatic primary producers.     

Fate of citalopram during water treatment with O3, ClO2, UV and Fenton oxidation

In the present study we investigate the fate of citalopram (CIT) at neutral pH using advanced water treatment technologies that include O₃, ClO₂ oxidation, UV irradiation and Fenton oxidation. The ozonation resulted in 80% reduction after 30 min treatment. Oxidation with ClO₂ removed >90% CIT at a dosage of 0.1 mg L⁻¹. During UV irradiation 85% reduction was achieved after 5 min, while Fenton with addition of 14 mg L⁻¹ (Fe²⁺) resulted in 90% reduction of CIT. During these treatment experiments transformation products (TPs) were formed from CIT, where five compounds were identified by using high resolution and tandem mass spectrometry. Among these desmethyl-citalopram and citalopram N-oxide have been previously identified as human metabolites, while three are novel and published here for the first time. The three TPs are a hydroxylated dimethylamino-side chain derivative, a butyrolactone derivative and a defluorinated derivative of CIT.     

A complex investigation of the extent of pollution in sediments of the Sava River: part 2: persistent organic pollutants

Sediment pollution of the biggest Danube tributary, the Sava River, was investigated within the sixth framework European Union project “Sava River Basin: Sustainable Use, Management and Protection of Resources” (SARIB). The extent of pollution was estimated by determining the amount of inorganic and persistent organic pollutants in sediment samples at 20 selected sampling sites along the Sava River. For the purpose of clarity, the findings are presented and published separately (part I: selected elements and part II: persistent organic pollutants). This study presents an investigation into the presence of organic pollutants in the Sava River sediment. According to the Water Framework Directive, the following persistent organic pollutants were investigated: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), selected chlorinated pesticides and organotin compounds. The results reveal that PAHs were present in moderate concentrations (sum of 16 PAHs: up to 4,000 ng g^???1) and their concentrations increased downstream. Concen trations of PCB were low (sum of seven indicator PCBs: below 4 ng g^???1) and among the pesticides analyzed only p,p-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane was found in moderate concentrations at two sampling sites in Croatia (up to 3 ng g^???1) and hexachlorobenzene was found in a high concentration in the city of Belgrade (91 ng g^???1), although the use of these persistent pesticides has been banned for decades. Repeated sampling at the same location revealed point pollution near Belgrade. Among the organic pollutants surveyed, organotin compounds were not detected. Overall results reveal the presence of persistent organic pollutants in 20 of the Sava River sediments tested that is, in general, comparable or lower than the levels in the Danube River and other moderately polluted European rivers.