A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Recycling of petroleum-contaminated sand

The environmental impact of using petroleum-contaminated sand (PCS) as a substitute in asphalt paving mixtures was examined. An appreciable component of PCS is oily sludge, which is found as the dregs in oil storage tanks and is also produced as a result of oil spills on clean sand. The current method for the disposal of oily sludge is land farming. However, this method has not been successful as an oil content of < 1% w/w is required, and difficulty was encountered in reaching this target. The reuse of the sludge in asphalt paving mixtures was therefore considered as an alternative. Standard tests and environmental studies were conducted to establish the integrity of the materials containing the recycled sludge. These included physical and chemical characterization of the sludge itself, and an assessment of the mechanical properties of materials containing 0%, 5%, 22% and 50% oily sludge. The blended mixtures were subjected to special tests, such as Marshall testing and the determination of stability and flow properties. The experimental results indicated that mixtures containing up to 22% oily sludge could meet the necessary criteria for a specific asphalt concrete wearing course or bituminous base course. To maximize the assay from the recycled material, the environmental assessment was restricted to the 50% oily sludge mixture. Leachates associated with this particular mixture were assayed for total organic residue and certain hazardous metal contaminants. The results revealed that the organics were negligible, and the concentrations of the metals were not significant. Thus, no adverse environmental impact should be anticipated from the use of the recycled product. Our research showed that the disposal of oily sludge in asphalt paving mixtures could possibly yield considerable savings per tonne of asphalt concrete, and concurrently minimize any direct impact on the environment.     

Concentration and Distribution of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in Harbour Dredging Sediments: A Pilot Study Using a Statistical Approach for a More Efficient Characterisation and Management

The Italian guidelines concerning the dumping of dredgingmaterials implies chemical, physical and microbiologicalcharacterisation of dumping sediments collected through aspecific sampling strategy.POP's such as PCB's and organochlorine pesticides, areconsidered as priority pollutants in all the InternationalConventions for the protection of the marine environment, inconsequence of their persistence, toxicity and bioaccumulation capacity.In the present article the concentrations and distribution ofPCB's and organochlorine pesticides in dredging sediments ofPiombino harbour (northern Thyrrenian sea) were investigates.The results showed high POP's concentrations in all the studiedareas. The maximum values were: 3.94 mg kg^-1 dry weight for PCB's(IUPAC Nos. 28; 52; 101, 118; 137; 153; 180; 209); 2.04 mg kg^-1 d.w.for HCH's (-, -, - and -hexachlorocyclohexane isomers); 0.28 mg kg^-1 d.w. for DD's (DDT + DDE + DDD).Subsequently, the data related to each pollutant were treatedwith statistical tests, in order to verify how well the samplingstrategy is able to represent the distribution of contaminantsin the dredging area. Finally, management strategies werederived for the studied dredging sediments.     

Cumulative impact assessment in environmental planning: A coastal wetland watershed example

Several theoretical, analytical, and institutional difficulties have impeded the development and application of the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts. Watershed development on coastal wetlands offers an ideal context for evaluating the land disturbance target approach to cumulative impact assessment. A model land use planning system involving a time series approach was developed for Elkhorn Slough in California. The approach included four major components: evaluation of erosion susceptibility, measurement of land disturbance, establishment of a land disturbance target, and a comparison of existing and target land disturbance values. Further research is needed to test the transferability of the approach in a wide range of coastal watersheds and to verify the applicability of the methods to other cumulative impact problems.     

Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Plant Phenology in Western Canada: Trends and Links to the View From Space

One feature of climate change is the trends to earlier spring onset in many north temperate areas of the world. The timing of spring flowering and leafing of perennial plants is largely controlled by temperature accumulation; both temperature and phenological records illustrate changes in recent decades. Phenology studies date back over a century, with extensive databases existing for western Canada. Earlier spring flowering has been noted for many woody plants, with larger trends seen for species that develop at spring's start. Implications for ecosystems of trends to earlier spring arrival include changes in plant species composition, changes in timing and distribution of pests and disease, and potentially disrupted ecological interactions. While Alberta has extensive phenology databases (for species, years, and geographic coverage) for recent decades, these data cannot provide continuous ground coverage. There is great potential for phenological data to provide ground validation for satellite imagery interpretation, especially as new remote sensors are becoming available. Phenological networks are experiencing a resurgence of interest in Canada (www.plantwatch.ca) and globally, and linking these ground-based observations with the view from space will greatly enhance our capacity to track the biotic response to climate changes.     

Mercury and trace elements in cloud water and precipitation collected on Mt. Mansfield,Vermont

The lack of high quality measurements of Hg and trace elements in cloud and fog water led to the design of a new collector for clean sequential sampling of cloud and fog water. Cloud water was collected during nine non-precipitating cloud events on Mt. Mansfield, VT in the northeastern USA between August 1 and October 31, 1998. Sequential samples were collected during six of these events. Mercury cloud water concentrations ranged from 7.5 to 71.8 ng l(-1), with a mean of 24.8 ng l(-1). Liquid water content explained about 60% of the variability in Hg cloud concentrations. Highest Hg cloud water concentrations were found to be associated with transport from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley, and lowest concentrations with transport from the north of Mt. Mansfield out of Canada. Twenty-nine event precipitation samples were collected during the ten-week cloud sampling period near the base of Mt. Mansfield as part of a long-term deposition study. The Hg concentrations of cloud water were similar to, but higher on average (median of 12.5 ng l(-1)) than Hg precipitation concentrations (median of 10.5 ng l(-1)). Cloud and precipitation samples were analyzed for fifteen trace elements including Mg, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb by ICP-MS. Mean concentrations were higher in cloud water than precipitation for elements with predominately anthropogenic, but not crustal origin in samples from the same source region. One possible explanation is greater in-cloud scavenging of crustal elements in precipitating than non-precipitating clouds, and greater below-cloud scavenging of crustal than anthropogenic aerosols.     

Atmospheric deposition of silver and thallium since 12 370 14C years BP recorded by a Swiss peat bog profile, and comparison with lead and cadmium

A peat core from an ombrotrophic bog in Switzerland provides the first complete, long-term record (14 500 years) of atmospheric Ag and Tl deposition. The lack of enrichment of Ag and Tl in the basal peat layer shows that mineral dissolution in the underlying sediments has not contributed measurably to the Ag and Tl inventories in the peat column, and that Ag and Tl were supplied exclusively by atmospheric deposition. The temporal and spatial distribution of modern peaks in Ag and Tl concentrations are similar to those of Pb which is known to be immobile in peat profiles. Silver and Tl, therefore, are effectively immobile in the peat bog also, allowing an atmospheric deposition chronology to be reconstructed. Silver concentrations vary by up to 114x and Tl up to 241x. While Holocene climate change and land use history can explain the variation in metal concentrations and enrichment factors (EF) in ancient peats (i.e. pre-dating the Roman Period), anthropogenic sources have to be invoked to explain the very high EF values (up to 123 in the case of Ag and 12 in the case of Tl) in peat samples since the middle of the 19th Century. The "natural background" EF of Tl in ancient peats is remarkably close to unity, indicating a lack of significant enrichment of this element in atmospheric aerosols due to chemical weathering of crustal rocks. Silver, on the other hand, shows a pronounced enrichment from 8030 to 5230 (14)C years BP (12x compared to crustal rocks); this may be due to weathering phenomena or biological processes, both of which are driven by climate. Even compared to the natural enrichment of Ag during the mid-Holocene, however, the enrichments of Ag and Tl in modern peats from the Industrial Period are at least an order of magnitude greater. The Pb/Ag and Tl/Ag ratios show that Pb and Tl are preferentially released, compared to Ag, during smelting of argentiferous Pb ores mined during the Roman and Medieval Periods.     

Optimal and suboptimal control of anaerobic digesters

Anaerobic digester failure due to entry of inhibitors or sudden changes in the feed substrate concentration may be encompassed beneficially by applying optimal control theory. An almost proportional relationship between the dilution rate and the methane production rate leads to a simple suboptimal control law with only minor loss in performance, after the occurrence of the above mentioned events.