How decisions about fitting species distribution models affect conservation outcomes

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used in conservation and land-use planning as inputs to describe biodiversity patterns. These models can be built in different ways, and decisions about data preparation, selection of predictor variables, model fitting, and evaluation all alter the resulting predictions. Commonly, the true distribution of species is unknown and independent data to verify which SDM variant to choose are lacking. Such model uncertainty is of concern to planners. We analyzed how 11 routine decisions about model complexity, predictors, bias treatment, and setting thresholds for predicted values altered conservation priority patterns across 25 species. Models were created with MaxEnt and run through Zonation to determine the priority rank of sites. Although all SDM variants performed well (area under the curve >0.7), they produced spatially different predictions for species and different conservation priority solutions. Priorities were most strongly altered by decisions to not address bias or to apply binary thresholds to predicted values; on average 40% and 35%, respectively, of all grid cells received an opposite priority ranking. Forcing high model complexity altered conservation solutions less than forcing simplicity (14% and 24% of cells with opposite rank values, respectively). Use of fewer species records to build models or choosing alternative bias treatments had intermediate effects (25% and 23%, respectively). Depending on modeling choices, priority areas overlapped as little as 10–20% with the baseline solution, affecting top and bottom priorities differently. Our results demonstrate the extent of model-based uncertainty and quantify the relative impacts of SDM building decisions. When it is uncertain what the best SDM approach and conservation plan is, solving uncertainty or considering alterative options is most important for those decisions that change plans the most.     

Kinship and social tolerance among female and juvenile wild house mice: kin bias but not kin discrimination

Kin-biased social tolerance among house mice has been interpreted in terms of kin discrimination. However, several lines of evidence suggest it may instead be an incidental artifact of group member discrimination. This leads to very different predictions about the social consequences of relatedness within and between social groups. Social interactions between wild-stock adult female and juvenile house mice (Mus domesticus) established in neighbouring territorial groups within enclosures reveal relatedness to dominant males within groups as the major factor determining social tolerance of juveniles by females. Relatedness to the female herself had no significant independent effect on responses indicating tolerance. Females were generally more aggressive toward neighbouring-group juveniles (all unrelated to females) compared with those from their own group (all related to females), but were most aggressive toward neighbouring juveniles sired by the neighbouring dominant male. They were also more aggressive toward their own-group juveniles that had been sired by the neighbouring dominant but only when encountered in the neighbouring territory and with a greater bias against female juveniles. Females were least aggressive toward own-group juveniles sired by their own-group dominant male. The sire-bias in tolerance among females is similar to that reported among the dominant males themselves in an earlier study. As a result of the combined sire-bias in tolerance by adult males and females, juveniles sired by their own-group dominant males become less likely to intrude into a neighbouring territory with time. Overall, the results suggest that differences in social tolerance reflect discrimination on the basis of social group membership rather than relatedness between interactants and thus provide strong experimental evidence in support of incidental kin bias rather than kin discrimination.     

Effects of complex waste mixtures on hepatic monooxygenase activities in brown bullheads (Ictalurus nebulosus)

Hepatic MFO components (cytochrome P-450, cytochrome b(5), and ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase, EROD) were measured in brown bullheads (Ictalurus nebulosus) inhabiting a creek receiving a complex mixture of organics and trace metals. The activities of these same enzymes were also measured in bullheads from an uncontaminated reference site to assess the relative ability of MFO parameters to serve as a biomarker of aquatic pollution. Bullheads analyzed from the polluted site had lower hepatic microsomal P-450 (p < 0.01) concentrations and similar EROD activities per mg protein as compared to bullheads from the reference site. However, analysis of enzyme turnover ratios revealed greater EROD activity per mg cytochrome P-450 (p < 0.05) in the fish from the polluted site. No difference in cytochrome b(5) activities were observed between the two groups. As compared to the reference site, bullheads collected from the polluted creek had an increased occurrence of lip and lower jaw lesions and liver damage, including elevated liver/body weight ratios. Accordingly, the monooxygenase activities measured in this study were not reliable indicators of chemical pollution or contaminant stress in bullheads in the polluted creek. Further research is needed concerning contaminant interactions, particularly among organic pollutants and metals and their effects on monooxygenase activities.     

Comparing species abundance models

Five regression models (Poisson, negative binomial, quasi-Poisson, the hurdle model and the zero-inflated Poisson) were used to assess the relationship between the abundance of a vulnerable plant species, Leionema ralstonii, and the environment. The methods differed in their capacity to deal with common properties of ecological data. They were assessed theoretically, and their predictive performance was evaluated with correlation, calibration and error statistics calculated within a bootstrap evaluation procedure that simulated performance for independent data.     

Incentive compensation as an injurious condition of work: A study of labelling

A recursive causal model is presented in which individual and work factors are hypothesized to be predictive of workers' labelling an incentive compensation program as potentially injurious to their well-being. The individual factors include the dispositional variable, negative affectivity, and financial needs and resources. The work factors consist of prior incentive compensation, experienced job insecurity, and experienced control. The model was tested using questionnaire responses of 165 managers and professionals. While it was found that the overall model did not fit the data that well, negative affectivity was found to be positively associated and experienced control negatively associated with the incentive compensation program being labelled negatively. The somewhat surprising finding that financial needs and resources were not found to be significantly associated with labelling is discussed. The importance of disposition and experienced control for the labelling of potentially threatening or harmful job conditions as well as some hypothesized antecedents of control also are discussed.     

Effects of water depth and litter accumulation on morpho-ecological adaptations of Eleocharis sphacelata

The morpho-ecological adaptations of Eleocharis sphacelata in response to water depth and the sequential effects of resultant differences in deep water conditions on the long term population dynamics were investigated based on the observations carried out in three stable homogeneous populations in Goulburn and Ourimbah, New South Wales, Australia from August 2003 to May 2005. The deep water populations attained a higher harvestable shoot biomass and a lower rhizome biomass with increased growth in root structure thus significantly enhancing the nutrient uptake rates leading to a higher accumulation of shoot bound macronutrients. However, the accretion of excessive amounts of autogenous shoot litter coupled with slower decomposition rates under anaerobic conditions in the two deep water populations led to higher nutrient enrichment in sediments and overlying water column causing subsequent eutrophication with signs of growth inhibition including typical stress symptoms like stunted growth and chlorotic shoots. The shallow water population that intermittently experienced alternative inundation-drawdown pattern depicted an unaffected continuation of seasonal growth affirming that strict water regime management practices coupled with timely mowing or the removal of accumulating litter are necessary to ensure long-term survival of healthy E. sphacelata stands when it is used in applications where deep water conditions prevail.     

Residual Cadmium and Lead Pollution at a Former Soviet Military Airfield in Tartu, Estonia

This paper presents data on the levels and dynamics of cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) concentration in the plants, soil, and groundwater of the landing corridor and airfield of a former Soviet military air base in Estonia, immediately at the end of its 40-year service in 1992 and over the following 8 yr. In 1991–92 we found high Cd concentrations in the meadow plants Trifolium pratense and Dactylis glomerata (up to 56 mg kg^-1). In 1993, the Cd concentration had dropped to 0.12–0.19 mg kg^-1, and stabilized in 1997–2000 at 0.04 mg kg^-1. Cd concentration in plants decreased significantly with increasing distance from the landing strip. Elevated Cd concentration (0.012 mg L^-1) was found in the fuel of the TU-22M (Backfire) strategic bombers. In 1991 and 1993, leaded fuel influenced the mean Pb concentration in plants (1.8–4.2 mg kg^-1). Average Pb concentration in both topsoil and the 30–40 cm soil horizon decreased between 1991 and 2000 from 28 to 6.5 and from 13.5 to 4.3 mg kg^-1, respectively. Cd concentration in the topsoil of the landingcorridor showed a significant increase between 1991 and 1993 (0.07–0.3 and 0.3–1.2 mg kg^-1, respectively), but stabilized later on the level of 0.04 mg kg^-1. The concentrations of both Pb and Cd in the soil were higher closer to the fuel bunkers. Current assessment of the movement of these metals from the vegetation to the soil and to groundwater is linked to potential leaching to the surrounding environment.