Assessing environmentally significant effects: a better strength-of-evidence than a single P value?

Interpreting a P value from a traditional nil hypothesis test as a strength-of-evidence for the existence of an environmentally important difference between two populations of continuous variables (e.g. a chemical concentration) has become commonplace. Yet, there is substantial literature, in many disciplines, that faults this practice. In particular, the hypothesis tested is virtually guaranteed to be false, with the result that P depends far too heavily on the number of samples collected (the ‘sample size’). The end result is a swinging burden-of-proof (permissive at low sample size but precautionary at large sample size). We propose that these tests be reinterpreted as direction detectors (as has been proposed by others, starting from 1960) and that the test’s procedure be performed simultaneously with two types of equivalence tests (one testing that the difference that does exist is contained within an interval of indifference, the other testing that it is beyond that interval—also known as bioequivalence testing). This gives rise to a strength-of-evidence procedure that lends itself to a simple confidence interval interpretation. It is accompanied by a strength-of-evidence matrix that has many desirable features: not only a strong/moderate/dubious/weak categorisation of the results, but also recommendations about the desirability of collecting further data to strengthen findings.     

Estimated occupational risk from bioaerosols generated during land application of class B biosolids

Some speculate that bioaerosols from land application of biosolids pose occupational risks, but few studies have assessed aerosolization of microorganisms from biosolids or estimated occupational risks of infection. This study investigated levels of microorganisms in air immediately downwind of land application operations and estimated occupational risks from aerosolized microorganisms. In all, more than 300 air samples were collected downwind of biosolids application sites at various locations within the United States. Coliform bacteria, coliphages, and heterotrophic plate count (HPC) bacteria were enumerated from air and biosolids at each site. Concentrations of coliforms relative to Salmonella and concentrations of coliphage relative to enteroviruses in biosolids were used, in conjunction with levels of coliforms and coliphages measured in air during this study, to estimate exposure to Salmonella and enteroviruses in air. The HPC bacteria were ubiquitous in air near land application sites whether or not biosolids were being applied, and concentrations were positively correlated to windspeed. Coliform bacteria were detected only when biosolids were being applied to land or loaded into land applicators. Coliphages were detected in few air samples, and only when biosolids were being loaded into land applicators. In general, environmental parameters had little impact on concentrations of microorganisms in air immediately downwind of land application. The method of land application was most correlated to aerosolization. From this large body of data, the occupational risk of infection from bioaerosols was estimated to be 0.78 to 2.1%/yr. Extraordinary exposure scenarios carried an estimated annual risk of infection of up to 34%, with viruses posing the greatest threat. Risks from aerosolized microorganisms at biosolids land application sites appear to be lower than those at wastewater treatment plants, based on previously reported literature.     

A new method to quantify the impact of soil carbon management on biophysical soil properties: the example of two apple orchard systems in New Zealand

A new method to diagnose the environmental sustainability of specific orchard management practices was derived and tested. As a significant factor for soil quality, the soil carbon (C) management in the topsoil of the tree-row of an integrated and organic apple orchard was selected and compared. Soil C management was defined as land management practices that maintain or increase soil C. We analyzed the impact of the soil C management on biological (microbial biomass C, basal respiration, dehydrogenase activity, respiratory quotient) and physical (aggregate stability, amount of plant-available water, conductive mean pore diameter near water saturation) soil properties. Soil in the alley acted as a reference for the managed soil in the tree row. The total and hot-water-extractable C amounts served as a combined proxy for the soil C management. The soil C management accounted for 0 to 81% of the degradation or enhancement of biophysical soil properties in the integrated and organic system. In the integrated system, soil C management led to a loss of C in the top 0.3 m of the tree row within 12 yr, causing a decrease in microbial activities. In the tree row of the organic orchard, C loss occurred in the top 0.1 m, and the decrease in microbial activities was small or not significant. Regarding physical soil properties, the C loss in the integrated system led to a decrease of the aggregate stability, whereas it increased in the organic system. Generally, the impact of soil C management was better correlated with soil microbial than with the physical properties. With respect to environmental soil functions that are sensitive to the decrease in microbial activity or aggregate stability, soil C management was sustainable in the organic system but not in the integrated system.     

Soil-atmosphere trace gas exchange in semiarid and arid zones

A review is presented on trace gas exchange of CH4, CO, N2O, and NOx arising from agriculture and natural sources in the world's semiarid and arid zones due to soil processes. These gases are important contributors to the radiative forcing and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Quantitative information is summarized from the available studies. Between 5 and 40% of the global soil-atmosphere exchange for these gases (CH4, CO, N2O, and NOx) may occur in semiarid and arid zones, but for each of these gases there are fewer than a dozen studies to support the individual estimates, and these are from a limited number of locations. Significant differences in the biophysical and chemical processes controlling these trace gas exchanges are identified through the comparison of semiarid and arid zones with the moist temperate or wet/dry savanna land regions. Therefore, there is a poorly quantified understanding of the contribution of these regions to the global trace gas cycles and atmospheric chemistry. More importantly, there is a poor understanding of the feedback between these exchanges, global change, and regional land use and air pollution issues. A set of research issues is presented.     

Global Urban Growth and the Geography of Water Availability,Quality, and Delivery

Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.     

Mobile passive samplers: concept for a novel mode of exposure

Integrative passive sampling with devices such as semipermeable membrane devices generally relies on rigs for month-long static exposures in water. We evaluate here whether mobile exposures of passive samplers can provide reliable estimates of dissolved contaminant concentrations. Mobile exposures were obtained by towing samplers fastened to the end of a benthic trawl net. Significant and reproducible absorption of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons during 5 h-long deployments was made possible by high sampling rates resulting from high water turbulences during towing at 1.2-1.5 knots. Sampling rates (72-215 L d⁻¹) estimated from the dissipation of performance reference compounds were supported by in situ calibration with samplers exposed for a 30 days in the vicinity of the test site. Higher fluoranthene and pyrene absorption in samplers exposed to the trawling-induced sediment plume could be attributed to desorption from re-suspended sediments. This mode of exposure has the potential to be used in monitoring programmes.     

A lake classification concept for a more accurate global estimate of the dissolved inorganic carbon export from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters

The magnitude of lateral dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters strongly influences the estimate of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO₂) sink. At present, no reliable number of this export is available, and the few studies estimating the lateral DIC export assume that all lakes on Earth function similarly. However, lakes can function along a continuum from passive carbon transporters (passive open channels) to highly active carbon transformers with efficient in-lake CO₂ production and loss. We developed and applied a conceptual model to demonstrate how the assumed function of lakes in carbon cycling can affect calculations of the global lateral DIC export from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters. Using global data on in-lake CO₂ production by mineralization as well as CO₂ loss by emission, primary production, and carbonate precipitation in lakes, we estimated that the global lateral DIC export can lie within the range of \( {0.70}_{-0.31}^{+0.27} \) to \( {1.52}_{-0.90}^{+1.09} \) Pg C yr^?1 depending on the assumed function of lakes. Thus, the considered lake function has a large effect on the calculated lateral DIC export from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters. We conclude that more robust estimates of CO₂ sinks and sources will require the classification of lakes into their predominant function. This functional lake classification concept becomes particularly important for the estimation of future CO₂ sinks and sources, since in-lake carbon transformation is predicted to be altered with climate change.     

A decision tree approach modelling functional group abundance in a pasture ecosystem

Decision tree, one of the data mining approaches, was used to model the relative abundance of five functional groups of plant species, namely high fertility response grasses (HFRG), low fertility tolerance grasses (LFTG), legume, moss and flatweeds in a New Zealand hill-pasture ecosystem using aboveground biomass. The model outputs were integrated with a geographic information system (GIS) to map and validate the predictions on a pasture. The decision tree models clearly revealed the interactions between the functional groups and environmental and management factors, and also indicated the relative importance of these factors in influencing the functional group abundance. Soil Olsen P was the most significant factor influencing the abundance of LFTG and moss, while soil bulk density, slope and annual P fertiliser input were the most significant factors influencing the abundance of legume, HFRG and flatweeds, respectively. Generally, slope and soil Olsen P were the two key factors underlying the patterns of abundance for these five functional groups. For the five functional groups studied, there was an overall predictive accuracy of 75%. Modelling functional group abundance simplified the investigation of the complex interrelationship between species and environment in a pasture ecosystem. The integration of the decision tree with GIS in this study provides a platform to investigate community structure and functional composition for a pasture over space, and thus can be applied as a tool in pasture management.     

Some Lessons Learned from Public Health on the Process of Adaptation

Lessons learned from more than 150 years of public health research and intervention can provide insights to guide public health professionals and institutions as they design and implement specific strategies, policies, and measures to increase resilience to climate variability and change. This paper identifies both some modifications to public health systems that may enhance adaptive capacity, and lessons drawn from the history of managing environmental and other threats in the public health sector that may have relevance for other sectors as they design approaches to increase their adaptive capacity to more effectively cope with climate variability and change. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not represent official US EPA policy.