An introduction to decision science for conservation

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.     

Effects of Mowing and Prescribed Fire on Plant Community Structure and Function in Rare Coastal Sandplains,Nantucket Island,MA, USA

Coastal sandplains provide habitat for a suite of rare and endangered plant and wildlife species in the northeastern United States. These early successional plant communities were maintained by natural and anthropogenic disturbances including salt spray, fire, and livestock grazing, but over the last 150 years, a decrease in anthropogenic disturbance frequency and intensity has resulted in a shift towards woody shrub dominance at the expense of herbaceous taxa. This study quantified the effects of more than a decade of dormant season disturbance-based vegetation management (mowing and prescribed fire) on coastal sandplain plant community composition on Nantucket Island, Massachusetts, USA. We used time-series plant cover data from two similar sites to evaluate the effectiveness of disturbance management for restoring herbaceous species cover and reducing woody shrub dominance. Our results indicate that applying management outside of the peak of the growing season has not been effective in maintaining or increasing the cover of herbaceous species. While management activities resulted in significant (P < 0.01) increases in herbaceous species immediately after treatment, woody species recolonized and dominated treated sites within 3-years post treatment at the expense of graminoids and forbs. These results highlight the difficulties associated with directing ecological succession using disturbance-based management to maintain rare, herbaceous species in coastal sandplain systems that were once a prevalent landscape component under historically chronic anthropogenic disturbance. Further experimentation with growing season disturbance-based management and different combinations of management techniques could provide insights into management alternatives for maintaining herbaceous conservation targets in coastal sandplains.     

Building community resilience in a context of climate change: The role of social capital

Social capital is considered important for resilience across social levels, including communities, yet insights are scattered across disciplines. This meta-synthesis of 187 studies examines conceptual and empirical understandings of how social capital relates to resilience, identifying implications for community resilience and climate change practice. Different conceptualisations are highlighted, yet also limited focus on underlying dimensions of social capital and proactive types of resilience for engaging with the complex climate change challenge. Empirical insights show that structural and socio-cultural aspects of social capital, multiple other factors and formal actors are all important for shaping the role of social capital for guiding resilience outcomes. Thus, finding ways to work with these different elements is important. Greater attention on how and why outcomes emerge, interactions between factors, approaches of formal actors and different socio-cultural dimensions will advance understandings about how to nurture social capital for resilience in the context of climate change.     

Who Plans Whose Sustainability? Alternative Roles for Planners

The paper examines alternative roles for planners in planning for sustainable development. First, it outlines the particular context of the task focusing on operational questions, critical issues and sustainable development planning principles. It then explores roles for planners in this context distinguishing broadly among technician, politician and hybrid planners. It evaluates broadly each role's effectiveness and challenges, in particular decision making and political contexts. Finally, it discusses, first, the implications of these roles for planning education and identifies the main groups of skills planning schools should offer. Second, it analyses briefly the implications of these roles for planning practice in terms of the spatial/organizational level of planning, time horizon, functional planning areas, political/decision making system and planning's position in this system.     

Can a key boreal Calanus copepod species now complete its life-cycle in the Arctic? Evidence and implications for Arctic food-webs

The changing Arctic environment is affecting zooplankton that support its abundant wildlife. We examined how these changes are influencing a key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus, principally found in the North Atlantic but expatriated to the Arctic. Close to the ice-edge in the Fram Strait, we identified areas that, since the 1980s, are increasingly favourable to C. finmarchicus. Field-sampling revealed part of the population there to be capable of amassing enough reserves to overwinter. Early developmental stages were also present in early summer, suggesting successful local recruitment. This extension to suitable C. finmarchicus habitat is most likely facilitated by the long-term retreat of the ice-edge, allowing phytoplankton to bloom earlier and for longer and through higher temperatures increasing copepod developmental rates. The increased capacity for this species to complete its life-cycle and prosper in the Fram Strait can change community structure, with large consequences to regional food-webs.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01667-y.     

Scent-rubbing and status signalling by male mammals

Summary There is no consensus about the function of scent-rubbing, a widespread behaviour in which mammals rub their bodies vigorously in substances, many strong-smelling and some artificial, such as rotting meat, intestinal contents and engine oil. Here we suggest that scent-rubbing is involved in status advertisement and that, as in assessment using scent marks, the mechanism used by competitors to assess potential opponents may be scent-matching. In scent-matching a resource holder is assessed (identified) by comparing its odour with odours on or near the defended resource. In scent marking the odour originates from the resource holder (glandular secretion, urine and faeces); in scent-rubbing the odour originates in the environment.A prerequisite of unambiguous scent-matching is that the odour of scent-marks should be uniquely characteristic of one individual. This may be why marking substances are very complex chemically. Scent-rubbing often occurs with scent-marking and, rather than acting independently of scent-marking, the odours acquired may either (i) add to the complexity of the signal, thus reducing signal ambiguity, or (ii) increase the range of the signal by adding a strong smelling component.Subordinates could potentially cheat by rubbing in the same odours as the resource holder. Resource holders could prevent cheating (i) by checking other status cues and by testing competitors whose scent matches, then escalating contests when the competitor's fighting ability (more formally, Resource Holding Power) proves to be lower than that of a resource holder and (ii) by mixing the substances used for scent-rubbing with the unique substances used in scent-marking.     

Assessing Changes in Phosphorus Concentrations in Relation to In-Stream Plant Ecology in Lowland Permeable Catchments: Bringing Ecosystem Functioning Into Water Quality Monitoring

Changes in concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), excess partial pressure of carbon dioxide (EpCO₂), and chlorophyll-a were examined for two rivers in the in the upper Thames catchment: the main river Thames at Wallingford and a chalk stream tributary, the River Kennet. Sampling began in the spring of 1997 and has covered extremes in river flow conditions. During the sampling period there was a dramatic reduction in phosphorus (P) inputs from the introduction of effluent P-treatment at sewage treatment works, as a result of the EU Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive. Despite major reductions in baseflow SRP concentrations in the River Kennet, from around 700 μg-P L^-1 to around 100 μg-P L^-1, observations of aquatic plant communities indicate overall degradation in ecological quality since effluent P-treatment was introduced. The degradation was associated with a spring and summer decline in growth of Ranunculus, a macrophyte of high conservation value in chalk streams, particularly from 2000 onwards, linked to shading by epiphytic algae. Although the EpCO₂ records indicate a reduction in primary productivity since effluent P-treatment, the River Kennet may have become more sensitive to epiphyte blooms. Episodes of epiphyte proliferation appear to be linked temporally to small increases in SRP concentrations (typicallyabove a 100 μg-P L^-1 threshold) under summer baseflow conditions. The in-stream system is highly complex and individual processes and causality are difficult to resolve, particularly given changes in river flows linked to background climatic variability and limited availability of biological data. This study demonstrates the need for integrated long-term biological and chemical monitoring of river systems subject to major perturbations to assess timescales required to produce new dynamic equilibria in ecosystem response.     

Antenatal corticosteroids and outcomes in gastroschisis: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

Objective

In gastroschisis, there is evidence to suggest that gut dysfunction develops secondary to bowel inflammation; we aimed to evaluate the effect of maternal antenatal corticosteroids administered for obstetric reasons on time to full enteral feeds in a multicenter cohort study of gastroschisis infants.

Methods

A three center, retrospective cohort study (1992-2013) with linked fetal/neonatal gastroschisis data was conducted. The primary outcome measure was time to full enteral feeds (a surrogate measure for bowel function) and secondary outcome measure was length of hospital stay. Analysis included Mann-Whitney and Cox regression.

Results

Of 500 patients included in the study, 69 (GA at birth 34 [25-38] weeks) received antenatal corticosteroids and 431 (GA at birth 37 [31-41] weeks) did not. Antenatal corticosteroids had no effect on the rate of reaching full feeds (Hazard ratio HR 1.0 [95% CI: 0.8-1.4]). However, complex gastroschisis (HR 0.3 [95% CI: 0.2-0.4]) was associated with an increased time to reach full feeds and later GA at birth (HR 1.1 per week increase in GA [95% CI: 1.1-1.2]) was associated with a decreased time to reach full feeds.

Conclusion

Maternal antenatal corticosteroids use, under current antenatal steroid protocols, in gastroschisis is not associated with an improvement in neonatal outcomes such as time to full enteral feeds or length of hospital stay.