Urban Flood Damage and Greenhouse Scenarios - The Implications for Policy: An Example from Australia

Urban flooding is often used as an illustration of the potentially adverse effects of greenhouse-induced climate change on extreme events. There is however, a paucity of studies that convert climate scenarios into changes in flood damage. This account summarises the use of modelling techniques, for three flood prone urban catchments in south eastern Australia, to assess changes to urban flood losses for the 'most wet' and 'most dry' scenarios for the year 2070. The most wet scenario indicates that annual average flood damage could increase within the range of 2.5 to 10 times, under the most dry scenario flood regimes would be similar to those experienced at present. The socio-economic scenarios based on the changes to flood losses are used to consider policy responses. It is unlikely that many local government authorities will respond because of lack of interest and because of major changes to the climate scenarios proposed over the last decade. Any response is likely to be incremental and accord with the 'no regrets' and the precautionary principle'.     

Latest precambrian (Cadomian) zircon ages, Nd isotopic systematics and P-T evolution of granitoid orthogneisses of the Erzgebirge, Saxony and Czech Republic

Single zircons from two orthogneiss complexes, the Grey Gneiss and Red Gneiss, the lowermost tectonic units in the Erzgebirge, were dated. The grey Freiberg Gneiss is of igneous origin and has a ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb emplacement age of 550±7 Ma. A quartz monzonite from Lauenstein contains idiomorphic zircons with a mean ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of 555±7 Ma as well as xenocrysts ranging in age between 850 and 1910 Ma. Red gneisses from the central Erzgebirge contain complex zircon populations, including numerous xenocrysts up to 2464 Ma in age. The youngest, idiomorphic, zircons in all samples yielded uniform ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages between 550±9 and 554±10 Ma. Nd isotopic data support the interpretation of crustal anatexis for the origin of both units. _Nd(t) values for the grey gneisses are –7.5 and –6.0 respectively, (mean crustal residence ages of 1.7–1.8 Ga). The red gneisses have a wider range in _Nd(t) values from –7.7 to –2.8 (T _DM ages of 1.4–1.8 Ga). The zircon ages document a distinct late Proterozoic phase of granitoid magmatism, similar in age to granitoids in the Lusatian block farther north-east. However, Palaeozoic deformation as well as medium pressure metamorphism ( 8 kbar/600–650° C) are identical in both gneiss units and distinguish these rocks from the Lusatian granitoids. The grey and red gneisses were overthrust by units with abundant high-pressure relicts and a contrasting P-T evolution. Zircon xenocryst and Nd model ages in the range 1000–1700 Ma are similar to those in granitoid rocks of Lusatia and the West-Sudetes, and document a pre-Cadomian basement in parts of east-central Europe that, chronologically, has similarities with the Sveconorwegian domain in the Baltic Shield.     

Attitudes to prenatal screening,diagnosis and research among pregnant women who accept or decline an alpha-fetoprotein test

The aim of the study was to describe the opinion of pregnant women who had accepted or declined an alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) test, not only on AFP screening in general, but also on whether every pregnant woman should be offered amniocentesis (AC)/chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and an ultrasound scan for fetal malformations. An additional aim was to describe pregnant women's attitudes concerning continued research in the prenatal field. The study was performed as a questionnaire study in two regions over a 1-year period from 1 October 1988 to 30 September 1989. Results are based on answers from 3331 women who had taken an AFP test and 336 women who had declined the offer of a test. A total of 79 per cent of the women thought that an AFP test, 70 per cent that an ultrasound scan for fetal malformations, and 26 per cent that AC or CVS should be offered to all pregnant women. Fifty-nine per cent of the women were positive towards continued research in the prenatal field. Women who had had an AFP test were generally much more positive towards screening and research than women who had declined, who were generally against. Women who had left school without a high school degree were on average more positive towards the screening issues than women who had this degree. In conclusion, the results obtained in this study strongly suggest that women's attitudes are very dependent on how the prenatal screening programme is already organized in their local area.     

Adverse outcome in pregnancy following amniotic fluid isolation of Ureaplasma urealyticum

Infections in pregnancy with Ureaplasma urealyticum have been associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes, such as early abortion, stillbirth, prematurity, and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Causality has been difficult to demonstrate secondary to the high prevalence of asymptomatic lower genital tract (LGT) colonization and culture data from inaccessible or potentially contaminated sites. Between 1985 and 1989, 2461 second-trimester genetic amniocenteses were evaluated at the cytogenetics section of the Children's Hospital Medical Center of Akron. All were cultured for the genital mycoplasmas: Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma urealyticum. A total of nine patients were positive, all for Ureaplasma urealyticum, with one patient excluded because of subsequent therapeutic abortion. In addition, complete follow-up data, such as indication for amniocentesis, serum alpha-fetoprotein levels, gestational age at parturition, and out- come of pregnancy, were available on 86 Ureaplasma-negative (U –) patients during an approximate 2-year span within the time-frame of the study. This was in part due to physician response to a questionnaire sent after amniocentesis. Of the eight positive cultures, 100 per cent were associated with an adverse outcome, defined as fetal loss or premature delivery. This was significant compared with the U–group (p<0.001) with a more than eight times greater risk of adverse outcome. Six (75 per cent) resulted in spontaneous miscarriage within 4 weeks of amniocentesis and at less than 21 weeks' gestation. Two (25 per cent) delivered prematurely, with one (12.5 per cent) neonatal death at 24+ weeks. Histological examination of all eight placentae and the seven fetuses revealed a 100 per cent incidence of chorioamnionitis and pneumonia, respectively. In addition, in four of the five cases (80 per cent), cultures were positive for Ureaplasma urealyticum in pure culture from either placenta, fetal lung, or both tissues. The remaining case (20 per cent) was negative for aerobes, anaerobes, and mycoplasmas. The study demonstrates a significant association and supports a causal relationship between isolation of Ureaplasma from mid-trimester amniotic fluid with fetal wastage and premature birth.