Simulating correlated count data

In this study we compare two techniques for simulating count-valued random n-vectors Y with specified mean and correlation structure. The first technique is to use a lognormal-Poisson hierarchy (L-P method). A vector of correlated normals Z is generated and transformed to a vector of lognormals X. Then, Y is generated as conditionally independent Poissons with means X _i . The L-P method is simple, fast, and familiar to many researchers. However, the method requires each Y _i to be overdispersed (i.e., σ² > μ), and only low correlations are possible with this method when the variables have small means. We develop a second technique to generate the elements of Y as overlapping sums (OS) of independent X _j ’s (OS method). For example, suppose X, X ₁, and X ₂ are independent. If Y ₁ = X + X ₁ and Y ₂ = X + X ₂, then Y ₁ and Y ₂ are correlated because they share the common component X. A generalized version of the OS method for simulating n-vectors of two-parameter count-valued distributions is presented. The OS method is shown to address some of the shortcomings of the L-P method. In particular, underdispersed random variables can be simulated, and high correlations are feasible even when the means are small. However, negative correlations cannot be simulated with the OS method, and when n > 3, the OS method is more complicated to implement than the L-P method.     

Effects of sludge-amendment on mineralization of pyrene and microorganisms in sludge and soil.

Hydrophobic contaminants sorb to sludge in wastewater treatment plants and enter the soil environment when the sludge is applied to agricultural fields. The mineralization of pyrene was examined in soil, in sludge mixed homogeneously into soil, and in sludge-soil systems containing a lump of sludge. Sludge-amendment enhanced the mineralization of pyrene in the soil compared to soil without sludge, and the most extensive mineralization was observed when the sludge was kept in a lump. The number of protozoa, heterotrophic bacteria and pyrene-mineralizing bacteria was much higher in the sludge compared to the soil. The amendment of sludge did not affect the number of protozoa and bacteria in the surrounding soil, which indicated that organic contaminants in the sludge had a little effect on the number of protozoa and bacteria in the surrounding soil.     

Estimation and simulation for geospatial porosity and permeability data

Reservoir simulation of \(\hbox {CO}_2\) sequestration, energy recovery, and environmental contamination scenarios must be accompanied by uncertainty quantification. Typically this is done by stochastically modeling porosity and permeability fields, simulating realizations based on the model, and then numerically simulating flow and transport. The challenge is to generate simulated porosity and permeability fields with characteristics as similar as possible to those known of the reservoir under study. In this paper we focus on the first two steps above in analyzing a large 3-dimensional array of geospatial porosity data and using the results to produce simulated data with characteristics mimicking those of the original porosity observations. The spatial covariance is empirically approximated from horizontal cross sections of the data via a kernel principle component analysis yielding dimension reduction. Simulations in three dimensions are produced by linking consecutive parallel cross sections via conditioning on a small subarray of the data. The conditional simulations effectively reproduce observed channeling, an important large scale feature of interest in the sub-surface relevant to transport of contaminates. The original porosity data is non-Gaussian and requires additional analysis and transformation to generate both porosity and permeability fields.     

Policy and Practice Certainty for Effective Uptake of Diffuse Pollution Practices in A Light-Touch Regulated Country

Environmental Management - Although the link between agriculture and diffuse water pollution has been understood for decades, there is still a need to implement effective measures to address this...     

Crystal structure of δ-isobutoxypentabromo-cyclododecanes, kinetics and selectivity of their isomerization during thermal treatment of flame-proofed polystyrenes

Hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) are persistent organic pollutants now ubiquitous in the environment. Technical HBCD mixtures and with it flame-proofed polystyrenes (FP-PS) also contain isobutoxypentabromocyclododecanes (iBPBCDs) as minor constituents, which are possibly released together with HBCDs. So far, eight diastereomeric pairs of enantiomers named as α-, β-, γ-, δ-, ?-, ξ-, η-, and θ-iBPBCDs with proportions of 10%, 5%, 2%, 21%, 11%, 11%, 12% and 28% were found in technical HBCD. Herein the crystal structure of racemic δ-iBPBCD, the second most prominent diastereomer, is presented and assigned to (1S)-1-isobutoxy-(2R,5R,6S,9S,10S)-2,5,6,9,10-pentabromocyclododecane and its enantiomer. During thermal treatment of FP-PS, e.g. the production of extruded polystyrenes (XPS), proportions of δ-iBPBCDs decrease and those of other stereoisomers increase. Evidence was found that δ-iBPBCDs isomerize stereo- and regioselectively to β-iBPBCDs. Based on structural and kinetic data, a transformation mechanism was proposed. Apparent first-order rate constants (k_iso) of 0.0019, 0.0050, and 0.012 min⁻¹ are found for the δ- to β-iBPBCD isomerization at 120, 130, and 140 °C, respectively, corresponding to half-lives of 360, 140, and 56 min. These transformations also occur during the production of XPS, which predominantly contain β-iBPBCDs, whereas δ-iBPBCDs dominate in materials experiencing lower thermal stress, e.g. expanded polystyrenes (EPS). The relative configurations of δ- and θ-iBPBCDs are TtCtCt, like the one of γ-HBCDs. γ-HBCDs are the kinetically and α-HBCDs with a TcCtCc configuration the thermodynamically favored products. In analogy, β-iBPBCDs are assumed to have a TcCtCc configuration like α-HBCDs because they are formed from δ-iBPBCDs under thermodynamic control. In conclusion, HBCD- and iBPBCD-patterns in flame-proofed polystyrenes vary substantially, reflecting the thermal stress these materials have experienced. When released to the environment, these patterns might further change, as observed for HBCDs.     

EFFECTS OF DAM IMPOUNDMENT ON THE FLOOD REGIME OF NATURAL FLOODPLAIN COMMUNITIES IN THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER1

ABSTRACT: Understanding the effects of dams on the inundation regime of natural floodplain communities is critical for effective decision making on dam management or dam removal. To test the implications of hydrologic alteration by dams for floodplain natural communities, we conducted a combined field and modeling study along two reaches in the Connecticut River Rapids Macrosite (CRRM), one of the last remaining flowing water sections of the Upper Connecticut River. We surveyed multiple channel cross sections at both locations and concurrently identified and surveyed the elevations of important natural communities, native species of concern, and nonnative invasive species. Using a hydrologic model, HEC‐RAS, we routed estimated pre‐and post‐impoundment discharges of different design recurrence intervals (two year through 100 year floods) through each reach to establish corresponding reductions in elevation and effective wetted perimeter following post‐dam discharge reductions. By comparing (1) the frequency and duration of flooding of these surfaces before and after impoundment and (2) the total area flooded at different recurrence intervals, our goal was to derive a spatially explicit assessment of hydrologic alteration, directly relevant to natural floodplain communities. Post‐impoundment hydrologic alteration profoundly affected the subsequent inundation regime, and this impact was particularly true of higher floodplain terraces. These riparian communities, which were flooded, on average, every 20 to 100 years pre‐impoundment, were predicted to flood at 100 ? 100 year intervals, essentially isolating them completely from riverine influence. At the pre‐dam five to ten year floodplain elevations, we observed smaller differences in predicted flood frequency but substantial differences in the total area flooded and in the average flood duration. For floodplain forests in the Upper Connecticut River, this alteration by impoundment suggests that even if other stresses facing these communities (human development, invasive exotics) were alleviated, this may not be sufficient to restore intact natural communities. More generally, our approach provides a way to combine site specific variables with long term gage records in assessing the restorative potential of dam removal.     

Knowledge co‐production and boundary work to promote implementation of conservation plans

Knowledge co‐production and boundary work offer planners a new frame for critically designing a social process that fosters collaborative implementation of resulting plans. Knowledge co‐production involves stakeholders from diverse knowledge systems working iteratively toward common vision and action. Boundary work is a means of creating permeable knowledge boundaries that satisfy the needs of multiple social groups while guarding the functional integrity of contributing knowledge systems. Resulting products are boundary objects of mutual interest that maintain coherence across all knowledge boundaries. We examined how knowledge co‐production and boundary work can bridge the gap between planning and implementation and promote cross‐sectoral cooperation. We applied these concepts to well‐established stages in regional conservation planning within a national scale conservation planning project aimed at identifying areas for conserving rivers and wetlands of South Africa and developing an institutional environment for promoting their conservation. Knowledge co‐production occurred iteratively over 4 years in interactive stake‐holder workshops that included co‐development of national freshwater conservation goals and spatial data on freshwater biodiversity and local conservation feasibility; translation of goals into quantitative inputs that were used in Marxan to select draft priority conservation areas; review of draft priority areas; and packaging of resulting map products into an atlas and implementation manual to promote application of the priority area maps in 37 different decision‐making contexts. Knowledge co‐production stimulated dialogue and negotiation and built capacity for multi‐scale implementation beyond the project. The resulting maps and information integrated diverse knowledge types of over 450 stakeholders and represented >1000 years of collective experience. The maps provided a consistent national source of information on priority conservation areas for rivers and wetlands and have been applied in 25 of the 37 use contexts since their launch just over 3 years ago. When framed as a knowledge co‐production process supported by boundary work, regional conservation plans can be developed into valuable boundary objects that offer a tangible tool for multi‐agency cooperation around conservation. Our work provides practical guidance for promoting uptake of conservation science and contributes to an evidence base on how conservation efforts can be improved.     

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation.     

Climate-induced reaction norms for life-history traits in pythons

Climate change modelers predict increasingly frequent "extreme events," so it is critical to quantify whether organismal responses (such as reproductive output) measured over the range of usual climatic conditions can predict responses under more extreme conditions. In a 20-year field study on water pythons (Liasis fuscus), we quantified the effects of climatically driven annual variation in food supply on demographic traits of female pythons (feeding rate, body size, body mass, and reproductive output). Reaction norms linking food supply to feeding rates and residual body mass were broadly linear, whereas norms linking food supply to female body size became curvilinear when a dramatic (flooding-induced) famine reduced the mean body size at sexual maturity. Thus, the reaction norms recorded over 16 years of mal" (albeit highly variable) climatic conditions gave little insight into the population's response to a more extreme nutritional crisis.