INCORPORATING NATURAL VARIABILITY,UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK INTO WATER QUALITY EVALUATIONS USING DURATION CURVES1

ABSTRACT: Quantifying natural variability, uncertainty, and risk with minimal data is one of the greatest challenges facing those engaged in water quality evaluations, such as development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL), because of regulatory, natural, and analytical constraints. Quantification of uncertainty and variability in natural systems is illustrated using duration curves (DCs), plots that illustrate the percent of time that a particular flow rate (FDC), concentration (CDC), or load rate (LDC; “TMDL”) is exceeded, and are constructed using simple derived distributions. Duration curves require different construction methods and interpretations, depending on whether there is a statistically significant correlation between concentration (C) and flow (Q), and on the sign of the C‐Q regression slope (positive or negative). Flow DCs computed from annual runoff data vary compared with an FDC developed using all data. Percent exceedance for DCs can correspond to risk; however, DCs are not composed of independent quantities. Confidence intervals of data about a regression line can be used to develop confidence limits for the CDC and LDC. An alternate expression to a fixed TMDL is suggested as the risk of a load rate being exceeded and lying between confidence limits. Averages over partial ranges of DCs are also suggested as an alternative expression of TMDLs. DCs can be used to quantify watershed response in terms of changes in exceedances, concentrations, and load rates after implementation of best management practices.     

USE OF STAGE DATA TO CHARACTERIZE HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN AN URBANIZING ENVIRONMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of a study on the use of continuous stage data to describe the relation between urban development and three aspects of hydrologic condition that are thought to influence stream ecosystems—overall stage variability, stream flashiness, and the duration of extreme‐stage conditions. This relation is examined using data from more than 70 watersheds in three contrasting environmental settings—the humid Northeast (the metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts, area); the very humid Southeast (the metropolitan Birmingham, Alabama, area); and the semiarid West (the metropolitan Salt Lake City, Utah, area). Results from the Birmingham and Boston studies provide evidence linking increased urbanization with stream flashiness. Fragmentation of developed land cover patches appears to ameliorate the effects of urbanization on overall variability and flashiness. There was less success in relating urbanization and streamflow conditions in the Salt Lake City study. A related investigation of six North Carolina sites with long term discharge and stage data indicated that hydrologic condition metrics developed using continuous stage data are comparable to flow based metrics, particularly for stream flashiness measures.     

THE MISUSE OF HYDROLOGIC UNIT MAPS FOR EXTRAPOLATION,REPORTING, AND ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The use of watersheds to conduct research on land/water relationships has expanded recently to include both extrapolation and reporting of water resource information and ecosystem management. More often than not, hydrologic units (HUs) are used for these purposes, with the implication that hydrologic units are synonymous with watersheds. Whereas true topographic watersheds are areas within which apparent surface water drains to a particular point, generally only 45 percent of all hydrologic units, regardless of their hierarchical level, meet this definition. Because the area contributing to the downstream point in many hydrologic units extends far beyond the unit boundaries, use of the hydrologic unit framework to show regional and national patterns of water quality and other environmental resources can result in incorrect and misleading illustrations. In this paper, the implications of this misuse are demonstrated using four adjacent HUs in central Texas. A more effective way of showing regional patterns in environmental resources is by using data from true watersheds representative of different ecological regions containing particular mosaics of geographical characteristics affecting differences in ecosystems and water quality.     

ECONOMIC COSTS AND BENEFITS OF INSTREAM FLOW PROTECTION FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES IN AN INTERNATIONAL BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) restricts federal agencies from carrying out actions that jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered species. The U.S. Supreme Court has emphasized that the language of the ESA and its amendments permits few exceptions to the requirement to give endangered species the highest priority. This paper estimates economic costs associated with one measure for increasing instream flows to meet critical habitat requirements of the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow. Impacts are derived from an integrated regional model of the hydrology, economics, and institutions of the upper Rio Grande Basin in Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico. One proposal for providing minimum streamflows to protect the silvery minnow from extinction would provide guaranteed year round streamflows of at least 50 cubic feet per second in the San Acacia reach of the upper Rio Grande. These added flows can be accomplished through reduced surface diversions by New Mexico water users in dry years when flows would otherwise be reduced below the critical level required by the minnow. Based on a 44‐year simulation of future inflows to the basin, we find that some agricultural users suffer damages, but New Mexico water users as a whole do not incur damages from a policy that reduces stream depletions sufficiently to provide habitat for the minnow. The same policy actually benefits downstream users, producing average annual benefits of over $200,000 per year for west Texas agriculture, and over $1 million for El Paso municipal and industrial water users, respectively. Economic impacts of instream flow deliveries for the minnow are highest in drought years.     

Book reviews

Making Cities Work: the role of local government in the urban environment. Richard Gilbert, Don Stevenson, Herbert Girardet & Richard Stren, 1996, London, Earthscan, 203pp. ISBN 1 85383 354 1, £13.95 pbk

Environmental Policy in an International Context, Vols 1-3: Perspectives, Conflicts and Prospects. P. Glasbergen & A. Blowers (Series Eds) London, Arnold

Rhetoric and Reality in Environmental Policy. M. Wintle & R. Reeve (Eds), 1994, Aldershot, Avebury Studies in Green Research, 154 pp. ISBN 1 85628 927 3

FutureNatural: Nature, Science, Culture. G. Roberston et al. (Eds) 1996, London, Routledge, ISBN 0415 070139, £40.00 hbk

Environmental Policy with Political Integration: the European Union and the United States. New horizons in environmental economics. John B. Braden, Henk Folmer & Thomas S. Ulen (Eds), 1996, Cheltenham, Elgar Publishing, 477 pp. ISBN 1 85898 217 0     

NATURAL EROSION RATES AND THEIR PREDICTION IN THE IDAHO BATHOLITH1

ABSTRACT: Natural rates of surface erosion on forested granitic soils in central Idaho were measured in 40 m² bordered erosion plots over a period of four years. In addition, we measured a variety of site variables, soil properties, and summer rainstorm intensities in order to relate erosion rates to site attributes. Median winter erosion rates are approximately twice summer period rates, however mean summer rates are nearly twice winter rates because of infrequent high erosion caused by summer rainstorms. Regression equation models and regression tree models were constructed to explore relationships between erosion and factors that control erosion rates. Ground cover is the single factor that has the greatest influence on erosion rates during both summer and winter periods. Rainstorm intensity (erosivity index) strongly influences summer erosion rates, even on soils with high ground cover percentages. Few summer storms were of sufficient duration and intensity to cause rilling on the plots, and the data set was too small to elucidate differences in rill vs. interrill erosion. The regression tree models are relatively less biased than the regression equations developed, and explained 70 and 84 percent of the variability in summer and winter erosion rates, respectively.     

Concepts for sediment restoration on the palos verdes shelf,California

This article summarizes a study conducted by the U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station to develop technical information and to evaluate the engineering feasibility of restoration alternatives for DDT-and PCB-contaminated sediments on the Palos Verdes shelf and slope near Los Angeles, California. The study evaluated the nonremoval alternative of in-place capping of contaminated sediments on the shelf and slope; removal of contaminated sediments using conventional and specialized dredging equipment and deep ocean mining equipment; treatment of contaminated sediments; and disposal of contaminated sediments in confined (diked) disposal facilities (CDFs), contained aquatic disposal (CAD) sites, upland landfills, and deep ocean basin sites. Cost estimates of the various alternatives were also prepared. This article concludes that restoration of the contaminated sediments is technically feasible. Sediments on the shelf and slope can be removed using available dredging technologies for deep water environments. In-place capping, CAD, and CDF alternatives are technically feasible. The deep ocean basin disposal alternative is not feasible from the technical or regulatory standpoint. The treatment alternative is not feasible from the implementability and economic standpoint.     

Book reviews

Earth Politics. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker, 1994, London, Zed Books, 234 pp. ISBN 1 85649 174 9, pb £14.95; hb £36.95

Greening Your Local Authority. Janice Morphet (Ed.), 1994, London, Pitman Publishing (originally Harlow, Longman), 144 pp. ISBN 0582 229 065, pb £32.50

Ecology and Society: an introduction. Luke Martell, 1994 London, Polity Press, 250 pp. ISBN 0 7456 1022 6, hb £39.50, ISBN 0 7456 1023 4, pb £11.95

The Politics of the Environment. Robert E. Goodin, 1994. Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 599 pp. ISBN 1 85278 872 0, hb £115.00

Introduction to Environmental Impact Assessment John Glasson, Riki Therivel & Andrew Chadwick, 1994, London, UCL Press, 352 pp. ISBN 1 85728 117 9, hb £45.00, ISBN 1 85728 118 7, pb £14.95

Planning for the Planet: sustainable development strategies for local and strategic plans. Friends of the Earth, 1994, London, FoE, 104 pp. ISBN 1 85750 224 8, £12.00

Environmental Strategy and Sustainable Development: the corporate challenge for the 21st century. Richard Welford, 1995, London, Routledge, 240 pp. ISBN 0 415 10551 X, hb £40.00, ISBN 0 415 10552 8, pb £12.99

Housing and the Environment: a new agenda. Mark Bhatti, Jane Brooke & Mike Gibson (Eds), 1994, Foreword by Jonathon Porritt, Coventry, Chartered Institute of Housing, 210 pp. ISBN 0 901 607 738, £14.95