A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS TO GROUNDWATER MONITORING NETWORK DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Effective monitoring configurations for contaminant detection in groundwater can be designed by analyzing the spatial relationships between candidate sampling sites and aquifer zones susceptible to contamination. Examples of such zones are the domain underlying the contaminant source, zones of probable contaminant migration, and areas occupied by water supply wells. Geographic information systems (GIS) are well-suited to performing key groundwater monitoring network design tasks, such as calculating values for distance variables which quantify the proximity of candidate sites to zones of high pollution susceptibility, and utilizing these variables to quantify relative monitoring value throughout a model domain. Through a case study application, this paper outlines the utility of GIS for detection-based groundwater quality monitoring network design. The results suggest that GIS capabilities for analyzing spatially referenced data can enhance the field-applicability of established methodologies for groundwater monitoring network design.     

Doing the Right Thing: Relief Agencies, Moral Dilemmas and Moral Responsibility in Political Emergemcies and War

In recent years a new generation of relief workers and relief agencies has become embroiled in the heat of civil wars and political emergencies, and the humanitarian community has had to revisit its fundamental principles and address the ethics of what it does. This paper sets out to continue this important debate by emphasising that ethical analysis should always be an essential part of humanitarian practice. The paper seeks to recognise the difficult moral choices relief agencies are facing today and gives some practical guidelines to relief agency staff when confronting the ethics of a given situation. In particular, it hopes to introduce some ethical principles into the debate about humanitarianism and contribute to the moral vocabulary which is being developed to improve relief agencies' ethical analysis. The paper starts by looking at the essential characteristics of a moral dilemma, and the way in which other types of tough choice can masquerade as moral dilemmas. It then introduces some basic moral principles surrounding the key ethical notions of action, consequences and moral responsibility in an effort to show how relief agencies might begin to develop a process of ethical analysis in their work. Finally, it explores how relief agencies might develop a more intuitive form of ethical analysis based on an organisational conscience and moral role models.     

Secondary organic aerosol formation from ozone-initiated reactions with nicotine and secondhand tobacco smoke

We used controlled laboratory experiments to evaluate the aerosol-forming potential of ozone reactions with nicotine and secondhand smoke. Special attention was devoted to real-time monitoring of the particle size distribution and chemical composition of SOA as they are believed to be key factors determining the toxicity of SOA. The experimental approach was based on using a vacuum ultraviolet photon ionization time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (VUV-AMS), a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) and off-line thermal desorption coupled to mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS) for gas-phase byproducts analysis. Results showed that exposure of SHS to ozone induced the formation of ultrafine particles (<100 nm) that contained high molecular weight nitrogenated species (m/z 400–500), which can be due to accretion/acid–base reactions and formation of oligomers. In addition, nicotine was found to contribute significantly (with yields 4–9%) to the formation of secondary organic aerosol through reaction with ozone. The main constituents of the resulting SOA were tentatively identified and a reaction mechanism was proposed to elucidate their formation. These findings identify a new component of thirdhand smoke that is associated with the formation of ultrafine particles (UFP) through oxidative aging of secondhand smoke. The significance of this chemistry for indoor exposure and health effects is highlighted.     

Perception of the effects of climate change in winter and summer tourist areas: the Pyrenees and the Catalan and Balearic coasts,Spain

In this study, we compare the perception of climate change in two different tourist settings of northeastern Spain: the Catalan Pyrenees and the Catalan Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands. We carried out a survey of 906 cases (506 in the coastal areas of Catalonia and the Balearic Islands and 400 in the Catalan Pyrenees) asking residents on those areas to assess the possible effects of climate change on tourist-related activities. While the existence of climate change and of its estimated impacts is widely accepted, we observe statistically significant differences in most of the questions between residents in the coastal areas and residents in the Pyrenees. In general terms, respondents from the Pyrenees display a much higher concern regarding the economic impacts of climate change on tourism. On the other hand, the results also show that some demographic groups, such as women, members of large households, or unemployed, tend to present higher levels of concern. This study may give new hints on which tourist modalities and which groups are more concerned for the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean tourist environments and could translate into more targeted adaptive and mitigation practices.     

Ionic species associated with PM2.5 in the City of Guadalajara, México during 2007

Atmospheric aerosol particles were collected from January to December 2007 at two sites in the City of Guadalajara. The first site (Centro) is located in the downtown, which is characterized by high vehicular traffic, and the second site (Miravalle) is in the southern part of the city, characterized by emissions from high industrial and vehicular activity. Sulfates, nitrates, and ammonium were the most abundant ions at both sites. Similar concentrations of sulfates, nitrates, and ammonium were observed throughout the year at Centro while only sulfates and nitrates were similar at Miravalle. From the balance of anions and cations at the two sites, Centro was determined to have acidic particles, while at Miravalle, the particles were alkaline. Based on the analysis of the ammonium/sulfate molar ratios, it was determined that in Centro, there was not enough ammonium to neutralize the sulfate, while at Miravalle, ammonium practically neutralized all sulfate.     

Inputs of heavy metals due to agrochemical use in tobacco fields in Brazil’s Southern Region

Only a few studies have assessed the joint incorporation of heavy metals into agricultural systems based on the range of agrochemicals used on a specific agricultural crop. This study was conducted to assess the heavy metals input through application of the main agrochemicals used in Brazilian tobacco fields. A total of 56 samples of different batches of 5 fertilizers, 3 substrates, 8 insecticides, 3 fungicides, 2 herbicides, and 1 growth regulator commonly used in the cultivation of tobacco in Brazil’s Southern Region were collected from 3 warehouses located in the States of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná. The total As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn content of the samples was then determined and compared with the regulations of different countries and information found in the available literature. The fertilizers were identified as the primary source of heavy metals among the agrochemicals used. Application of pesticides directly to the shoots of tobacco plants contributed very little to the supply of heavy metals. The agrochemicals used in Brazilian tobacco fields provide lower inputs of the main heavy metals that are nonessential for plants than those registered in the international literature for the majority of crop fields in different regions of the world.