On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-020-01385-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Nonthermal GSM RF and ELF EMF effects upon rat BBB permeability

Since the late 1980s, our group has examined the effects of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF), including pulse-modulated waves of the type emitted by mobile phones, upon the blood?Cbrain barrier. In more than 2,000 rats, we have repeatedly demonstrated a passage of the rats?? own albumin from the blood through the brain capillaries into the surrounding brain parenchyma at SAR values down to 0.1mW/kg. In most of these experiments, the animals were exposed in TEM-cells, ventilated by an external electrical fan at 50 Hz. In the present study, we examined whether the extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic fields from the fan (50 Hz, 0.3?C1.5 ??T) might add to the RF effect. Sixty-four rats were divided into 4 groups: RF only, ELF only and RF + ELF exposure plus a sham group. The GSM-900 MHz RF exposure was at the very low, nonthermal, average whole-body SAR level 0.4 mW/kg. Demonstration of the normally occurring albumin extravasation in the basal hypothalamus is our inbuilt control proving that the staining is reliable. Two full series of staining of the whole material gave negative results for hypothalamus. Not until we changed to avidin, biotin, and antibodies from a third supplier, we received an acceptable staining. Twenty-five percent of the RF animals had a pathological albumin leakage, while the ELF and RF + ELF groups with three and two pathological findings, respectively, were not significantly different from the control group. We conclude that the use of external fans has had no major influence upon the result.     

Cryptic herbivores mediate the strength and form of ungulate impacts on a long-lived savanna tree

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse array of herbivores that impose demographic filters throughout their life cycle. Few studies, however, simultaneously quantify the impacts of multiple herbivore guilds on the lifetime performance or population growth rate of plants. In African savannas, large ungulates (such as elephants) are widely regarded as important drivers of woody plant population dynamics, while the potential impacts of smaller, more cryptic herbivores (such as rodents) have largely been ignored. We combined a large-scale ungulate exclusion experiment with a five-year manipulation of rodent densities to quantify the impacts of three herbivore guilds (wild ungulates, domestic cattle, and rodents) on all life stages of a widespread savanna tree. We utilized demographic modeling to reveal the overall role of each guild in regulating tree population dynamics, and to elucidate the importance of different demographic hurdles in driving population growth under contrasting consumer communities. We found that wild ungulates dramatically reduced population growth, shifting the population trajectory from increase to decline, but that the mechanisms driving these effects were strongly mediated by rodents. The impact of wild ungulates on population growth was predominantly driven by their negative effect on tree reproduction when rodents were excluded, and on adult tree survival when rodents were present. By limiting seedling survival, rodents also reduced population growth; however, this effect was strongly dampened where wild ungulates were present. We suggest that these complex interactions between disparate consumer guilds can have important consequences for the population demography of long-lived species, and that the effects of a single consumer group are often likely to vary dramatically depending on the larger community in which interactions are embedded.     

Approaches to integrated water resource development and management

In southern Africa institutional capacity in the water sector is severely limited by diminishing regular budget and external assistance allocations. The result has been an overall decline in operational water resource management. This is ironic given the international community's current concern with 'integrated' or 'comprehensive' water resources management. Often, so-called integrated attempts at river basin planning and development have been conceived within the framework of a river basin authority or regional master plans. Such large-scale attempts have not necessarily been compatible either with the national capacity in water resources management or the existing institutional and legislative frameworks. In many cases the actual integration of a basin's physical resources and social, economic and environmental demands is poorly executed. To examine a way forward in resolving what is clearly an unsustainable state of affairs, a diagnostic study of the Kafue Basin, Zambia, was carried out in order to identify a set of water resource management options for a basin currently under stress. A physical framework for the Kafue Basin was established and principal subcatchments and hydro-geological subsystems identified. Current water resource issues in the basin are discussed and a multiobjective approach is proposed to allow intersectoral competition for the basin's limited water resources to be reconciled.     

Identification of chlordane compounds in harbour seals from the coastal waters of the Netherlands

In a study of two unknown compounds in blubber of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) of the Dutch North Sea coast combined capillary gas chromaiographic mass spectrometric data indicated the presence of trans-nonachlor and oxychlordane. These compounds have never been identified in environmental biota in The Netherlands before.     

Gravity orientation in social wasp comb cells (Vespinae) and the possible role of embedded minerals

Social wasps and hornets maintain their nest in the dark. The building of the combs by all Vespinae is always in the direction of the gravitational force of Earth, and in each cell's ceiling, at least one 'keystone' is embedded and fastened by saliva. The sensory mechanisms that enable both building of sizeable symmetrical combs and nursing of the brood in the darkness merit investigation, and the aim of the present study was to identify and characterize the 'keystones' that exist in the ceiling and in the walls of the social wasp comb cells. Bio-ferrography was used to isolate magnetic particles on slides. These slides, as well as original cells, were analyzed in an environmental scanning electron microscope by a variety of analytical tools. It was found that both the roof and the walls of each comb cell bear minerals, like ferrites, as well as Ti and Zr. The latter two elements are less abundant in the soil around the nest. Ti and Zr are known to reflect infrared (IR) light. IR imaging showed a thermoregulatory center in the dorsal thorax of the adult Oriental hornet. It is not known yet whether these insects can sense IR light.     

Statistical and Hybrid Methods Implemented in a Web Application for Predicting Reservoir Inflows during Flood Events

Reservoir management is a critical component of flood management, and information on reservoir inflows is particularly essential for reservoir managers to make real‐time decisions given that flood conditions change rapidly. This study's objective is to build real‐time data‐driven services that enable managers to rapidly estimate reservoir inflows from available data and models. We have tested the services using a case study of the Texas flooding events in the Lower Colorado River Basin in November 2014 and May 2015, which involved a sudden switch from drought to flooding. We have constructed two prediction models: a statistical model for flow prediction and a hybrid statistical and physics‐based model that estimates errors in the flow predictions from a physics‐based model. The study demonstrates that the statistical flow prediction model can be automated and provides acceptably accurate short‐term forecasts. However, for longer term prediction (2 h or more), the hybrid model fits the observations more closely than the purely statistical or physics‐based prediction models alone. Both the flow and hybrid prediction models have been published as Web services through Microsoft's Azure Machine Learning (AzureML) service and are accessible through a browser‐based Web application, enabling ease of use by both technical and nontechnical personnel.     

Calibration and Validation of Far Field Dilution Models for Outfall at Worli, Mumbai

The city of Mumbai, India with a population of 15 million discharges about 2225 MLD of domestic wastewater after partial treatment to adjoining marine water body. Under the Mumbai Sewage Disposal Project Scheme, sewage is being disposed to the west coast at Worli and Bandra through 3.4 kms long submarine outfalls. A field study was conducted at recently commissioned outfall diffuser location at Worli, at the onset of neap flood tide to study the dispersion patterns and measure the far field dilutions using radio and dye tracers. Estimated dilutions using different tracers were compared with outputs from an empirical model (Brooks) and a 2D numerical model (DIVAST). Validation using parameters such as BOD and FC, indicated a good match for BOD in near field compared to FC. The radiotracer ⁸²Br and Rhodamine WT generally gave good correlation with Brooks' and DIVAST models for nearfield, however at further distances predictions were not accurate.     

Impacts of Variable Climate and Effluent Flows on the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer

Assessing groundwater resources in the arid and semiarid borderlands of the United States and Mexico represents a challenge for land and water managers, particularly in the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer (TSCA). Population growth, residential construction, and industrial activities have increased groundwater demand in the TSCA, in addition to wastewater treatment and sanitation demands. These activities, coupled with climate variability, influence the hydrology of the TSCA and emphasize the need for groundwater assessment tools for decision‐making purposes. This study assesses the impacts of changes in groundwater demand, effluent discharge, and climate uncertainties within the TSCA from downstream of the Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant to the northern boundary of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area. We use a conceptual water budget model to analyze the long‐term impact of the different components of potential recharge and water losses within the aquifer. Modeling results project a future that ranges from severe long‐term drying to positive wetting. This research improves the understanding of the impact of natural and anthropogenic variables on water sustainability, with an accessible methodology that can be globally applied.