Generalised Additive Models and Random Forest Approach as effective methods for predictive species density and functional species richness

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Species distribution modelling (SDM) is a family of statistical methods where species occurrence/density/richness are combined with environmental...     

Are Landscape Configuration Metrics Worth Including When Predicting Specialist and Generalist Bird Species Density? A Case of the Generalised Additive Model Approach

Due to the complexity of factors that influence species density on a large geographical scale, the effectiveness of the species distribution model (SDM) is still debatable. That is why the buffer zone (the area within 100 m from the outside edge of the patch), the core, i.e. (patches excluding the 100 m buffer zone from the patch’s edge) and patch shape are explored in this study to see how they affect the density of habitat specialist and generalist bird species. Two sets of generalised additive models were generated separately for each of the four bird species: One set of models contained landscape configuration metrics as an additional predictor variable, and the other did not. The results showed that models including the core, the buffer zone and the shape of patches turned out to be definitely better than models without them. Specialist species, the Corn bunting and the Wood nuthatch, are more likely to occur in the core of the preferred patches, and they choose those of a simple shape; while generalist species, the Whinchat and the Tree pipit, are more probable to be present in the buffer zone of a more complicated shape. Thus, the results clearly show that specific landscape configuration models can improve the predictive power of SDMs and can be used as an effective tool for predicting species density and functional bird diversity (specialist and generalist). Furthermore, from the applied ecology perspective, detailed landscape configuration metrics can be considered as a surrogate of elusive habitat conditions.     

Rising trends of dissolved organic matter in drinking-water reservoirs as a result of recovery from acidification in the Ore Mts., Czech Republic

The concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), a common proxy for dissolved organic matter (DOM), was measured at seven drinking-water reservoirs and four streams between 1969 and 2006. Nine of them showed significant DOM increases (median COD change +0.08 mg L⁻¹ yr⁻¹). Several potential drivers of these trends were considered, including air temperature, rainfall, land-use and water sulfate concentration. Temperature and precipitation influenced inter-annual variations, but not long-term trends. The long-term DOM increase was significantly associated with declines of acidic deposition, especially sulfur deposition. Surface water sulfate concentrations decreased from a median of 62 mg L⁻¹-27 mg L⁻¹ since 1980. The magnitude of DOM increase was positively correlated with average DOM concentration (R² = 0.79, p < 0.001). Simultaneously, DOM concentration was positively correlated with the proportion of Histosols within the catchments (R² = 0.79, p < 0.001). A focus on the direct removal of DOM by water treatment procedures rather than catchment remediation is needed.     

Novel approach to monitoring of the soil biological quality

In this study, a new approach to interpretation of results of the simple microbial biomass and respiration measurements in the soil microbiology is proposed. The principle is based on eight basal and derived microbial parameters, which are standardized and then plotted into sunray plots. The output is visual presentation of one plot for each soil, which makes possible the relative comparison and evaluation of soils in the monitored set. Problems of soil microbiology, such as the lack of benchmarking and reference values, can be avoided by using the proposed method. We found that eight parameters provide enough information for evaluation of the status of the soil microorganisms and, thus, for evaluation of the soil biological quality. The usage of rare parameters (potential respiration PR, ratio of potential and basal respiration PR/BR, biomass-specific potential respiration PR/C(bio), available organic carbon C(ext), and biomass-specific available organic carbon C(ext)/C(bio)) can be recommended, besides classical and well-known parameters (microbial biomass C(bio), basal respiration BR, metabolic coefficient qCO(2)). The combination of basal parameters and derived coefficients can also extend our knowledge about the condition of the soil microorganisms. In monitoring the case studies presented, we observed that soils evaluated to possess good biological quality displayed generally higher values of organic carbon, total nitrogen, clay, and cation exchange capacity. The soils of good biological quality can display higher levels of contaminants. This is probably related with the higher content of organic carbon and clay in these soils.     

On technical change in the elasticities of resource inputs

This article analyses growth of an economy where the substitutability between non-renewable and renewable resource inputs changes over time. We allow for exogenous technical change in the elasticity of substitution (EoS) between these two types of resources as well as for biased factor-augmenting technical change. Our main results are: (1) sustained technical change in the EoS is enough to overcome resource constraints; (2) productivity-enhancing technical change is most beneficial when directed to the resource which is currently most important for production; (3) the speed of productivity-enhancing technical change is crucial for its usefulness to overcome resource constraints; (4) sustainability depends critically on the type of technical change.     

Comparison of two reactor concepts for anoxygenic H2 production by Rhodobacter capsulatus

In the contribution at hand two main concepts of photobioreactors are considered: the flat-panel reactor and the tubular reactor. Both reactors are investigated under outdoor conditions in Germany in the summer time for their applicability for H₂ production by means of purple non-sulphur bacteria Rhodobacter capsulatus. The experiments are performed as fed batch. The performance of a photobioreactor is evaluated in terms of H₂ productivity per IRS (illuminated reactor surface). It is demonstrated that both reactors could be operated stable for several weeks with comparable H₂ productivities. The mean hydrogen productivity for the panel and the tubular reactor is 3690 ml H₂/(m_IRS² d) and 3350 ml H₂/(m_IRS² d) respectively. While approximately 8 m² of the illuminated reactor surface of the panel reactor can be installed on 1 m² of ground space, the relation of the illuminated reactor surface to the ground area for the tubular reactor is approximately 1–1.     

Effects of seven organic pollutants on soil nematode Caenorhabditis elegans

Caenorhabditis elegans is a free-living soil nematode that is commonly used as a model for toxicity tests. The aim of this study was to investigate the toxicity of seven organic pollutants: four azaarenes (quinoline, acridine, phenazine, and 1,10-phenanthroline), short-chain chlorinated paraffins, and two organochlorinated pesticides (toxaphene and hexachlorobenzene). The exposure to all chemicals was carried out in three test media (soil, agar, and aquatic medium), and adult mortality was evaluated after 24 and 48 h. Toxaphene was the most toxic substance with LC(50) (48 h) of 379 mg/kg in the soil and 0.2 mg/L in the aquatic medium. Quinoline was the most toxic chemical in agar test with LC(50) (48 h) of 10 mg/L. HCB showed a very low toxicity in all tests, maybe due to its very low water solubility. Longer than 24-h test duration was found necessary for getting more correct data on toxicity. In comparison with other studies, C. elegans was less sensitive than other soil invertebrates. Different response might be attributed to different exposure routes and shorter test duration. Equilibrium partitioning theory was used to calculate K(oc) from results of soil and aquatic tests but this approach was found not working. Our results suggest that the tests with nematode C. elegans should be included to the battery of tests for risk assessment of POPs in soil.     

Estimation of abundance from presence–absence maps using cluster models

A presence–absence map consists of indicators of the occurrence or nonoccurrence of a given species in each cell over a grid, without counting the number of individuals in a cell once it is known it is occupied. They are commonly used to estimate the distribution of a species, but our interest is in using these data to estimate the abundance of the species. In practice, certain types of species (in particular flora types) may be spatially clustered. For example, some plant communities will naturally group together according to similar environmental characteristics within a given area. To estimate abundance, we develop an approach based on clustered negative binomial models with unknown cluster sizes. Our approach uses working clusters of cells to construct an estimator which we show is consistent. We also introduce a new concept called super-clustering used to estimate components of the standard errors and interval estimators. A simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of the estimators and they are applied to real data.     

Catalyzing sustainable fisheries management through behavior change interventions

Small-scale fisheries are an important livelihood and primary protein source for coastal communities in many of the poorest regions in the world, yet many are overfished and thus require effective and scalable management solutions. Positive ecological and socioeconomic responses to management typically lag behind immediate costs borne by fishers from fishing pressure reductions necessary for fisheries recovery. These short-term costs challenge the long-term success of these interventions. However, social marketing may increase perceptions of management benefits before ecological and socioeconomic benefits are fully realized, driving new social norms and ultimately long-term sustainable behavior change. By conducting underwater visual surveys to quantify ecological conditions and by conducting household surveys with community members to quantify their perceptions of management support and socioeconomic conditions, we assessed the impact of a standardized small-scale fisheries management intervention that was implemented across 41 sites in Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The intervention combines TURF reserves (community-based territorial use rights for fishing coupled with no-take marine reserves) with locally tailored social-marketing behavior change campaigns. Leveraging data across 22 indicators and 4 survey types, along with data from 3 control sites, we found that ecological and socioeconomic impacts varied and that communities supported the intervention and were already changing their fishing practices. These results suggest that communities were developing new social norms and fishing more sustainably before long-term ecological and socioeconomic benefits of fisheries management materialized.