Single-source impact analysis using three-dimensional air quality models

Isolating the effects of an individual emissions source on secondary air pollutants such as ozone and some components of particulate matter must incorporate complex nonlinear processes, be sensitive to small emissions perturbations, and account for impacts that may occur hundreds of kilometers away. The ability to evaluate these impacts is becoming increasingly important for efficient air quality management. Here, as part of a recent compliance enforcement action for a violation of the Clean Air Act and as an evaluation of ozone response to single-source emissions plumes, two three-dimensional regional photochemical air quality models are used to assess the impact on ozone from approximately 2000 to 3000 excess t/month of nitrogen oxides emitted from a single power plant in Ohio. Periods in May, July, and August are evaluated. Two sensitivity methods are applied: the "brute-force" (B-F) method and the decoupled direct method (DDM). Using DDM, maximum 1-hr averaged ozone concentrations are found to increase by up to 1.8, 1.3, and 2.2 ppbv during May, July, and August episodes, respectively, and concentration increases greater than 0.5 ppbv occur in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New York, West Virginia, Virginia, and North and South Carolina. B-F results for the August episode show a maximum 1-hr averaged ozone concentration increase of 2.3 ppbv. Significant localized decreases are also simulated, with a maximum of 3.6 ppbv in Ohio during the August episode and decreases of 0.50 ppbv and greater in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia. Maximum increases are compared with maximum decreases for the August period using second-order DDM and are found, in aggregate, to be greater in magnitude by 42%. When evaluated during hours when ozone concentrations exceed 0.060 ppm, the maximum increases in ozone are higher than decreases by 82%. The spatial extent of ozone increase in both cases is about triple that of reduction.     

Wind direction bias in generating wind roses and conducting sector-based air dispersion modeling

Certain widely used wind rose programs and air dispersion models use an overly simple data-transfer algorithm that induces a directional bias in their output products. The purpose of this paper is to provide a revised algorithm that corrects the directional bias that occurs from the aliasing that occurs when the sector widths used to report wind direction data are on the same order of magnitude, but not equal, to the sector widths used in the wind direction summaries. The directional bias issue arises when output products in 16 direction sectors (22.5 degrees each) are produced from wind direction data reported in terms of 36 sectors (10 degrees each). The result directional bias affects the results of simulations of air and surface concentrations using widely applied air dispersion models. Datasets or models with the directional bias discussed here give consistent positive biases (approximately 30%) for cardinal direction sectors (north, south, east, and west) and consistent negative biases for all of the other sectors (around -10%). Data summary and air dispersion programs providing outputs in direction sectors that do not match the observational sectors need to be checked for this bias. A revised data-transfer algorithm is provided that corrects the directional bias that can occur in transferring wind direction data between different sector widths.     

Trends in snowpack chemistry and comparison to National Atmospheric Deposition Program results for the Rocky Mountains, US, 1993–2004

Seasonal snowpack chemistry data from the Rocky Mountain region of the US was examined to identify long-term trends in concentration and chemical deposition in snow and in snow-water equivalent. For the period 1993–2004, comparisons of trends were made between 54 Rocky Mountain Snowpack sites and 16 National Atmospheric Deposition Program wetfall sites located nearby in the region. The region was divided into three subregions: Northern, Central, and Southern. A non-parametric correlation method known as the Regional Kendall Test was used. This technique collectively computed the slope, direction, and probability of trend for several sites at once in each of the Northern, Central, and Southern Rockies subregions. Seasonal Kendall tests were used to evaluate trends at individual sites.Significant trends occurred during the period in wetfall and snowpack concentrations and deposition, and in precipitation. For the comparison, trends in concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate for the two networks were in fair agreement. In several cases, increases in ammonium and nitrate concentrations, and decreases in sulfate concentrations for both wetfall and snowpack were consistent in the three subregions. However, deposition patterns between wetfall and snowpack more often were opposite, particularly for ammonium and nitrate. Decreases in ammonium and nitrate deposition in wetfall in the central and southern rockies subregions mostly were moderately significant (p<0.11) in constrast to highly significant increases in snowpack (p<0.02). These opposite trends likely are explained by different rates of declining precipitation during the recent drought (1999–2004) and increasing concentration. Furthermore, dry deposition was an important factor in total deposition of nitrogen in the region. Sulfate deposition decreased with moderate to high significance in all three subregions in both wetfall and snowpack. Precipitation trends consistently were downward and significant for wetfall, snowpack, and snow-telemetry data for the central and southern rockies subregions (p<0.03), while no trends were noted for the Northern Rockies subregion.     

Serial Correlation and Inter-annual Variability in Relation to the Statistical Power of Monitoring Schemes to Detect Trends in Fish Populations

We studied the effects of inter-annual variability and serial correlation on the statistical power of monitoring schemes to detect trends in biomass of bream (Abramis brama) in Lake Veluwemeer (The Netherlands). In order to distinguish between 'true' system variability and sampling variability we simulated the development of the bream population, using estimates for population structure and growth, and compared the resulting inter-annual variabilities and serial correlations with those from field data. In all cases the inter-annual variability in the field data was larger than in simulated data (e.g. for total biomass of all assessed bream sigma = 0.45 in field data, and sigma = 0.03-0.14 in simulated data) indicating that sampling variability decreased statistical power for detecting trends. Moreover, sampling variability obscured the inter-annual dependency (and thus the serial correlation) of biomass, which was expected because in this long-lived population biomass changes are buffered by the many year classes present. We did find the expected serial correlation in our simulation results and concluded that good survey data of long-lived fish populations should show low sampling variability and considerable inter-annual serial correlation. Since serial correlation decreases the power for detecting trends, this means that even when sampling variability would be greatly reduced, the number of sampling years to detect a change of 15%.year(-1) in bream populations (corresponding to a halving or doubling in a six-year period) would in most cases be more than six. This would imply that the six-year reporting periods that are required by the Water Framework Directive of the European Union are too short for the existing fish monitoring schemes.     

Reproductive success of monogamous and polygynous pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca)

One of the most interesting aspects of the mating system of pied flycatchers is the regular occurrence of polygyny. Here we present data on the reproductive success of polygynously paired pied flycatcher males compared to monogamous males based on paternity analyses through DNA fingerprinting. Males paired with two females suffered a higher loss in reproductive output per female compared to monogamous males due to (1) a greater proportion of unhatched eggs in their broods, (2) greater nestling mortality and (3) a greater probability of being cuckolded. Nevertheless, the number of fledglings was significantly greater for polygynous males. Based on the number of nestlings that returned for subsequent breeding seasons, however, the reproductive success of monogamous and polygynous males did not differ significantly. These data raise the question as to why males attempt polygyny. Received: 16 August 1999 / Received in revised form: 15 March 2000 / Accepted: 18 March 2000     

Training Captive-Bred or Translocated Animals to Avoid Predators

Abstract: Animal reintroductions and translocations are potentially important interventions to save species from extinction, but most are unsuccessful. Mortality due to predation is a principal cause of failure. Animals that have been isolated from predators, either throughout their lifetime or over evolutionary time, may no longer express appropriate antipredator behavior. For this reason, conservation biologists are beginning to include antipredator training in pre-release preparation procedures. We describe the evolutionary and ontogenetic circumstances under which antipredator behavior may degenerate or be lost, and we use principles from learning theory to predict which elements can be enhanced or recovered by training. The empirical literature demonstrates that training can improve antipredator skills, but the effectiveness of such interventions is influenced by a number of constraints. We predict that it will be easier to teach animals to cope with predators if they have experienced ontogenetic isolation than if they have undergone evolutionary isolation. Similarly, animals should learn more easily if they have been evolutionarily isolated from some rather than all predators. Training to a novel predator may be more successful if a species has effective responses to similar predators. In contrast, it may be difficult to teach proper avoidance behavior, or to introduce specialized predator-specific responses, if appropriate motor patterns are not already present. We conclude that pre-release training has the potential to enhance the expression of preexisting antipredator behavior. Potential training techniques involve classical conditioning procedures in which animals learn that model predators are predictors of aversive events. However, wildlife managers should be aware that problems, such as the emergence of inappropriate responses, may arise during such training.     

Parthenogenetic reproduction of Diaphanosoma celebensis (Crustacea: Cladocera): influence of salinity on feeding, survival, growth and neonate production

 Effect of salinity on the feeding rate and parthenogenetic reproduction of asexual females of the cladoceran Diaphanosoma celebensis Stingelin was studied. Short-term (10 h) grazing experiments were conducted using Isochrysis galbana as feed at 5, 17, 25 and 30 psu salinity. Gut pigment concentration showed a significantly higher rate of feeding at lower salinities. Survival, growth, maturity attainment and neonate production of asexual females reared in the above four test salinities indicated preference for lower salinities (5 and 17 psu). The mean size of adult females decreased from 909 to 593 μm, mean life span from 24 to 5 d, mean neonate production from 12 to 2 and mean size of neonates from 434 to 400 μm as the salinity increased from 5 to 30 psu. Salinity variations also affected the size and age of primiparous females. Resting egg formation and sexual reproduction did not occur at the tested salinities. The results indicate that D. celebensis is adapted to low saline, estuarine environments. Received: 14 January 2000 / Accepted: 24 March 2000     

Genetic differentiation in a pelagic crustacean (Meganyctiphanes norvegica: Euphausiacea) from the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea

Meganyctiphanes norvegica (M. Sars)is a pelagic crustacean that plays a key role in marine food webs of North Atlantic Ocean and marginal seas. We studied eight population samples collected in the European Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. By means of single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP) and direct sequencing, we investigated a segment of 158 base pairs of the mitochondrial gene coding for the subunit 1 of NADH dehydrogenase. We found 12 sequence variants among the 385 individuals studied. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that 14.75% of the total genetic variability was explained by differences between populations, thus indicating absence of panmixia for these populations. Pairwise comparisons revealed three distinct genetic pools: the first one represented by Cadiz Bay, the second one by the Ligurian Sea, and the third one included all the NE Atlantic samples. We also investigated one population from the Alboran Sea (within the Mediterranean basin, east of the Strait of Gibraltar). This population was found to be genetically intermediate between the NE Atlantic samples and the Ligurian sample, suggesting that the restriction to the gene flow is not associated with the Strait of Gibraltar, but possibly with the Oran–Almeria oceanographic front. The present work indicates that M. norvegica, although endowed with a high dispersal capacity because of its pelagic habit, can develop separate breeding units inside the same oceanic basin (the Atlantic). Furthermore, the Ligurian sample should be considered as a distinct evolutionary entity, separated from the Atlantic population. Received: 2 May 1999 / Accepted: 26 November 1999