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21.
Chris J. Matthews David B. Newton Roger D. Braddock Bofu Yu 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(1):27-41
Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The
New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects)
and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of
two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various
inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and
Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex
processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness
of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition
System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the
sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss
the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring
the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing
these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method
estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown
that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different
metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock. 相似文献
22.
Yáñez J Fierro V Mansilla H Figueroa L Cornejo L Barnes RM 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2005,7(12):1335-1341
The analysis for arsenic in hair is commonly used in epidemiological studies to assess exposure to this toxic element. However, poor correlation between total arsenic concentration in hair and water sources have been found in previous studies. Exclusive determination of endogenous arsenic in the hair, excluding external contamination has become an analytical challenge. Arsenic speciation in hair appears as a new possibility for analytical assessing in As-exposure studies. This study applied a relative simple method for arsenic speciation in human hair based on water extraction and HPLC-HG-ICP-MS. The concentration of arsenic species in human hair was assessed in chronically As(V)-exposed populations from two villages (Esqui?a and Illapata) of the Atacama Desert, Chile. The arsenic concentrations in drinking water are 0.075 and 1.25 mg L(-1), respectively, where As(V) represented between 92 and 99.5% of the total arsenic of the consumed waters. On average, the total arsenic concentrations in hair from individuals of Esqui?a and Illapata were 0.7 and 6.1 microg g(-1), respectively. Four arsenic species, As(III), DMA(V), MMA(V) and As(V), were detected and quantified in the hair extracts. Assuming the found species in extracts represent the species in hair, more than 98% of the total arsenic in hair corresponded to inorganic As. On average, As(III) concentrations in hair were 0.25 and 3.75 microg g(-1) in Esqui?a and Illapata, respectively; while, the As(V) average concentrations were 0.15 and 0.45 microg g(-1) in Esqui?a and Illapata, respectively. Methylated species represent less than 2% of the extracted As (DMA(V)+ MMA(V)) in both populations. As(III) in hair shows the best correlation with chronic exposure to As(V) in comparison to other species and total arsenic. In fact, concentrations of As(total), As(III) and As(V) in hair samples are correlated with the age of the exposed individuals from Illapata (R= 0.65, 0.69, 0.57, respectively) and with the time of residence in this village (R= 0.54, 0.71 and 0.58, respectively). 相似文献
23.
Charles S. Tapiero 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,9(4):201-206
Conclusion In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried. 相似文献
24.
Cariñanos P Sánchez-Mesa JA Prieto-Baena JC Lopez A Guerra F Moreno C Dominguez E Galan C 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2002,4(5):734-738
The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between the distribution of hay-fever patients in the city of Córdoba, south-western Iberian Peninsula, and the specific atmospheric biological content originating from local sources. Four different districts were established in the metropolitan area of the city, according to vegetational and urbanistic characteristics. Air samples were taken in each area using portable Hirst-type samplers (Lanzoni VPPS 1000) and the spectrum of biological content was defined. Patients attending the Allergy Unit at Córdoba Teaching Hospital in 2000 with allergic rhinitis and/or asthma, and displaying a positive reaction to aeroallergen extracts, were distributed within the areas as a function of their district of residence. Aerobiological results revealed differences in pollen content between areas, in terms of both quantity and number of pollen types recorded. These differences were largely due to proximity to rural areas, prevalence of pollen from typically urban species and the possible effect of urban architecture as a barrier to the dispersal/ concentration of particles and other pollutants. Patients were not uniformly distributed within the city. The majority lived in districts in which pollen from rural species was mixed with pollen from ornamentals. Patients living in typically urban districts displayed a higher prevalence of allergy to pollen from ornamentals. It is concluded that a high degree of exposure to the same environment may influence the development of sensitisation to the particular pollen load associated with that area. 相似文献
25.
Santamaría-Fernández R Moreda-Piñeiro A Hill SJ 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2002,4(2):330-336
The optimisation of a simple multielement extraction method employing an experimental design approach is described. The method uses centrifugation to pass one extractant solution at varying pH through a contaminated soil sample. The nature and concentration of the acid, rate of centrifugation and time, number of sequential leachates and the ratio of extractant volume: sample weight have been studied in order to obtain the optimum conditions for extraction. A fractional factorial experimental design was performed, and the results were used to identify significance which was then evaluated by carrying out a central composite experimental approach. Once optimum conditions had been obtained, sequential leaches were analysed by ICP-AES and chemometrics were employed to identify the composition of each component. Comparisons have been made with previous studies and tentative assignments, based on well defined separated fractions and percentage compositions for individual elements, used to identify the different physico-chemical components in the sample. 相似文献
26.
Fagundez LA Fernández VL Marino TH Martín I Persano DA Rivarola Y Benítez M Sadañiowski IV Codnia J Zalts A 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2001,71(1):61-70
Passive diffusion samplers were employed in San Miguel(Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area) for a preliminary airpollution monitoring. The highest loads were observedin downtown, compared with an urban background site.Total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) varied from0.257 to 0.033 mg cm-2 month-1; dust was examinedfor particle nature and size distribution. A similartrend was observed for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) andTSPM spatial distribution, suggesting that traffic isthe major pollution source. Sulphur dioxide (SO2)values were low and rather homogeneous. Levels for theinvestigated pollutants are below EPA's guide linevalues. Geographic (flat area, near to Rio de LaPlata) and climatologic factors (rainfalls andvariable wind directions) contribute to disperse pollutants. 相似文献
27.
Gustavo Ratto Fabián Videla J. Reyna Almandos Ricardo Maronna Daniel Schinca 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2006,121(1-3):325-340
This article presents and discusses SO2 (ppbv) concentration measurements combined with meteorological data (mainly wind speed and direction) for a five-year campaign (1996 to 2000), in a site near an oil refinery plant close to the city of La Plata and surroundings (aprox. 740.000 inh.), considered one of the six most affected cities by air pollution in the country. Since there is no monitoring network in the area, the obtained results should be considered as medium term accumulated data that enables to determine trends by analyzing together gas concentrations and meteorological parameters. Preliminary characterization of the behaviour of the predominant winds of the region in relation with potential atmospheric gas pollutants from seasonal wind roses is possible to carry out from the data. These results are complemented with monthly averaged SO2 measurements. In particular, for year 2000, pollutant roses were determined which enable predictions about contamination emission sources. As a general result we can state that there is a clear increase in annual SO2 concentration and that the selected site should be considered as a key site for future survey monitoring network deployment. Annual SO2 average concentration and prevailing seasonal winds determined in this work, together with the potential health impact of SO2 reveals the need for a comprehensive and systematic study involving particulate matter an other basic pollutant gases. 相似文献
28.
Gottfried Tappeiner Ulrike Tappeiner Janette Walde 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(4):253-256
The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline.
In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline
are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the
importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries
are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet
the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute
significantly to sustainable research. 相似文献
29.
A study on the orbit of air temperature movement 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Zong-Chang Yang 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(2):131-143
In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the
time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily
air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view,
air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for
the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly
air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements
in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful
model for air temperature analysis. 相似文献
30.
Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Y. B. Liu F. De Smedt L. Hoffmann L. Pfister 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,9(4):227-235
A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios. 相似文献