THE ARMA MODELS APPLIED TO THE FLOW OF KARSTIC SPRINGS1

ABSTRACT: Autoregressive moving average (ABMA) models have been applied to study the flow series of the karstic springs of La Villa, Fuente Mayor (Spain), and Aliou (France). The theoretical meaning of the parameters involved in the model upon applying it to a simplified scheme of the emptying of a karstic aquifer is first analyzed. The types of transformations necessary to apply these models to the flow series that lack normality and have strong periodic components are also indicated, as are the advantages of this type of model and the physical significance of the parameters obtained, with respect to the standpoint of hydraulics, ranging from rather homogeneous aquifers (La Villa) to extremely karstic (Aliou), including aquifers with intermediate characteristics (Fuente Mayor).     

The effect of an ergonomic intervention on musculoskeletal, psychosocial, and visual strain of VDT data entry work: the Polish part of the international study.

A group of routine data entry operators (female) was included in the Polish MEPS (musculoskeletal--eyestrain--psychosocial--stress) study. Before the intervention, ergonomic assessment revealed improper working conditions such as inadequate lighting, uncomfortable chairs, and lack of forearm and wrist support while medical examination revealed that trapezius muscle load along with upper arm, head and back angles were higher than advisable. Subjects complained about neck and shoulder pain, visual problems, and psychosocial conditions. The ergonomic intervention included installation of new luminaires and Venetian blinds, new chairs, repair of ventilators, and optometric corrections. The results after the intervention showed mainly improvement in chair comfort, lighting conditions, visual strain, and sitting posture. However, financial limitations did not allow satisfactory completion of the intervention leading to a mixed interpretation of the results.     

A cross-country comparison of short- and long-term effects of an ergonomic intervention on musculoskeletal discomfort, eyestrain and psychosocial stress in VDT operators: selected aspects of the international project.

Three groups of data entry female visual display terminal (VDT) workers from Norway (n = 30), Poland (n = 33) and the USA (n = 29) were compared. Before intervention, the Norwegian group reported more neck pain compared with the Polish group. The Polish group reported less shoulder pain than both the U.S. and the Norwegian groups. The clinical examination documented fewer symptoms and signs of musculoskeletal illness among the Polish participants compared with the Norwegian and the U.S. groups. After intervention, the Norwegian group reported a reduction in neck pain while the U.S. group reported a reduction in shoulder pain. The Polish group reported an increase in neck, shoulder and forearm pain at follow-up compared to after intervention. The Polish group recorded higher flexion of the upper arm at follow-up parallel with an increase of pain in the upper part of the body. Visual discomfort showed variable results in the 3 countries.     

PREDICTING FECAL COLIFORM BACTERIA LEVELS IN THE CHARLES RIVER,MASSACHUSETTS, USA1

In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river's health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R²s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs.     

On measuring wealth: a case study on the state of Queensland

In order for policy makers to plan effectively for sustainable development, there is a need for measures of welfare that consider changes in the natural capital stock. Current measures based on conventional national accounting are flawed because they are based solely on flow measures and do not account for environmental effects. In this paper, we use an expanded measure of wealth to estimate the value of natural capital for Queensland. The state's stock of natural capital is valued at A dollar 355.6 billion, of which non-timber forest resources account for 45.3%, ecosystem services 20.0%, and mineral resources 17.6%. This figure is a conservative estimate of the true value since some significant components such as the ecological and life-support functions of the environment are excluded. The estimates highlight the relative importance of different forms of natural capital and can be used to draw the attention of policymakers to the need to give adequate weight to the value of such services in decision-making processes.     

Phytoplankton and water quality in a Mediterranean drinking-water reservoir (Marathonas Reservoir, Greece)

Phytoplankton and water quality of Marathonas drinking-water Reservoir were examined for the first time. During the study period (July-September 2007), phytoplankton composition was indicative of eutrophic conditions although phytoplankton biovolume was low (max. 2.7 mm3 l?1). Phytoplankton was dominated by cyanobacteria and diatoms, whereas desmids and dinoflagellates contributed with lower biovolume values. Changing flushing rate in the reservoir (up to 0.7% of reservoir's water volume per day) driven by water withdrawal and occurring in pulses for a period of 15-25 days was associated with phytoplankton dynamics. Under flushing pulses: (1) biovolume was low and (2) both 'good' quality species and the tolerant to flushing 'nuisance' cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa dominated. According to the Water Framework Directive, the metrics of phytoplankton biovolume and cyanobacterial percentage (%) contribution indicated a moderate ecological water quality. In addition, the total biovolume of cyanobacteria as well as the dominance of the known toxin-producing M. aeruginosa in the reservoir's phytoplankton indicated a potential hazard for human health according to the World Health Organization.     

Trace Organic Matter in the Ria Formosa,Portugal

The Ria Formosa lagoon, Portugal, receives organic matter from many natural and anthropogenic sources. This paper presents an overview of the contribution these sources made through the use of lipid biomarkers. Sixty-one surface sediment samples were collected and analysed for a range of lipids. Sewage materials were confined to regions within 2 km of discharge points; phytoplankton biomarkers (sterols and fatty acids) suggest production was greatest in the inner parts of the lagoon that also have greatest inorganic nutrient enrichment; terrestrial organic matter was present in relatively low concentrations as shown by both sterol and fatty alcohols; bacteria were widespread although the Sulphate Reducing Bacteria (SRBs, shown by the presence of 3-OH fatty acids) were located near but not adjacent to sewage discharge points.     

LC-MS/MS determination of pesticide residues in fruits and vegetables

The aim of the research is to evaluate pesticide residue contamination of fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables, agricultural raw material, purchased from Polish farmers for production of frozen fruits and vegetables, and the estimation of the multiresidue method effectiveness expressed as the proportion of pesticides detected in food samples to the total number of pesticides analyzed by multiresidue methods. A total of 144 samples (of black currants, red currants, raspberries, cherries, strawberries, blackberries, cauliflowers and broccoli) were analyzed using LC-MS/MS method for the determination of 60 pesticides. QuEChERS extraction, matrix-matched calibration and dynamic multiple reaction monitoring method were used. Residues of 15 compounds, mainly fungicides and insecticides, were detected in 46 samples. The percentage of samples with residues above the maximum residue levels (MRL) was 15%, whereas samples with residues below MRL were 17%. A total of 13 samples contained more than one pesticide residue. Pesticide residues were detected most often in samples of black currants (50%), broccoli (36.4%), raspberries (29%) and red currants (21.8%). The most frequently detected pesticides were carbendazim and acetamiprid. The proportion of pesticides detected during our study to the total number of analyzed pesticides amounted to 25%. It was compared to literature findings. For three fourth of multiresidue methods, the proportion was below 50% for methods developed for the analysis of less than 100 pesticides, and below 30% for methods developed for the analysis of more than 100 pesticides. It appears that a lot of efforts and means is lost on pesticides never or rarely detected in examined samples. The workload and cost effectiveness of the development and application of multiresidue methods along with the range of pesticides covered by the method should be carefully and thoroughly considered anytime when a new method or workflow is developed. Including non-targeted screenings in pesticide residue control seems to be an alternative worth considering.     

Estimation of uncertainty arising from different soil sampling devices: the use of variogram parameters

In the frame of the international SOILSAMP project, funded and coordinated by the National Environmental Protection Agency of Italy (APAT), uncertainties due to field soil sampling were assessed. Three different sampling devices were applied in an agricultural area using the same sampling protocol. Cr, Sc and Zn mass fractions in the collected soil samples were measured by k(0)-instrumental neutron activation analysis (k(0)-INAA). For each element-device combination the experimental variograms were calculated using geostatistical tools. The variogram parameters were used to estimate the standard uncertainty arising from sampling. The sampling component represents the dominant contribution of the measurement uncertainty with a sampling uncertainty to measurement uncertainty ratio ranging between 0.6 and 0.9. The approach based on the use of variogram parameters leads to uncertainty values of the sampling component in agreement with those estimated by replicate sampling approach.