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61.
April E. Reside Ian Watson Jeremy VanDerWal Alex S. Kutt 《Ecological modelling》2011,222(18):3444-3448
Developing robust species distribution models is important as model outputs are increasingly being incorporated into conservation policy and management decisions. A largely overlooked component of model assessment and refinement is whether to include historic species occurrence data in distribution models to increase the data sample size. Data of different temporal provenance often differ in spatial accuracy and precision. We test the effect of inclusion of historic coarse-resolution occurrence data on distribution model outputs for 187 species of birds in Australian tropical savannas. Models using only recent (after 1990), fine-resolution data had significantly higher model performance scores measured with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than models incorporating both fine- and coarse-resolution data. The drop in AUC score is positively correlated with the total area predicted to be suitable for the species (R2 = 0.163-0.187, depending on the environmental predictors in the model), as coarser data generally leads to greater predicted areas. The remaining unexplained variation is likely to be due to the covariate errors resulting from resolution mismatch between species records and environmental predictors. We conclude that decisions regarding data use in species distribution models must be conscious of the variation in predictions that mixed-scale datasets might cause. 相似文献
62.
63.
Villy Christensen Carl J. Walters Robert Ahrens Jacqueline Alder Joe Buszowski Line Bang Christensen William W.L. Cheung John Dunne Rainer Froese Vasiliki Karpouzi Kristin Kaschner Kelly Kearney Sherman Lai Vicki Lam Maria L.D. Palomares Aja Peters-Mason Chiara Piroddi Jorge L. Sarmiento Jeroen Steenbeek Rashid Sumaila Reg Watson Dirk Zeller Daniel Pauly 《Ecological modelling》2009
We present a new methodology for database-driven ecosystem model generation and apply the methodology to the world's 66 currently defined Large Marine Ecosystems. The method relies on a large number of spatial and temporal databases, including FishBase, SeaLifeBase, as well as several other databases developed notably as part of the Sea Around Us project. The models are formulated using the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling approach and software. We tune the models by fitting to available time series data, but recognize that the models represent only a first-generation of database-driven ecosystem models. We use the models to obtain a first estimate of fish biomass in the world's LMEs. The biggest hurdles at present to further model development and validation are insufficient time series trend information, and data on spatial fishing effort. 相似文献
64.
The annual epidemic spawning period of a Scottish population of Arenicola marina (L.) has been recorded over a period of 13 yr. This population spawns between mid-October and mid-November in a discrete
spawning event over a period of 4 to 5 d. Endocrine manipulation experiments showed that spawning is induced in females only
if sufficient titres of PMH (prostomial maturation hormone) are present in the prostomia. These levels are attained during
the 2 to 3 wk prior to the natural spawning date. The East Sands, St. Andrews population always spawns during periods of spring
tides regardless of tidal amplitude or whether they are full- or new-moon tides. Meteorological data, including sea-temperature
data were collected for each year, and correlation of the environmental data with spawning time was attempted. Correlation
of spawning times with weather patterns showed that mean daily air pressures were significantly higher during the spawning
period than from September to November as a whole. Evidence also suggests that a reduction in sea temperature is required
prior to spawning. A significant moderate negative correlation was found between May to July air temperatures and spawning
date, suggesting that higher May to July temperatures may induce early spawning. Daily rainfall and wind speed were also lower
during the spawning period, but not significantly so. These results indicate that air pressure (or changes therein) may act
as a final spawning cue, and the advantages of this are discussed in relation to fertilization success. A model of the interplay
between environmental parameters and the endocrine mechanisms controlling the induction of spawning is proposed. Higher than
average summer temperatures may advance gametogenesis to bring the population into a state of maturity (full-size oocytes,
well-developed sperm morulae), and may also advance spawning time. Once the population has completed gametogenesis, a drop
in sea temperature is then required to trigger an increase in endocrine titres within the prostomium, without which spawning
cannot be induced by prostomial injection. The population spawns on spring tides; however a lack of clement weather coinciding
with the spring tide will result in population-wide spawning being aborted, as in 1996. Clement weather (high pressure, low
rainfall and wind speed) in conjunction with spring tides permits spawning to proceed to completion.
Received: 21 June 1999 / Accepted: 25 January 2000 相似文献
65.
Visibility: science and regulation 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
66.
Source contributions to PM10 and sulfate aerosol at McMurdo Station, Antarctica during the austral summers of 1995-1996 and 1996-1997 were estimated using Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) receptor modeling. The average PM10 (particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 microm) concentration at Hut Point, located less than 1 km downwind of downtown McMurdo, was 3.4 microg/m3. Emissions profiles were determined for potentially important aerosol source types in McMurdo: exposed soil, power generation, space heating, and surface vehicles. Soil dust, sea salt, combustion emissions, sulfates, marine biogenic emissions as methanesulfonate, and nitrates contributed 57%, 15%, 14%, 10%, 3%, and 1%, respectively, of average estimated PM10 at Hut Point (3.2 microg/m3). Soil dust, sea salt, and combustion sources contributed 12%, 8%, and 20%, respectively, of the average PM10 sulfate concentration of 0.46 microg/m3. Marine biogenic sources contributed 0.17 microg/m3 (37%). The remaining sulfate is thought to have come from emissions from Mt. Erebus or hemispheric pollution sources. 相似文献
67.
Dr. Jane L. Halliday Lyndsey F. Watson Judith Lumley David M. Danks Leslie J. Sheffield 《黑龙江环境通报》1995,15(5):455-465
Current measures of livebirth prevalence of Down syndrome are derived from data obtained up to 20 years ago, before the introduction of the prenatal diagnostic tests amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling (CVS). For women aged 36–52 years, but who were not tested prenatally, we proposed to make a direct estimate of current livebirth prevalence of Down syndrome. We could also determine prevalence at the time of CVS and amniocentesis in women of the same age undergoing prenatal testing. Differences in these prevalences allow an estimation of the relative loss of Down syndrome during pregnancy. In Victoria, Australia, we identified 3041 women having CVS, 7504 having amniocentesis, and 13 139 having no test. Smoothed regression estimates of age-specific livebirth prevalence were found to be higher than in the early studies. The estimate of spontaneous loss was 17 per cent between the time of CVS and amniocentesis, and 18 per cent after the time of amniocentesis. The latter figure is lower than previous estimates and may be explained by a greater likelihood of a Down syndrome fetus surviving to be liveborn, given the modern approach to early obstetric intervention. These current risk estimates of livebirth may be useful updates for genetic counselling, but perhaps more importantly, may be used as precise maternal age-related risk figures, necessary in the design and implementation of prenatal screening programmes for Down syndrome. 相似文献
68.
Jason E Bruggeman Robert A Garrott Daniel D Bjornlie P J White Fred G R Watson John Borkowski 《Ecological applications》2006,16(4):1539-1554
The influence of winter recreation on wildlife in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Wyoming and Montana, USA, is a controversial issue. In particular, the effects of road grooming, done to facilitate snowmobile and snowcoach travel, on bison (Bison bison) ecology are under debate. We collected data during winters, from 1997 to 2005, on bison road use, off-road travel, and activity budgets to quantify temporal trends in the amount of bison road and off-road travel and to identify the ecological factors affecting bison movements and use of the groomed road system in the Madison-Gibbon-Firehole (MGF) area of YNP. Using model comparison techniques, we found bison travel patterns to be influenced by multiple, interacting effects. Road travel was negatively correlated with road grooming, and we found no evidence that bison preferentially used groomed roads during winter. Snow water equivalent, bison density, and the springtime melt period were positively correlated with both bison road and off-road travel. From behavioral scans on 68,791 bison, we found that travel is only a small percentage (11%) of all bison activity, with foraging comprising 67% of observations. Also, only 7% of traveling bison and 30% of foraging bison were displacing snow, and we suggest foraging, rather than traveling, is likely the major energetic cost to bison in winter. Bison utilize their own trail network, connecting foraging areas using stream corridors, geothermal pathways, and self-groomed travel routes. Our results indicate that temporal patterns in bison road travel are a manifestation of general travel behavior and that groomed roads in the MGF do not appear to be a major factor influencing bison ecology and spatial redistribution. We suggest that the changes in bison spatial dynamics during the past three decades have likely been the result of the natural phenomenon of density-dependent range expansion, rather than having been caused by the anthropogenic influence of road grooming. 相似文献
69.
Summary Glycosidase inhibitors are widespread in plants and can be sequestered by Lepidoptera, for which they can presumably serve as defences by making the insects indigestible to a range of potential predators. As a result of this study of eight British species of moth and butterfly it was found that glycosidase inhibitors in the insects could then be detected in the larval food plants which were not previously known to contain them; however, some were only detectable in the plants after concentration. In some cases the inhibition of specific glycosidases by Lepidoptera was detected even though the insects had not apparently acquired them from their food plants. Inhibition of-N-acetylglucosaminidase was observed in most of the adult Lepidoptera analysed but further work is required to identify the inhibitors, though they are likely to be nitrogen-containing compounds. Weak anti-HIV activity was also observed in the glycosidase-inhibiting fractions ofAcherontia atropos and the plantUrtica dioica. 相似文献
70.
Chow JC Watson JG Lowenthal DH Magliano KL 《Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)》2005,55(8):1158-1168
Evaporative loss of particulate matter (with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm, [PM2.5]) ammonium nitrate from quartz-fiber filters during aerosol sampling was evaluated from December 3, 1999, through February 3, 2001, at two urban (Fresno and Bakersfield) and three nonurban (Bethel Island, Sierra Nevada Foothills, and Angiola) sites in central California. Compared with total particulate nitrate, evaporative nitrate losses ranged from < 10% during cold months to > 80% during warm months. In agreement with theory, evaporative loss from quartz-fiber filters in nitric acid denuded samplers is controlled by the ambient nitric acid-to-particulate nitrate ratio, which is determined mainly by ambient temperature. Accurate estimation of nitrate volatilization requires a detailed thermodynamic model and comprehensive chemical measurements. For the 14-month average of PM2.5 acquired on Teflon-membrane filters, measured PM2.5 mass was 8-16% lower than actual PM2.5 mass owing to nitrate volatilization. For 24-hr samples, measured PM2.5 was as much as 32-44% lower than actual PM2.5 at three California Central Valley locations. 相似文献