Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Exposure Times to the Spring Atrazine Flush Along a Stream-Reservoir System1

Stoeckel, James A., Jade Morris, Elizabeth Ames, David C. Glover, Michael J. Vanni, William Renwick, and María J. González, 2012. Exposure Times to the Spring Atrazine Flush Along a Stream-Reservoir System. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 616-634. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00633.x Abstract: We used enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to examine reservoir-mediated shifts in spring to fall exposure of aquatic organisms to the spring atrazine pulse over four years in a Midwestern stream-reservoir system. Peak atrazine concentrations in the major inflowing stream exceeded 10 μg/l in all four years. The reservoir had a beneficial effect in two of four years by diluting atrazine below the 10 μg/l threshold. However, during the other two years, exposure times above 10 μg/l were approximately doubled in the reservoir compared to the major inflowing stream. Thresholds of 3 and 5 μg/l were exceeded during all four years in the reservoir. The uplake and downlake reservoir sites were four to five times more likely to exceed these thresholds and aquatic organisms were subjected to longer exposure times above these thresholds compared to the inflowing stream. Release of elevated atrazine concentrations from the reservoir extended exposure times in the outflowing stream. This effect was most pronounced just below the dam. Aquatic organisms upstream of the reservoir were most likely to experience acute exposures whereas organisms within and immediately downstream of the reservoir were more likely to experience chronic exposures. The ubiquity of reservoirs and the annual spring herbicide flush highlight the importance of considering the presence and relative location of reservoirs when assessing risk to aquatic communities as well as locations of drinking water intakes.     

Drag coefficient parameter estimation for aquaculture systems

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The flow conditions in and around a suspended canopy, resembling those formed by aquaculture structures such as rafts cages and longlines, were modeled using an...     

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.     

Microtargeting for conservation

Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high-resolution land-cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.     

Quantifying biases in marine-protected-area placement relative to abatable threats

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a critical defense against biodiversity loss in the world's oceans, but to realize near-term conservation benefits, they must be established where major threats to biodiversity occur and can be mitigated. We quantified the degree to which MPA establishment has targeted stoppable threats (i.e., threats that can be abated through effectively managed MPAs alone) by combining spatially explicit marine biodiversity threat data in 2008 and 2013 and information on the location and potential of MPAs to halt threats. We calculated an impact metric to determine whether countries are protecting proportionally more high- or low-threat ecoregions and compared observed values with random protected-area allocation. We found that protection covered <2% of ecoregions in national waters with high levels of abatable threat in 2013, which is ∼59% less protection in high-threat areas than if MPAs had been placed randomly. Relatively low-threat ecoregions had 6.3 times more strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature categories I–II) than high-threat ecoregions. Thirty-one ecoregions had high levels of stoppable threat but very low protection, which presents opportunities for MPAs to yield more significant near-term conservation benefits. The extent of the global MPA estate has increased, but the establishment of MPAs where they can reduce threats that are driving biodiversity loss is now urgently needed.     

Physicochemical parameters aid microbial community? A case study from marine recreational beaches,Southern India

A total of 176 (water and sediment) samples from 22 stations belonging to four different (urban, semi-urban, rural, and holy places) human habitations of Tamil Nadu beaches were collected and analyzed for physiochemical and microbial parameters during 2008–2009. Bacterial counts were two- to tenfold higher in sediments than in water due to strong bacterial aggregations by dynamic flocculation and rich organic content. The elevated bacterial communities during the monsoon explain rainfalls and several other wastes from inlands. Coliform counts drastically increased at holy and urban places due to pilgrimage and other ritual activities. Higher values of the pollution index (PI) ratio (>1) reveals, human fecal pollutions affect the water quality. The averaged PI ratio shows a substantial higher microbial contamination in holy places than in urban areas and the order of decreasing PI ratios observed were: holy places?>?urban areas?>?semi-urban areas?>?rural areas. Correlation and factor analysis proves microbial communities were not related to physicochemical parameters. Principal component analysis indicates 55.32 % of the total variance resulted from human/animal fecal matters and sewage contaminants whereas 19.95 % were related to organic contents and waste materials from the rivers. More than 80 % of the samples showed a higher fecal coliform and Streptococci by crossing the World Health Organization's permissible limits.     

Toxicodynamic modeling of 137Cs to estimate white-tailed deer background levels for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

The U.S. Department of Energy's (USDOE) Savannah River Site (SRS) is a former nuclear weapon material production and current research facility adjacent to the Savannah River in South Carolina, USA. The purpose of this study was to determine the background radiocesium (¹³⁷Cs) body burden (e.g., from global fallout) for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) inhabiting the SRS. To differentiate what the background burden is for the SRS versus ¹³⁷Cs obtained from SRS nuclear activities, data were analyzed spatially, temporally and compared to other off-site hunting areas near the SRS. The specific objectives of this study were: to compare SRS and offsite deer herds based on time and space; to interpret comparisons based on how data were collected as well as the effect of environmental and anthropogenic influences; to determine what the ecological half-life/decay rate is for ¹³⁷Cs in the SRS deer herd; and to give a recommendation to what should be considered the background ¹³⁷Cs level in the SRS deer herd. Based on the available information and analyses, it is recommended that the determination of what is considered background for the SRS deer herd be derived from data collected from the SRS deer herd itself and not offsite collections for a variety of reasons. Offsite data show extreme variability most likely due to environmental factors such as soil type and land-use patterns (e.g., forest, agriculture, residential activities). This can be seen from results where samples from offsite military bases (Fort Jackson and Fort Stewart) without anthropogenic ¹³⁷Cs sources were much higher than both the SRS and a nearby (Sandhills) study site. Moreover, deer from private hunting grounds have the potential to be baited with corn, thus artificially lowering their ¹³⁷Cs body burdens compared to other free-ranging deer. Additionally, sample size for offsite collections were not robust enough to calculate a temporal decay curve with an upper confidence level to determine if the herds are following predicted radioactive decay rates like the SRS or if the variability is due to those points described above. Using mean yearly values, the ecological half-life for ¹³⁷Cs body burdens for SRS white-tailed deer was determined to be 28.79 years—very close to the 30.2 years physical half-life.     

Assessing local planning capacity to promote environmentally sustainable residential development

Smart growth and sustainability planning have, in recent years, become central issues in planning discourse. Scholars have argued that planning capacity at the local government level is critical for smart growth planning, and that planners have a fundamental role to play in advancing local and regional sustainability. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which local planning capacity enables communities to promote more sustainable, smart growth residential development. Based on a 2013 survey of 38 county and 53 municipal governments in the state of Wisconsin, USA, this study finds that the majority of the sample communities have permitted residential developments characterized as transit-oriented, New Urbanist, mixed use, infill developments, or conservation subdivisions as alternatives to low-density, automobile-dependent conventional developments. The study also finds that jurisdictions with higher planning capacities are more likely to overcome significant barriers to more sustainable residential development.