How Do River Nitrate Concentrations Respond to Changes in Land-use? A Modelling Case Study of Headwaters in the River Derwent Catchment,North Yorkshire,UK

A combined semi-distributed hydrological model (CASCADE/QUESTOR) is used to evaluate the steady-state that may be achieved after changes in land-use or management and to explore what additional factors need to be considered in representing catchment processes. Two rural headwater catchments of the River Derwent (North Yorkshire, UK) were studied where significant change in land-use occurred in the 1990s and the early 2000s. Much larger increases in mean nitrate concentration (55%) were observed in the catchment with significant groundwater influence (Pickering Beck) compared with the surface water-dominated catchment (13% increase). The increases in Pickering Beck were considerably greater than could be explained by the model in terms of land-use change. Consequently, the study serves to focus attention on the long-term increases in nitrate concentration reported in major UK aquifers and the ongoing and chronic impact this trend is likely to be having on surface water concentrations. For river environments, where groundwater is a source, such trends will mask the impact of measures proposed to reduce the risk of nitrate leaching from agricultural land. Model estimates of within-channel losses account for 15–40% of nitrate entering rivers.     

A comparison of speciated atmospheric mercury at an urban center and an upwind rural location

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), particulate mercury (PHg) and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) were measured every other hour at a rural location in south central Wisconsin (Devil's Lake State Park, WI, USA) between April 2003 and March 2004, and at a predominantly downwind urban site in southeastern Wisconsin (Milwaukee, WI, USA) between June 2004 and May 2005. Annual averages of GEM, PHg, and RGM at the urban site were statistically higher than those measured at the rural site. Pollution roses of GEM and reactive mercury (RM; sum of PHg and RGM) at the rural and urban sites revealed the influences of point source emissions in surrounding counties that were consistent with the US EPA 1999 National Emission Inventory and the 2003-2005 US EPA Toxics Release Inventory. Source-receptor relationships at both sites were studied by quantifying the impacts of point sources on mercury concentrations. Time series of GEM, PHg, and RGM concentrations were sorted into two categories; time periods dominated by impacts from point sources, and time periods dominated by mercury from non-point sources. The analysis revealed average point source contributions to GEM, PHg, and RGM concentration measurements to be significant over the year long studies. At the rural site, contributions to annual average concentrations were: GEM (2%; 0.04 ng m(-3)); and, RM (48%; 5.7 pg m(-3)). At the urban site, contributions to annual average concentrations were: GEM (33%; 0.81 ng m(-3)); and, RM (64%; 13.8 pg m(-3)).     

Impacts of groundwater metal loads from bedrock fractures on water quality of a mountain stream

Acid mine drainage and metal loads from hardrock mines to surface waters is a significant problem in the western USA and many parts of the world. Mines often occur in mountain environments with fractured bedrock aquifers that serve as pathways for metals transport to streams. This study evaluates impacts from current and potential future groundwater metal (Cd, Cu, and Zn) loads from fractures underlying the Gilt Edge Mine, South Dakota, on concentrations in Strawberry Creek using existing flow and water quality data and simple mixing/dilution mass balance models. Results showed that metal loads from bedrock fractures to the creek currently contribute <1% of total loads. Even if background water quality is achieved upstream in Strawberry Creek, fracture metal loads would be <5%. Fracture loads could increase substantially and cause stream water quality standards exceedances once groundwater with elevated metals concentrations in the aquifer matrix migrates to the fractures and discharges to the stream. Potential future metal loads from an upstream fracture would contribute a small proportion of the total load relative to current loads in the stream. Cd has the highest stream concentrations relative to standards. Even if all stream water was treated to remove 90% of the Cd, the standard would still not be achieved. At a fracture farther downstream, the Cd standard can only be met if the upstream water is treated achieving a 90% reduction in Cd concentrations and the median stream flow is maintained.     

Identifying key needs for the integration of social–ecological outcomes in arctic wildlife monitoring

For effective monitoring in social–ecological systems to meet needs for biodiversity, science, and humans, desired outcomes must be clearly defined and routes from direct to derived outcomes understood. The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic, ecological, social, and economic changes and requires effective wildlife monitoring to meet diverse stakeholder needs. To identify stakeholder priorities concerning desired outcomes of arctic wildlife monitoring, we conducted in-depth interviews with 29 arctic scientists, policy and decision makers, and representatives of indigenous organizations and nongovernmental organizations. Using qualitative content analysis, we identified and defined desired outcomes and documented links between outcomes. Using network analysis, we investigated the structure of perceived links between desired outcomes. We identified 18 desired outcomes from monitoring and classified them as either driven by monitoring information, monitoring process, or a combination of both. Highly cited outcomes were make decisions, conserve, detect change, disseminate, and secure food. These reflect key foci of arctic monitoring. Infrequently cited outcomes (e.g., govern) were emerging themes. Three modules comprised our outcome network. The modularity highlighted the low strength of perceived links between outcomes that were primarily information driven or more derived (e.g., detect change, make decisions, conserve, or secure food) and outcomes that were primarily process driven or more derived (e.g., cooperate, learn, educate). The outcomes expand monitoring community and disseminate created connections between these modules. Key desired outcomes are widely applicable to social–ecological systems within and outside the Arctic, particularly those with wildlife subsistence economies. Attributes and motivations associated with outcomes can guide development of integrated monitoring goals for biodiversity conservation and human needs. Our results demonstrated the disconnect between information- and process-driven goals and how expansion of the monitoring community and improved integration of monitoring stakeholders will help connect information- and process-derived outcomes for effective ecosystem stewardship.     

Prenatal diagnosis of Harlequin ichthyosis presenting as distal arthrogryposis using three-dimensional ultrasound

We describe a case of Harlequin Icthyosis where the main 2D and 3D ultrasound findings were digital contractures as opposed to the more commonly described severe facial dysmorphisms. A prenatal finding of distal arthrogryposis can therefore include harlequin icthyosis as a differential diagnosis, where 3D ultrasound may then disclose the facial features more commonly associated with the condition. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

46,XY/47,XY,+ 17p+ mosaicism in amniocytes associated with fetal abnormalities despite normal fetal blood karyotype

46,XY/47,XY, + 17p + mosaicism was found in two primary amniotic fluid cultures (AFCs). Fetal blood karyotype was normal, but ultrasonography revealed Dandy-Walker malformation and bilateral choroid plexus cysts. Following termination of pregnancy, fetal examination revealed post-axial polydactyly and neuroblastoma-in-situ affecting both adrenals in addition to the cerebellar abnormalities. Mosaicism for the aberrant cell line was confirmed in all fetal tissues sampled and in the placenta.     

Multiple mating in a lekking bird: why do peahens mate with more than one male and with the same male more than once?

Summary Approximately 50% of marked peahens (Pavo cristatus) mate more than once with lek males. Some females mate with more than one male, others copulate repeatedly with the same male. The frequency of courtship also shows marked variation. Some females repeatedly engage males in courtship interactions after they have succesfully copulated with them. The likelihood of mating with more than one male increases if a female first mates with a non-preferred (unsuccessful male). There is a non-significant tendency for females to copulate with a more successful male when remating. Peahens may mate with a non-preferred male first if they do not encounter a successful male during their initial period of choice, perhaps because the most successful male on a lek was courting another female and/or was defended by another female. There are more aggressive interactions between females in front of preferred males. Preferred males receive more repetitive courtship behaviour and repeated matings. Dominant females are more likely to engage in repetitive courtship and matings. The number of times a female initiates courtship on any one day increases with the number of other females actively courting males at a lek site on that day. We suggest that there is competition amongst females for access to preferred males and that dominant females try to monopolise these males by repeatedly engaging them in courtship interactions. We discuss the implications of these observations for the idea that female may gain directly from mate choice in a species where males contribute nothing but gametes to their offspring. Correspondence to: M. Petrie at the present address     

Using habitat suitability index and particle dispersion models for early detection of marine invaders.

Eradication and control of invasive species are often possible only if populations are detected when they are small and localized. To be efficient, detection surveys should be targeted at locations where there is the greatest risk of incursions. We examine the utility of habitat suitability index (HSI) and particle dispersion models for targeting sampling for marine pests. Habitat suitability index models are a simple way to identify suitable habitat when species distribution data are lacking. We compared the performance of HSI models with statistical models derived from independent data from New Zealand on the distribution of two nonindigenous bivalves: Theora lubrica and Musculista senhousia. Logistic regression models developed using the HSI scores as predictors of the presence/absence of Theora and Musculista explained 26.7% and 6.2% of the deviance in the data, respectively. Odds ratios for the HSI scores were greater than unity, indicating that they were genuine predictors of the presence/ absence of each species. The fit and predictive accuracy of each logistic model were improved when simulated patterns of dispersion from the nearest port were added as a predictor variable. Nevertheless, the combined model explained, at best, 46.5% of the deviance in the distribution of Theora and correctly predicted 56% of true presences and 50% of all cases. Omission errors were between 6% and 16%. Although statistical distribution models built directly from environmental predictors always outperformed the equivalent HSI models, the gain in model fit and accuracy was modest. High residual deviance in both types of model suggests that the distributions realized by Theora and Musculista in the field data were influenced by factors not explicitly modeled as explanatory variables and by error in the environmental data used to project suitable habitat for the species. Our results highlight the difficulty of accurately predicting the distribution of invasive marine species that exhibit low habitat occupancy and patchy distributions in time and space. Although the HSI and statistical models had utility as predictors of the likely distribution of nonindigenous marine species, the level of spatial accuracy achieved with them may be well below expectations for sensitive surveillance programs.     

Futurecoast: Predicting the future coastal evolution of England and Wales

Analysis of shoreline change is often based exclusively upon the littoral cell concept and modelling of hydrodynamic processes. The Futurecoast study has considered fresh approaches to assessing shoreline evolution, which have been used to provide an analysis of future long-term evolution for the entire shoreline of England and Wales. This has been based upon an improved understanding of coastal systems and their behavioural characteristics. The study has included a range of supporting studies, focussing upon maximizing use of existing information and experience. A number of additional data sets have also been produced. The integration of leading expertise from different areas of coastal research to collectively consider this information has been the foundation for the study. The key outputs from this research are: (1) Improved understanding of coastal behaviour; (2) Assessment of future shoreline evolution; (3) Supporting information and data; (4) Delivery of results on an interactive CD-ROM.