Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian birds

Although evidence-based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conservation measures for the management of threatened taxa, there are no standard metrics for assessing progress in research or management. We developed 5 metrics to meet this need for threatened taxa and to quantify the need for further action and effective alleviation of threats. These metrics (research need, research achievement, management need, management achievement, and percent threat reduction) can be aggregated to examine trends for an individual taxon or for threats across multiple taxa. We tested the utility of these metrics by applying them to Australian threatened birds, which appears to be the first time that progress in research and management of threats has been assessed for all threatened taxa in a faunal group at a continental scale. Some research has been conducted on nearly three-quarters of known threats to taxa, and there is a clear understanding of how to alleviate nearly half of the threats with the highest impact. Some management has been attempted on nearly half the threats. Management outcomes ranged from successful trials to complete mitigation of the threat, including for one-third of high-impact threats. Progress in both research and management tended to be greater for taxa that were monitored or occurred on oceanic islands. Predation by cats had the highest potential threat score. However, there has been some success reducing the impact of cat predation, so climate change (particularly drought), now poses the greatest threat to Australian threatened birds. Our results demonstrate the potential for the proposed metrics to encapsulate the major trends in research and management of both threats and threatened taxa and provide a basis for international comparisons of evidence-based conservation science.     

Generalised Additive Models and Random Forest Approach as effective methods for predictive species density and functional species richness

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Species distribution modelling (SDM) is a family of statistical methods where species occurrence/density/richness are combined with environmental...     

High efficiency chlorine removal from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pyrolysis with a gas–liquid fluidized bed reactor

In this research a gas–liquid fluidized bed reactor was developed for removing chlorine (Cl) from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) to favor its pyrolysis treatment. In order to efficiently remove Cl within a limited time before extensive generation of hydrocarbon products, the gas–liquid fluidized bed reactor was running at 280–320 °C, where hot N₂ was used as fluidizing gas to fluidize the molten polymer, letting the molten polymer contact well with N₂ to release Cl in form of HCl. Experimental results showed that dechlorination efficiency is mainly temperature dependent and 300 °C is a proper reaction temperature for efficient dechlorination within a limited time duration and for prevention of extensive pyrolysis; under this temperature 99.5% of Cl removal efficiency can be obtained within reaction time around 1 min after melting is completed as the flow rate of N₂ gas was set around 0.47–0.85 Nm³ kg^?1 for the molten PVC. Larger N₂ flow rate and additives in PVC would enhance HCl release but did not change the final dechlorination efficiency; and excessive N₂ flow rate should be avoided for prevention of polymer entrainment. HCl is emitted from PVC granules or scraps at the mean time they started to melt and the melting stage should be taken into consideration when design the gas–liquid fluidized bed reactor for dechlorination.     

基于突发事件生命周期视角的应急物流虚拟联合体的运行模型研究

从突发事件生命周期视角出发,对突发事件的生命周期动态演化全过程进行研究,将突发事件的生命周期分为潜伏期、爆发期、蔓延期、恢复期四个阶段,并深入分析突发事件阶段性特点,推知每一阶段物资需求和应急物流特性。通过跟踪突发事件生命周期演化过程,相应地将应急物流虚拟联合体的运行分为酝酿期、组建起、运行期、终止期四个阶段,并根据每一阶段应急物流特性构建应急物流虚拟联合体在各周期阶段的运行模型,最后阐述了虚拟联合体运行的几点注意事项。目的是切实有效地集成和整合社会专业资源,科学指导应急物流虚拟联合体的社会实践,提高突发事件整体应对能力。     

Measuring the impact of the pet trade on Indonesian birds

The trade in wild animals involves one‐third of the world's bird species and thousands of other vertebrate species. Although a few species are imperiled as a result of the wildlife trade, the lack of field studies makes it difficult to gauge how serious a threat it is to biodiversity. We used data on changes in bird abundances across space and time and information from trapper interviews to evaluate the effects of trapping wild birds for the pet trade in Sumatra, Indonesia. To analyze changes in bird abundance over time, we used data gathered over 14 years of repeated bird surveys in a 900‐ha forest in southern Sumatra. In northern Sumatra, we surveyed birds along a gradient of trapping accessibility, from the edge of roads to 5 km into the forest interior. We interviewed 49 bird trappers in northern Sumatra to learn which species they targeted and how far they went into the forest to trap. We used prices from Sumatran bird markets as a proxy for demand and, therefore, trapping pressure. Market price was a significant predictor of species declines over time in southern Sumatra (e.g., given a market price increase of approximately $50, the log change in abundance per year decreased by 0.06 on average). This result indicates a link between the market‐based pet trade and community‐wide species declines. In northern Sumatra, price and change in abundance were not related to remoteness (distance from the nearest road). However, based on our field surveys, high‐value species were rare or absent across this region. The median maximum distance trappers went into the forest each day was 5.0 km. This suggests that trapping has depleted bird populations across our remoteness gradient. We found that less than half of Sumatra's remaining forests are >5 km from a major road. Our results suggest that trapping for the pet trade threatens birds in Sumatra. Given the popularity of pet birds across Southeast Asia, additional studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and magnitude of the threat posed by the pet trade.     

Incorporating uncertainty in a chemical leaching assessment

Pesticide leaching models are being used to assist in the regulation and management of pesticides by indicating their potential for leaching to groundwater. Uncertainty in model input data is not, regrettably, included in most pesticide leaching assessments. In the work described here, we use logarithmic transformations of the attenuation factor (AF), a simple process-based index model, to represent uncertainty in a pesticide leaching assessment. Characterization of a wide range of pesticides as `leachers' or `non-leachers' for a specific Hawaii hydrogeological setting is facilitated by comparing the log-transformed AF, designated AFR, for each chemical with two reference chemicals for which leaching behavior in Hawaii is known. Defining a mean and uncertainty interval for the AFR index of each chemical being ranked provides a practical method of incorporating data uncertainty into a regulatory protocol.