Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

BETR global--a geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15° × 15° grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).     

Transportation noise and exposed population of an urban area in the Republic of Korea

Using noise prediction models, we explored the transportation noise levels of Youngdeungpo-gu, an urbanized area of Seoul Metropolitan City in the Republic of Korea. In addition, we estimated the population exposed to transportation noise levels and determined how many people are vulnerable to noise levels that would cause serious annoyance and sleep disturbance. Compared with the World Health Organization [WHO] recommended levels, the daytime and nighttime transportation noise levels were still high enough to have the two psychosocial effects on people when considering the recommended levels of the World Health Organization (WHO; 55 decibels [dB[A]] and 40 dB[A] for daytime and nighttime, respectively). Particularly, nighttime transportation noise was discovered to be harmful to a wider area and more people than daytime noise. Approximately 91% of the Youngdeungpo-gu area experienced nighttime transportation noise levels exceeding those recommended by WHO. It was estimated that as much as 80% of the people in the study area were exposed to transportation noise levels >40 dB[A] during nighttime. Taking this into account, there is an urgent need to control and reduce transportation noise levels in Seoul, to protect residents against the potential ill health effects caused by urban transportation.     

The adsorption of short single-stranded DNA oligomers to mineral surfaces

We studied the adsorption of short single-stranded deoxyribonucleic acid (ssDNA) oligomers, of approximately 30 nucleotides (nt) in length, of varying sequence, adenine + guanine + cytosine (AGC) content, and propensity to form secondary structure, to equal surface area samples of olivine, pyrite, calcite, hematite, and rutile in 0.1 M NaCl, 0.05 M pH 8.1 KHCO₃ buffer. Although the mineral surfaces have widely varying points of zero charge, under these conditions they show remarkably similar adsorption of ssDNA regardless of oligomer characteristics. Mineral surfaces appear to accommodate ssDNA comparably, or ssDNA oligomers of this length are able to find binding sites of comparable strength and density due to their flexibility, despite the disparate surface properties of the different minerals. This may partially be due charge shielding by the ionic strength of the solutions tested, which are typical of many natural environments. These results may have some bearing on the adsorption and accumulation of biologically derived nucleic acids in sediments as well as the abiotic synthesis of nucleic acids before the origin of life.     

Mortality of US pentachlorophenol production workers through 2005

A cohort of 2122 US pentachlorophenol (PCP) production workers from four plants in the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Dioxin Registry was exposed to PCP and to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofuran contaminants of PCP production. A subcohort of 720 was also exposed to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzodioxin, a contaminant of trichlorophenol (TCP) while using TCP or a TCP derivative. PCP and several production contaminants have been implicated as animal carcinogens. A priori hypotheses were that the cohort would have elevated standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for aplastic anemia, soft-tissue sarcoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, as suggested by human studies, and for leukemia and liver, adrenal, thyroid, and parathyroid cancer, as suggested by animal studies. From 1940 to 2005 1165 deaths occurred with an overall SMR of 1.01 [95% confidence limits (CI), 0.95-1.07]. Overall cancer mortality (326 deaths, SMR 1.17, CI 1.05-1.31) was in statistically significant excess. There were excess deaths for trachea, bronchus and lung cancers (126 deaths, SMR 1.36, CI 1.13-1.62), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (17 deaths, SMR 1.77, CI 1.03-2.84), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (63 deaths, SMR 1.38, CI 1.06-1.77), and medical complications (5 deaths, SMR 3.52, CI 1.14-8.22). In race- and sex-specific analyses, white males had increased non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality (17 deaths, SMR 1.98, CI 1.15-3.17) and males of other races had increased leukemia mortality (four deaths, SMR 4.57, CI 1.25-11.7). The excess of cancers of a priori interest, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and leukemia, provide some support for the carcinogenicity of PCP, however, further studies with more detailed exposure assessment are needed.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides in local waterbird eggs from Hong Kong: risk assessment to local waterbirds

The contamination status of the marine environment in Hong Kong was studied by measuring concentrations of organochlorine (OC) pollutants (i.e., hexachlorobenzene, aldrin, dieldrin, endrin, mirex, total heptachlor, total chlordane, total DDTs, total PCBs, and total toxaphenes) in the eggs of selected waterbird species from different locations around the city: Little Egret (Egretta garzetta) and Chinese Pond Heron (Ardeola bacchus) from Mai Po Village, Great Egret (Ardea alba) and Black-crowned Night Heron (Nycticorax nycticorax) from A Chau, and Chinese Pond Heron (A. bacchus) from Ho Sheung Heung. The mean concentrations of total PCBs and total DDTs ranged from 191-11 100 ng g⁻¹ lipid and 453-49 000 ng g⁻¹ lipid, respectively. Recent exposure of waterbirds to technical chlordane was found in Hong Kong. The risk characterization demonstrated potential risks to birds associated with exposure to DDE, which was found to cause a reduction in survival of young in Hong Kong Ardeids based on the endpoint in the risk assessment.     

Assessment of bisphenol A released from reusable plastic, aluminium and stainless steel water bottles

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a ubiquitous high volume industrial chemical that is an estrogen and an environmental endocrine disrupting chemical. Bisphenol A is used extensively in the production of consumer goods, polycarbonate plastics, epoxy resins and coatings used to line metallic food and beverage cans. There is great concern regarding the possible harmful effects from exposures that result from BPA leaching into foods and beverages from packaging or storage containers. The objective of this study was to independently assess whether BPA contamination of water was occurring from different types of reusable drinking bottles marketed as alternatives to BPA-containing polycarbonate plastics. Using a sensitive and quantitative BPA-specific competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay we evaluated whether BPA migrated into water stored in polycarbonate or copolyester plastic bottles, and different lined or unlined metallic reusable water bottles. At room temperature the concentration of BPA migrating from polycarbonate bottles ranged from 0.2 to 0.3 mg L⁻¹. Under identical conditions BPA migration from aluminium bottles lined with epoxy-based resins was variable depending on manufacturer ranging from 0.08 to 1.9 mg L⁻¹. Boiling water significantly increased migration of BPA from the epoxy lined bottles. No detectable BPA contamination was observed in water stored in bottles made from Tritan™ copolyester plastic, uncoated stainless steel, or aluminium lined with EcoCare™. The results from this study demonstrate that when used according to manufacturers’ recommendations reusable water bottles constructed from “BPA-free” alternative materials are suitable for consumption of beverages free of BPA contamination.     

Modeling the Relations Between Flow Regime Components,Species Traits,and Spawning Success of Fishes in Warmwater Streams

Modifications to stream hydrologic regimes can have a profound influence on the dynamics of their fish populations. Using hierarchical linear models, we examined the relations between flow regime and young-of-year fish density using fish sampling and discharge data from three different warmwater streams in Illinois, Alabama, and Georgia. We used an information theoretic approach to evaluate the relative support for models describing hypothesized influences of five flow regime components representing: short-term high and low flows; short-term flow stability; and long-term mean flows and flow stability on fish reproductive success during fish spawning and rearing periods. We also evaluated the influence of ten fish species traits on fish reproductive success. Species traits included spawning duration, reproductive strategy, egg incubation rate, swimming locomotion morphology, general habitat preference, and food habits. Model selection results indicated that young-of-year fish density was positively related to short-term high flows during the spawning period and negatively related to flow variability during the rearing period. However, the effect of the flow regime components varied substantially among species, but was related to species traits. The effect of short-term high flows on the reproductive success was lower for species that broadcast their eggs during spawning. Species with cruiser swimming locomotion morphologies (e.g., Micropterus) also were more vulnerable to variable flows during the rearing period. Our models provide insight into the conditions and timing of flows that influence the reproductive success of warmwater stream fishes and may guide decisions related to stream regulation and management.     

The Development of an Ecosystem Services Framework for South East Queensland

Extensive research has been conducted globally into conceptual frameworks for ecosystem services, the most notable being the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Millennium ecosystem assessment: ecosystems and human well-being; a framework for assessment. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, pp 51, 53–55, 2005). The South East Queensland (SEQ) Ecosystem Services Framework (Australia) aims to provide the tools to enable government, industry, business, researchers, non-government organizations and land managers to apply the concept of ecosystem services in their planning and management practices. This article describes the Framework and the process that has produced matrices and maps that identify and illustrate the linkages between ecosystems, ecosystem functions, ecosystem services and the community’s well-being. The matrices and maps derived can identify areas in the region where the most ecosystem services are generated. This allows areas to be considered as valuable natural assets of the region, deserving appropriate protection measures or significant offsets if they are diminished or degraded in any way. Although the Framework requires further refinement and ongoing development, the process applied and the products produced has enabled decision makers to turn the concept of ecosystem services into practical application in SEQ.     

Landscape-Based Assessment of Human Disturbance for Michigan Lakes

Assessment of lake impairment status and identification of threats’ type and source is essential for protection of intact, enhancement of modified, and restoration of impaired lakes. For regions in which large numbers of lakes occur, such assessment has usually been done for only small fractions of lakes due to resource and time limitation. This study describes a process for assessing lake impairment status and identifying which human disturbances have the greatest impact on each lake for all lakes that are 2 ha or larger in the state of Michigan using readily available, georeferenced natural and human disturbance databases. In-lake indicators of impairment are available for only a small subset of lakes in Michigan. Using statistical relationships between the in-lake indicators and landscape natural and human-induced measures from the subset lakes, we assessed the likely human impairment condition of lakes for which in-lake indicator data were unavailable using landscape natural and human disturbance measures. Approximately 92% of lakes in Michigan were identified as being least to marginally impacted and about 8% were moderately to heavily impacted by landscape human disturbances. Among lakes that were heavily impacted, more inline lakes (92%) were impacted by human disturbances than disconnected (6%) or headwater lakes (2%). More small lakes were impacted than medium to large lakes. For inline lakes, 90% of the heavily impacted lakes were less than 40 ha, 10% were between 40 and 405 ha, and 1% was greater than 405 ha. For disconnected and headwater lakes, all of the heavily impacted lakes were less than 40 ha. Among the anthropogenic disturbances that contributed the most to lake disturbance index scores, nutrient yields and farm animal density affected the highest number of lakes, agricultural land use affected a moderate number of lakes, and point-source pollution and road measures affected least number of lakes. Our process for assessing lake condition represents a significant advantage over other routinely used methods. It permits the evaluation of lake condition across large regions and yields an overall disturbance index that is a physicochemical and biological indicator weighted sum of multiple disturbance factors. The robustness of our approach can be improved with increased availability of high-resolution disturbance datasets.