BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

HISTORICAL TRENDS IN SEDIMENTATION RATES AND SEDIMENT PROVENANCE,FAIRFIELD LAKE,WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA1

Sedimentation rates and sediment provenance were examined for lacustrine sediments deposited in Fairfield Lake, western North Carolina, during the past 111 years. Stratigraphic, radionuclide, and cartographic data indicate that sedimentation rates have increased several fold during the past three decades in response to localized development. The magnitude of increased sedimentation was surprising given limited development within the basin: 0.12 to 0.68 buildings/ha in 2000 in those parts directly delivering sediment to the dated cores. Thus, the analysis illustrates the potential sensitivity of watersheds in the southern Appalachians to changes in land cover. An approach that combined geochemical fingerprinting with sediment mixing models was subsequently evaluated to determine its ability to accurately estimate the contribution of sediment from (1) major bedrock formations that underlie the watershed and (2) potential sources associated with four land cover categories. Sediment sources in both analyses proved difficult to geochemically fingerprint to greater than 90 percent accuracy using data on acid‐soluble metals and selected isotopes of lead (Pb). The relative contributions of sediment from delineated sources, estimated by the mixing models, generally corresponded with known temporal and spatial patterns of land cover. However, the models were plagued by two significant problems — the chemical alteration of sediments as they were transported through upland streams to depositional sites within the lake and the loss of elemental mass. Thus, future investigations using the fingerprinting approach in this area of intense weathering, and presumably others, will need to modify the existing methods to more accurately elucidate changes in sediment provenance related to development.     

ACCURACY OF LAKE AND STREAM TEMPERATURES ESTIMATED FROM THERMAL INFRARED IMAGES1

Emitted thermal infrared radiation (TIR, λ= 8 to 14 μm) can be used to measure surface water temperatures (top approximately 100 μm). This study evaluates the accuracy of stream (50 to 500 m wide) and lake (300 to 5,000 m wide) radiant temperatures (15 to 22°C) derived from airborne (MASTER, 5 to 15 m) and satellite (ASTER 90 m, Landsat ETM+ 60 m) TIR images. Applied atmospheric compensations changed water temperatures by ?0.2 to +2.0°C. Atmospheric compensation depended primarily on atmospheric water vapor and temperature, sensor viewing geometry, and water temperature. Agreement between multiple TIR bands (MASTER ‐ 10 bands, ASTER ‐ 5 bands) provided an independent check on recovered temperatures. Compensations improved agreement between image and in situ surface temperatures (from 2.0 to 1.1°C average deviation); however, compensations did not improve agreement between river image temperatures and loggers installed at the stream bed (from 0.6 to 1.6°C average deviation). Analysis of field temperatures suggests that vertical thermal stratification may have caused a systematic difference between instream gage temperatures and corrected image temperatures. As a result, agreement between image temperatures and instream temperatures did not imply that accurate TIR temperatures were recovered. Based on these analyses, practical accuracies for corrected TIR lake and stream surface temperatures are around 1°C.     

DEVELOPMENT OF EMPIRICAL,GEOGRAPHICALLY SPECIFIC WATER QUALITY CRITERIA: A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS APPROACH1

The need for scientifically defensible water quality standards for nonpoint source pollution control continues to be a pressing environmental issue. The probability of impact at differing levels of nonpoint source pollution was determined using the biological response of instream organisms empirically obtained from a statistical survey. A conditional probability analysis was used to calculate a biological threshold of impact as a function of the likelihood of exceeding a given value of pollution metric for a specified geographic area. Uncertainty and natural variability were inherently incorporated into the analysis through the use of data from a probabilistic survey. Data from wadable streams in the mid‐Atlantic area of the U.S. were used to demonstrate the approach. Benthic macroinvertebrate community index values (EPT taxa richness) were used to identify impacted stream communities. Percent fines in substrate (silt/clay fraction, > 0.06 mm) were used as a surrogate indicator for sedimentation. Thresholds of impact due to sedimentation were identified by three different techniques, and were in the range of 12 to 15 percent fines. These values were consistent with existing literature from laboratory and field studies on the impact of sediments on aquatic life in freshwater streams. All results were different from values determined from current regulatory guidance. Finally, it was illustrated how these thresholds could be used to develop criterion for protection of aquatic life in streams.     

A comparative study of US EPA 1996 and 1999 emission inventories in the west Gulf of Mexico coast region, USA

Emission inventory is one of the required inputs to air quality models. To assist in the urban and regional modeling efforts, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has compiled a National Emission Inventory (NEI) for criterion pollutants, and the precursors of ozone and particulate matter (PM). In December 2002, EPA released the 1999 NEI estimates (NEI99), which represent the most recent national emission data. However, the data sets are not in model-ready format for air quality simulations. This present work converts the NEI99 Final Version 2 data sets into Inventory Data Analyzer (IDA) format and processes the data using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system to generate a gridded emission inventory in a domain covering the west Gulf Coast Region, USA. The spatial and diurnal emission characteristics of the gridded emission inventories are then assessed and compared with those of the National Emission Trend 1996 (NET96). The NEI99 database contains more complete emission records in both area and point sources. It is also found that NEI99 data exhibit greater emissions with respect to point and mobile sources but smaller emissions with respect to area sources when compared to the corresponding gridded NET96 data in the same study domain. The most distinct differences between the NEI99 and NET96 databases are CO emission of mobile sources, SO2 emissions of point sources, and VOC/PM/NH3/NOx emissions of area and non-road sources. The gridded NEI99 data show low VOC/NOx ratios (<2-5) in the urban areas of the study domain.     

Increased bioavailability of metals in two contrasting agricultural soils treated with waste wood-derived biochar and ash

Recycled waste wood is being increasingly used for energy production; however, organic and metal contaminants in by-products produced from the combustion/pyrolysis residue may pose a significant environmental risk if they are disposed of to land. Here we conducted a study to evaluate if highly polluted biochar (from pyrolysis) and ash (from incineration) derived from Cu-based preservative-treated wood led to different metal (e.g., Cu, As, Ni, Cd, Pb, and Zn) bioavailability and accumulation in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.). In a pot experiment, biochar at a common rate of 2 % w/w, corresponding to ～50 t ha^?1, and an equivalent pre-combustion dose of wood ash (0.2 % w/w) were added to a Eutric Cambisol (pH 6.02) and a Haplic Podzol (pH 4.95), respectively. Both amendments initially raised soil pH, although this effect was relatively short-term, with pH returning close to the unamended control within about 7 weeks. The addition of both amendments resulted in an exceedance of soil Cu statutory limit, together with a significant increase of Cu and plant nutrient (e.g., K) bioavailability. The metal-sorbing capacity of the biochar, and the temporary increase in soil pH caused by adding the ash and biochar were insufficient to offset the amount of free metal released into solution. Sunflower plants were negatively affected by the addition of metal-treated wood-derived biochar and led to elevated concentration of metals in plant tissue, and reduced above- and below-ground biomass, while sunflower did not grow at all in the Haplic Podzol. Biochar and ash derived from wood treated with Cu-based preservatives can lead to extremely high Cu concentrations in soil and negatively affect plant growth. Identifying sources of contaminated wood in waste stream feedstocks is crucial before large-scale application of biochar or wood ash to soil is considered.     

The role of scientists in statutory interpretation of the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Like many federal statutes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) contains vague or ambiguous language. The meaning imparted to the ESA's unclear language can profoundly impact the fates of endangered and threatened species. Hence, conservation scientists should contribute to the interpretation of the ESA when vague or ambiguous language contains scientific words or refers to scientific concepts. Scientists need to know at least these 2 facts about statutory interpretation: statutory interpretation is subjective and the potential influence of normative values results in different expectations for the parties involved. With the possible exception of judges, all conventional participants in statutory interpretation are serving their own interests, advocating for their preferred policies, or biased. Hence, scientists can play a unique role by informing the interpretative process with objective, policy‐neutral information. Conversely, scientists may act as advocates for their preferred interpretation of unclear statutory language. The different roles scientists might play in statutory interpretation raise the issues of advocacy and competency. Advocating for a preferred statutory interpretation is legitimate political behavior by scientists, but statutory interpretation can be strongly influenced by normative values. Therefore, scientists must be careful not to commit stealth policy advocacy. Most conservation scientists lack demonstrable competence in statutory interpretation and therefore should consult or collaborate with lawyers when interpreting statutes. Professional scientific societies are widely perceived by the public as unbiased sources of objective information. Therefore, professional scientific societies should remain policy neutral and present all interpretations of unclear statutory language; explain the semantics and science both supporting and contradicting each interpretation; and describe the potential consequences of implementing each interpretation. A review of scientists’ interpretations of the phrase “significant portion of its range” in the ESA is used to critique the role of scientists and professional societies in statutory interpretation.     

Emerging technology for increasing glucosinolates in arugula and mustard greens

Two plant species, arugula (Eruca sativa) and mustard (Brassica juncea) were field-grown under four soil management practices: soil mixed with municipal sewage sludge (SS), soil mixed with horse manure (HM), soil mixed with chicken manure (CM), and no-mulch bare soil (NM) to investigate the impact of soil amendments on the concentration of glucosinolates (GSLs) in their shoots. GSLs, hydrophilic plant secondary metabolites in arugula and mustard were extracted using boiling methanol and separated by adsorption on sephadex ion exchange disposable pipette tips filled with DEAE, a weak base, with a net positive charge that exchange anions such as GSLs. Quantification of GSLs was based on inactivation of arugula and mustard myrosinase and liberation of the glucose moiety from the GSLs molecule by addition of standardized myrosinase (thioglucosidase) and spectrophotometric quantification of the liberated glucose moiety. Overall, GSLs concentrations were significantly greater (1287 µg g^?1 fresh shoots) in plants grown in SS compared to 929, 890, and 981 µg g^?1 fresh shoots in plants grown in CM, HM, and NM soil, respectively. Results also revealed that mustard shoots contained greater concentrations of GSLs (974 µg g^?1 fresh shoots) compared to arugula (651 µg g^?1 fresh shoots).     

Herbicide toxicity,selectivity and hormesis of nicosulfuron on 10 Trichogrammatidae (Hymenoptera) species parasitizing Anagasta ( = Ephestia) kuehniella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) eggs

Selective agrochemicals including herbicides that do not affect non-target organisms such as natural enemies are important in the integrated pest management (IPM) programs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the herbicide toxicity, selectivity and hormesis of nicosulfuron, recommended for the corn Zea mays L. (Poaceae) crop, on 10 Trichogrammatidae (Hymenoptera) species. A female of each Trichogramma spp. or Trichogrammatoidea annulata De Santis, 1972 was individually placed in plastic test tubes (no choice) with a cardboard containing 45 flour moth Anagasta ( = Ephestia) kuehniella Zeller, 1879 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) eggs. Parasitism by these natural enemies was allowed for 48 h and the cardboards were sprayed with the herbicide nicosulfuron at 1.50 L.ha^?1, along with the control (only distilled water). Nicosulfuron reduced the emergence rate of Trichogramma bruni Nagaraja, 1983 females, but increased that of Trichogramma pretiosum Riley, 1879, Trichogramma acacioi Brun, Moraes and Smith, 1984 and T. annulata females. Conversely, this herbicide increased the emergence rate of Trichogramma brasiliensis Ashmead, 1904, T. bruni, Trichogramma galloi Zucchi, 1988 and Trichogramma soaresi Nagaraja, 1983 males and decreased those of T. acacioi, Trichogramma atopovilia Oatman and Platner, 1983 and T. pretiosum males. In addition, nicosulfuron reduced the sex ratio of T. galloi, Trichogramma bennetti Nagaraja and Nagarkatti, 1973 and T. pretiosum and increased that of T. acacioi, T. bruni, T. annulata, Trichogramma demoraesi Nagaraja, 1983, T. soaresi and T. brasiliensis. The herbicide nicosulfuron was “harmless” (class 1, <30% reduction) for females and the sex ratio of all Trichogrammatidae species based on the International Organization for Biological Control (IOBC) classification. The possible hormesis effect of nicosulfuron on Trichogrammatidae species and on the bacterium Wolbachia sp. (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) was also discussed.