Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.     

Mitigation of methane emission from an old unlined landfill in Klintholm,Denmark using a passive biocover system

Methane generated at landfills contributes to global warming and can be mitigated by biocover systems relying on microbial methane oxidation. As part of a closure plan for an old unlined landfill without any gas management measures, an innovative biocover system was established. The system was designed based on a conceptual model of the gas emission patterns established through an initial baseline study. The study included construction of gas collection trenches along the slopes of the landfill where the majority of the methane emissions occurred. Local compost materials were tested as to their usefulness as bioactive methane oxidizing material and a suitable compost mixture was selected. Whole site methane emission quantifications based on combined tracer release and downwind measurements in combination with several local experimental activities (gas composition within biocover layers, flux chamber based emission measurements and logging of compost temperatures) proved that the biocover system had an average mitigation efficiency of approximately 80%. The study showed that the system also had a high efficiency during winter periods with temperatures below freezing. An economic analysis indicated that the mitigation costs of the biocover system were competitive to other existing greenhouse gas mitigation options.     

Fort McMurray and the Canadian Oil Sands: Local Coverage of National Importance

Understanding resource-based communities (RBCs) as potential casualties of Canada's economic proclivity towards resource extraction projects may help us to generate political support for these communities at both local and national scales. The media has a critical role to play in promoting the development of this type of political discourse. This study examines how traditional print media coverage affects Canadians' perceptions of the Athabasca oil sands. A quantitative media analysis examines scope and thematic content of articles appearing in major Canadian newspapers between 2003 and 2013. We find that most coverage concerning the Athabasca oil sands over this period appears predominantly in western Canadian newspapers, with coverage primarily focusing on specific events. We argue that this geographic disparity in coverage does not provide Canadians with the adequate coverage necessary to develop an informed opinion on what the implications of ongoing oil sands development are at both a local and a national scale.     

Metal ferrite incorporated polysulfone thin-film nanocomposite membranes for wastewater treatment

Effluents from food, fermentation, and sugar industries contain a large quantity of glucose which has to be removed to limit the chemical oxygen demand (COD) of the water discharged. This work proposes novel thin-film nanocomposite (TFN) membranes incorporated with MgFe₂O₄ and ZnFe₂O₄ nanoparticles to address this concern. The nanoparticles synthesized by the sol–gel method was extensively characterized and then incorporated into the active polyamide layer of the thin-film composite polysulfone membranes. The change in membrane morphology, wettability, chemical structure, and mechanical strength with the incorporation of nanoparticles was studied in detail. Membranes with 0.005 wt.% MgFe₂O₄ nanoparticle exhibited highest glucose rejection (96.52?±?2.35%) at 10 bar, 25 °C, and sufficiently high pure water flux (50.54?±?1.92 L/m²h). This membrane also displayed 69.1?±?5.12% salt rejection when challenged with 2000 ppm synthetic NaCl solution.

     

On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-020-01385-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Nonthermal GSM RF and ELF EMF effects upon rat BBB permeability

Since the late 1980s, our group has examined the effects of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF), including pulse-modulated waves of the type emitted by mobile phones, upon the blood?Cbrain barrier. In more than 2,000 rats, we have repeatedly demonstrated a passage of the rats?? own albumin from the blood through the brain capillaries into the surrounding brain parenchyma at SAR values down to 0.1mW/kg. In most of these experiments, the animals were exposed in TEM-cells, ventilated by an external electrical fan at 50 Hz. In the present study, we examined whether the extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic fields from the fan (50 Hz, 0.3?C1.5 ??T) might add to the RF effect. Sixty-four rats were divided into 4 groups: RF only, ELF only and RF + ELF exposure plus a sham group. The GSM-900 MHz RF exposure was at the very low, nonthermal, average whole-body SAR level 0.4 mW/kg. Demonstration of the normally occurring albumin extravasation in the basal hypothalamus is our inbuilt control proving that the staining is reliable. Two full series of staining of the whole material gave negative results for hypothalamus. Not until we changed to avidin, biotin, and antibodies from a third supplier, we received an acceptable staining. Twenty-five percent of the RF animals had a pathological albumin leakage, while the ELF and RF + ELF groups with three and two pathological findings, respectively, were not significantly different from the control group. We conclude that the use of external fans has had no major influence upon the result.     

Cryptic herbivores mediate the strength and form of ungulate impacts on a long-lived savanna tree

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse array of herbivores that impose demographic filters throughout their life cycle. Few studies, however, simultaneously quantify the impacts of multiple herbivore guilds on the lifetime performance or population growth rate of plants. In African savannas, large ungulates (such as elephants) are widely regarded as important drivers of woody plant population dynamics, while the potential impacts of smaller, more cryptic herbivores (such as rodents) have largely been ignored. We combined a large-scale ungulate exclusion experiment with a five-year manipulation of rodent densities to quantify the impacts of three herbivore guilds (wild ungulates, domestic cattle, and rodents) on all life stages of a widespread savanna tree. We utilized demographic modeling to reveal the overall role of each guild in regulating tree population dynamics, and to elucidate the importance of different demographic hurdles in driving population growth under contrasting consumer communities. We found that wild ungulates dramatically reduced population growth, shifting the population trajectory from increase to decline, but that the mechanisms driving these effects were strongly mediated by rodents. The impact of wild ungulates on population growth was predominantly driven by their negative effect on tree reproduction when rodents were excluded, and on adult tree survival when rodents were present. By limiting seedling survival, rodents also reduced population growth; however, this effect was strongly dampened where wild ungulates were present. We suggest that these complex interactions between disparate consumer guilds can have important consequences for the population demography of long-lived species, and that the effects of a single consumer group are often likely to vary dramatically depending on the larger community in which interactions are embedded.     

Approaches to integrated water resource development and management

In southern Africa institutional capacity in the water sector is severely limited by diminishing regular budget and external assistance allocations. The result has been an overall decline in operational water resource management. This is ironic given the international community's current concern with 'integrated' or 'comprehensive' water resources management. Often, so-called integrated attempts at river basin planning and development have been conceived within the framework of a river basin authority or regional master plans. Such large-scale attempts have not necessarily been compatible either with the national capacity in water resources management or the existing institutional and legislative frameworks. In many cases the actual integration of a basin's physical resources and social, economic and environmental demands is poorly executed. To examine a way forward in resolving what is clearly an unsustainable state of affairs, a diagnostic study of the Kafue Basin, Zambia, was carried out in order to identify a set of water resource management options for a basin currently under stress. A physical framework for the Kafue Basin was established and principal subcatchments and hydro-geological subsystems identified. Current water resource issues in the basin are discussed and a multiobjective approach is proposed to allow intersectoral competition for the basin's limited water resources to be reconciled.     

Identification of chlordane compounds in harbour seals from the coastal waters of the Netherlands

In a study of two unknown compounds in blubber of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) of the Dutch North Sea coast combined capillary gas chromaiographic mass spectrometric data indicated the presence of trans-nonachlor and oxychlordane. These compounds have never been identified in environmental biota in The Netherlands before.