Land cover changes as impacted by spatio-temporal rainfall variability along the Ethiopian Rift Valley escarpment

Magnitudes of land cover changes nowadays can be assessed properly, but their driving forces are subject to many discussions. Next to the accepted role of human influence, the impact of natural climate variability is often neglected. In this paper, the impact of rainfall variability on land cover changes (LCC) is investigated for the western escarpment of the Raya Graben along the northern Ethiopian Rift Valley. First, LCC between 2000 and 2014 were analysed at specific time steps using Landsat imagery. Based on the obtained LCC maps, the link was set with rainfall variability, obtained by means of the satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFEs) from NOAA-CPC. After a correction by the incorporation of local meteorological station data, these estimates prove to be good estimators for the actual amount of precipitation (ρ _RFE1.0 = 0.85, p = 0.00, n = 126; ρ _RFE2.0 = 0.76, p = 0.00, n = 934). By performing several linear regression analyses, a significant positive relationship between the precipitation parameter DIFF 5Y (i.e. the at-RFE pixel scale difference in five-year average annual precipitation for the two periods preceding the land cover maps) and the changes in the woody vegetation cover was found (standardised regression coefficient β = 0.23, p = 0.02, n = 108). Despite the dominance of direct human impact, further greening of the study area can be expected for the future concomitantly to a wetter climate, if all other factors remain constant.     

Is Levoglucosan a Suitable Quantitative Tracer for Wood Burning? Comparison with Receptor Modeling on Trace Elements in Lycksele,Sweden

Abstract

Particle emissions from residential wood combustion in small communities in Northern Sweden can sometimes increase the ambient particle concentrations to levels comparable to densely trafficked streets in the center of large cities. The reason for this is the combination of increased need for domestic heating during periods of low temperatures, leading to higher emission rates, and stable meteorological conditions. In this work, the authors compare two different approaches to quantify the wood combustion contribution to fine particles in Northern Sweden: a multivariate source-receptor analysis on inorganic compounds followed by multiple linear regression (MLR) of fine particle concentrations and levoglucosan used as a tracer. From the receptor model, it can be seen that residential wood combustion corresponds with 70% of modeled particle mass. Smaller contributions are also seen from local nonexhaust traffic particles, road dust, and brake wear (each contributing 14%). Of the mass, 1.5% is explained by long-distance transported particles, and 2% derives from a regional source deriving from either oil combustion or smelter activities.

In samples collected in ambient air, a significant linear correlation was found between wood burning particles and levoglucosan. The levoglucosan fraction in the ambient fine particulate matter attributed to wood burning according to the multivariate analysis ranged from <2% to 50%. This is much higher than the fraction found in the emission from the boilers expected to be responsible for most emissions at this site (between 3% and 6%). A laboratory emission study of wood and pellet boilers gave 0.3%_wt to 22%_wt levoglucosan to particle mass, indicating that the levoglucosan fraction may be highly dependent on combustion conditions, making it uncertain to use it as a quantitative tracer under real-world burning conditions. Thus, quantitative estimates of wood burning contributions will be very uncertain using solely levoglucosan as a tracer.     

Past changes in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, climate and UV radiation

At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 degrees C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the "Little Ice Age spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic conditions that are apparently without precedent during the Pleistocene is likely to be considerable, particularly as their exposure to co-occurring environmental changes (such as enhanced levels of UV-B, deposition of nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere, heavy metal and acidic pollution, radioactive contamination, increased habitat fragmentation) is also without precedent.     

Establishing principal soil quality parameters influencing earthworms in urban soils using bioassays

Potential contamination at ex-industrial sites means that, prior to change of use, it will be necessary to quantify the extent of risks to potential receptors. To assess ecological hazards, it is often suggested to use biological assessment to augment chemical analyses. Here we investigate the potential of a commonly recommended bioassay, the earthworm reproduction test, to assess the status of urban contaminated soils. Sample points at all study sites had contaminant concentrations above the Dutch soil criteria Target Values. In some cases, the relevant Intervention Values were exceeded. Earthworm survival at most points was high, but reproduction differed significantly in soil from separate patches on the same site. When the interrelationships between soil parameters and reproduction were studied, it was not possible to create a good model of site soil toxicity based on single or even multiple chemical measurements of the soils. We thus conclude that chemical analysis alone is not sufficient to characterize soil quality and confirms the value of biological assays for risk assessment of potentially contaminated soils.     

Central power generation versus distributed generation – An air quality assessment in the South Coast Air Basin of California

This study assesses the air quality impacts of central power generation and compares them with the impacts of distributed generation (DG). The central power plant emissions factors used are from a newly installed combined cycle gas turbine system. Because location of power plants is a key parameter affecting air quality impacts, this study considers three potential locations for the installation of central power plants. Air quality impacts are evaluated for the South Coast Air Basin of California, in the year 2010, using a three-dimensional air quality model. Results are compared to air quality impacts from two potential DG scenarios to meet the same power demand as that of the central power plant case.Even though emissions from central generation are lower than emissions from the DG technology mix considered herein, central generation concentrates emissions in a small area, whereas DG spreads emissions throughout a larger cross-section of the air basin. As a result, air quality impacts from central generation are more significant than those from DG. The study also shows that assessment of air quality impacts from distributed and central generation should not only consider emissions levels, but also the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions and the air quality that results from atmospheric chemistry and transport – highly non-linear processes.Finally, analysis of population exposure to ozone and PM_2.5 shows that central generation located in coastal areas upwind from populated areas would cause the highest population exposure and even though emissions from central generation are considerably lower than DG emissions spread throughout the basin, results show that central generation causes a higher pollutant exposure than DG.     

Subjective Annoyance Response to Diesel Engine Sound During Idling Conditions

Subjective annoyance response to diesel engine sound during idling conditions was evaluated by 80 participants. Eight different sound spectra were presented to the participants at a constant level of 80 dB(A) in a paired comparison procedure. Stereo-recorded sound stimuli were played back through a pair of loudspeakers in an anechoic room. Four objective parameters of loudness, sharpness, impulsiveness, and roughness were found to be the determining factors that cause subjective annoyance. An annoyance prediction model for the test stimuli of an idling diesel engine was developed on the basis of these factors. The objective parameters and their interactions have a significant effect on the annoyance prediction model. The spectral distribution indicated by test participants to be pleasant can be used as a basis for appropriate modification of engine sound. A single microphone measurement in free field conditions can be used to estimate objective parameters for defining the cause of annoyance.     

New tools in local energy planning: experimenting with scenarios,public participation and environmental assessment

This article presents a model for local energy planning and its application in a full-scale experiment in a Swedish municipality. The model is based on legal requirement, research findings and standards of good practice and includes a combination of analytical and procedural tools intended to support rational decision-making: external scenarios, a citizens’ panel, life cycle analysis and qualitative environmental assessment (EA). The application of the model indicates that the decision-support tools selected can give several new and valuable inputs to local energy planning, such as local knowledge and values through citizen dialogue and comprehensive EAs. However, the experiment also shows that there are several challenges involved in applying the tools, for example, it is difficult to get citizens and the industry to participate and that it is complicated to combine several different tools for decision-making into a single planning process. Moreover, the experiences from the application suggest that the model for local energy planning show great potential but needs to be improved before it can be used as a standard of good practice.     

Risk and vulnerability analysis: A feasible process for local climate adaptation in Sweden?

Climate change is an important new challenge for local authorities. This study analyses the potential for using the Swedish mandatory process for risk and vulnerability analysis (RVA) as a vehicle to improve local climate adaptation work. An advantage with RVA is its comprehensive approach in dealing with all relevant threats and all vital functions of society. In order to test the applicability of incorporating climate adaptation into RVA, we studied practical experiences from three Swedish municipalities. In all municipalities, a pre-study to identify relevant climate-induced events was performed. In one municipality, this was followed by a more detailed analysis of the potential impacts of these events on the functions of the various administrations and companies within the local authority. Problems identified in successful integration of climate change into the municipal RVA process were lack of sufficient knowledge to identify the impacts of climate change on the level of the respective specialist or district administration and lack of resources to perform the analysis. There were also some difficulties in including a long-term perspective relevant for climate adaptation into RVA, which usually focuses on current threats. A positive outcome was that work on extreme climate events in RVA provided a traceable method to identify events with a potentially great impact on the function of local society and results that could be fed into other ongoing processes, such as spatial planning and housing plans.