State-specific detection probabilities and disease prevalence.

Investigations of disease dynamics in wild animal populations often use estimated prevalence or incidence as a measure of true disease frequency. Such indices, almost always based solely on raw counts of infected and uninfected individuals, are often used as the basis for analysis of temporal and spatial dynamics of diseases. Generally, such studies do not account for potential differences in observer detection probabilities of host individuals stratified by biotic and/or abiotic factors. We demonstrate the potential effects of heterogeneity in state-specific detection probabilities on estimated disease prevalence using mark-recapture data from previous work in a House Finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) and Mycoplasma gallisepticum system. In this system, detection probabilities of uninfected finches were generally higher than infected individuals. We show that the magnitude and seasonal pattern of variation in estimated prevalence, corrected for differences in detection probabilities, differed markedly from uncorrected (apparent) prevalence. When the detection probability of uninfected individuals is higher than infected individuals (as in our study), apparent prevalence is negatively biased, and vice versa. In situations where state-specific detection probabilities strongly interact over time, we show that the magnitude and pattern of apparent prevalence can change dramatically; in such cases, observed variations in prevalence may be completely spurious artifacts of variation in detection probability, rather than changes in underlying disease dynamics. Accounting for differential detection probabilities in estimates of disease frequency removes a potentially confounding factor in studies seeking to identify biotic and/or abiotic drivers of disease dynamics. Given that detection probabilities of different groups of individuals are likely to change temporally and spatially in most field studies, our results underscore the importance of estimating and incorporating detection probabilities in estimated disease prevalence (specifically), and more generally, any ecological index used to estimate some parameter of interest. While a mark-recapture approach makes it possible to estimate detection probabilities, it is not always practical, especially at large scales. We discuss several alternative approaches and categorize the assumptions under which analysis of uncorrected prevalence may be acceptable.     

Schadstoffbelastung durch Persorption von Bodenpartikeln

The term persorption describes the paracellular uptake of particles from the digestive tract. It has been shown that solid, hard microparticles such as starch granules, cellulose particles, fibres and crystals are incorporated from the digestive tract. It is likely that an uptake of soil contaminants may also occur via this mechanism, thereby increasing the health risks of children through soil ingestion. The aim of this study was to evaluate the significance of such soil contaminant absorption via this mechanism using data from the literature. Since no information was available on the persorption of soil particles, studies using other models had to be evaluated. The results of these studies show that a persorption of soil particles must be expected. The maximum persorption rate occurs for diameters of <35 μm which is in the range of diameters of street dust, clay and coarse clay. The persorption of these particles is therefore of significance. Data from the literature, however, does not allow an estimation of the magnitude of persorption of such soil particles. Basically, it is conceivable that a relevant ingestion of less mobile pollutants is possible through their persorption in the gastrointestinal tract. Aside from an increased internal exposure via the persorption of soil particles carrying contaminants, additional health risks may occur through the long-term deposit of such particles, the presence of potential allergens as well as through the embolisation of small vessels.     

Nicht reproduzierbar: Versuchsergebnisse zur synergistischen Wirkung von Xeno?strogenen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Relating meteorological variables and trends in motor vehicle emissions to monthly urban carbon monoxide concentrations

A model which quantifies the relationship between the monthly time series for CO emissions, the monthly time series in ambient CO concentration, and meteorologically driven dispersion was developed. Fifteen cities representing a wide range of geographical and climatic conditions were selected. An eight-year time series (1984–1991 inclusive) of monthly averaged data were examined in each city. A new method of handling missing ambient concentration values which is designed to calculate city-wide average concentrations that follow the trend seen at individual monitor sites is presented. This method is general and can be used in other applications involving missing data. The model uses emissions estimates along with two meteorological variables (wind speed and mixing height) to estimate monthly averages of ambient air pollution concentrations. The model is shown to have a wide range of applicability; it works equally well for a wide range of cities that have very different temporal CO distributions. The model is suited for assessing long-term trends in ambient air pollutants and can also be used for estimating seasonal variations in concentration, estimation of trends in emissions, and for filling in gaps in the ambient concentration record.     

Application of an improved method for the analysis of pesticides and their metabolites in the urine of farmer applicators and their families

As the annual use of pesticides in the United States has escalated, public health agencies have become increasingly concerned about chronic pesticide exposure. However, without reliable, accurate analytical methods for biological monitoring, low-level chronic exposures are often difficult to assess. A method for measuring simultaneously the urinary residues of as many as 20 pesticides has been significantly improved. The method uses a sample preparation which includes enzyme digestion, extraction, and chemical derivatization of the analytes. The derivatized analytes are measured by using gas chromatography coupled with isotope-dilution tandem mass spectrometry. The limits of detection of the modified method are in the high pg/L - low μg/L range, and the average coefficient of variation (CV) of the method was below 20% for most analytes, with approximately 100% accuracy in quantification. This method was used to measure the internal doses of pesticides among selected farmer applicators and their families. Definite exposure and elimination patterns (i.e., an increase in urinary analyte levels following application and then a gradual decrease to background levels) were observed among the farmer applicators and many of the family members whose crops were treated with carbaryl, dicamba, and 2,4-D esters and amines. Although the spouses of farm workers sometimes exhibited the same elimination pattern, the levels of the targeted pesticides or metabolites found in their urine were not outside the ranges found in the general U.S. population (reference range). The farmer applicators who applied the pesticides and some of their children appeared to have higher pesticide or metabolite levels in their urine than those found in the general U.S. population, but their levels were generally comparable to or lower than reported levels in other occupationally exposed individuals. These results, however, were obtained from a nonrandom sampling of farm residents specifically targeted to particular exposures who may have altered their practices because they were being observed; therefore, further study is required to determine if these results are representative of pesticide levels among residents on all farms where these pesticides are applied using the same application techniques. Using this method to measure exposure in a small nonrandom farm population allowed differentiation between overt and background exposure. In addition, the important role of reference-range information in distinguishing between various levels of environmental exposure was reaffirmed.     

Female oviposition-site preference and egg hatching success in the damselfly Calopteryx splendens xanthostoma

By removing males and controlling the rate of water flow past oviposition patches in an experimental area, we showed that female Calopteryx splendens xanthostoma preferred to oviposit in fast flowing water rather than slow flowing water. A series of manipulations revealed the fitness benefits to females for this preference: eggs placed in fast-flowing water developed significantly faster and showed significantly lower mortality than eggs placed in slow-flowing water. A major factor determining this difference was the deposition and growth of encrusting algae which prevented the successful hatching of eggs in slow-flowing water.