Confronting Management Challenges in Highly Uncertain Natural Resource Systems: a Robustness–Vulnerability Trade-off Approach

This paper presents a framework for the study of policy implementation in highly uncertain natural resource systems in which uncertainty cannot be characterized by probability distributions. We apply the framework to parametric uncertainty in the traditional Gordon–Schaefer model of a fishery to illustrate how performance can be sacrificed (traded-off) for reduced sensitivity and hence increased robustness, with respect to model parameter uncertainty. With sufficient data, our robustness–vulnerability analysis provides tools to discuss policy options. When less data are available, it can be used to inform the early stages of a learning process. Several key insights emerge from this analysis: (1) the classic optimal control policy can be very sensitive to parametric uncertainty, (2) even mild robustness properties are difficult to achieve for the simple Gordon–Schaefer model, and (3) achieving increased robustness with respect to some parameters (e.g., biological parameters) necessarily results in increased sensitivity (decreased robustness) with respect to other parameters (e.g., economic parameters). We thus illustrate fundamental robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and the limits to robust natural resource management. Finally, we use the framework to explore the effects of infrequent sampling and delays on policy performance.     

Greening flood protection through knowledge processes: lessons from the Markermeer dikes project in the Netherlands

Greening flood protection (GFP) is increasingly recognized as an adaptive and flexible approach to water management that is well suited to addressing uncertain futures associated with climate change. In the last decade, GFP knowledge and policies have developed rapidly, but implementation has been less successful and has run into numerous barriers. In this paper, we address the challenge of realizing green flood protection goals by specifically considering knowledge in the decision-making of a Dutch flood protection project in Lake Markermeer. In this project, an ecological knowledge arrangement and a traditional flood protection knowledge arrangement are compared and their interactions analysed. The analysis provides insight into the specific difficulties of implementing GFP measures and identifies ways to realize GFP goals. The primary challenge is twofold: First, a self-reinforcing cycle of knowledge production and decision-making in the flood protection domain inhibits the introduction of innovative and multifunctional approaches such as GFP; second, the distribution of power is severely unbalanced in terms of ecological enhancement and flood protection, favouring the latter. Implementation of GFP requires structural change and the integration of ecological and flood protection knowledge and policy. Potentially rewarding routes towards this integration are the exploration of shared interests in GFP and the creation of mutual dependency between knowledge arrangements. The case study and the insights it provides show that GFP is far from mainstream practice and that implementation requires serious effort and courage to break with historical practices.     

Prenatal diagnosis of NADH:ubiquinone oxidoreductase deficiency

NADH:ubiquinone oxidoreductase (complex I of the mitochondrial respiratory chain) deficiency is a severe disorder with an often early fatal outcome. Prenatal diagnosis for complex I defects currently relies mainly on biochemical assays of complex I in fetal tissues such as chorionic villi (CV), and is only in a minority of cases possible by means of mutational analysis of nuclear-encoded genes of complex I. We report on our experience to date with prenatal diagnosis in pregnancies at risk for complex I deficiency. We measured complex I activity in native CV and/or cultured CV in 23 pregnancies in 15 families. In accordance with the results of the investigations in CV, 15 children were born clinically unaffected. Two prenatally diagnosed unaffected fetuses and two prenatally diagnosed affected fetuses were lost prematurely with spontaneous or provoked abortions, respectively. Two affected children were born (prenatally found to be affected). In two pregnancies a discrepancy between native and cultured cells was found. We conclude that prenatal diagnosis for complex I deficiency can be reliably performed. Pitfalls were encountered in using cultured CV as a result of maternal cell contamination (MCC). Future research on pathogenic nuclear mutations underlying complex I deficiency will extend the possibilities for prenatal diagnosis at the molecular level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extension of the EUROS Integrated Air Quality Model to Fine Particulate Matter by Coupling to CACM/MADRID 2

The European Operational Smog (EUROS) integrated air quality modelling system has been extended to model fine particulate matter (PM). From an extended literature study, the Caltech Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionisation and Dissolution were selected and recently coupled to EUROS. Currently, modelling of mass and chemical composition of aerosols in two size fractions (PM_2.5 and PM_10–2.5) is possible. The chemical composition is expressed in terms of seven components: ammonium, nitrate, sulphate, elementary carbon, primary inorganic compounds, primary organic compounds and secondary organic compounds. Calculated PM₁₀ concentrations and chemical composition are presented for two summer months of the year 2003 (1 July to 31 August).     

A trail pheromone component of the African stink ant, Pachycondyla (Paltothyreus) tarsata Fabricius (Hymenoptera: Formicidae: Ponerinae)

Summary. The African stink ants (Pachycondyla tarsata) lay recruitment trails with secretions from sternal glands. The glandular secretions consist of 10 compounds, 9 of which have been chemically identified. One of the substances, 9-heptadecanone, elicits trail following behavior in P. tarsata workers that have before been stimulated by a sucessful scout ant. Received 7 August 1998; accepted 24 November 1998.     

Inter- and intra-species variation in acute zinc tolerance of field-collected cladoceran populations

Acute zinc toxicity was assessed for 10 freshwater cladoceran species collected in six different ecosystems across Europe and for two standard laboratory-reared species (Daphnia magna and Ceriodaphnia dubia). The collected organisms belonged to five different genera: Daphnia (subgenus Daphnia and Ctenodaphnia), Ceriodaphnia, Simocephalus, Acroperus and Chydorus. The 48-h EC50 of the field-collected organisms tested in standard laboratory water ranged from 375+/-141 to 4314+/-1513 microg Znl(-1). The laboratory clone of D. magna was less sensitive than the majority of the field-collected species, while our laboratory Ceriodaphnia dubia was the second most sensitive. Considerable inter-species variation was found within the genus of Ceriodaphnia (factor 6) and within the genus Daphnia (factor 8). Among the different (sub)genera tested, Chydorus and Ctenodaphnia were significantly more tolerant than the others (up to a factor 3 difference). A significant positive relationship (r2=0.67, p<0.05) between the mean cladoceran 48-h EC50 and the ambient zinc concentration of the different aquatic systems was demonstrated, suggesting a role of acclimation and/or adaptation. No significant correlation between the acute zinc tolerance and the length of the organisms was found.     

Modeling the decline of labor-sharing in the semi-desert region of Chile

Regional Environmental Change - The rapid environmental changes currently underway in many dry regions of the world, and the deep uncertainty about their consequences, underscore a critical...     

Effects of soil properties, mulch and NPK fertilizer on maize yields and nutrient budgets on ferralitic soils in southern Benin

Four on-farm experiments examined whether modest applications of fertilizers in combination with prunings from native agroforestry trees would be an alternative to maintain the fertility of ferralitic soils in Benin. An application of about 1.9 t ha⁻¹ dry matter of mulch of Senna siamea combined with 30 kg N ha⁻¹, 22 kg P ha⁻¹ and 25 kg K ha⁻¹ as compound fertilizer was compared with (1) 60 kg N ha⁻¹, 43 kg P ha⁻¹ and 50 kg K ha⁻¹ as compound fertilizer alone, (2) mulch of S. siamea alone (about 3.2 t ha⁻¹ dry matter), and (3) a control treatment. Criteria were soil properties, yields, nutrient uptakes, and nutrient budgets. Application of sole mulch had no significant effects (P>0.05) on maize yields, while combined application of prunings and NPK fertilizers or sole NPK increased yields significantly (P<0.05). The most limiting nutrient was P. The local maize cultivar was efficient in P uptake, but not in internal nutrient utilization efficiency; mulch increased significantly the internal P utilization efficiency (P<0.05). Soil properties were interpreted with the QUEFTS (quantitative evaluation of the fertility of tropical soils) computer program. The predicted and measured yields were almost the same for maize without NPK. The measured responses to NPK were much lower than the responses calculated by QUEFTS. The calculated nutrient budgets were split into balances for available nutrients and for those not immediately available (NIA). Nutrient budgets were negative for the control and sole mulch treatments, and positive for the NPK treatments. Mulch improved the balances of NIA nutrients. The present experiment could not prove that combining NPK with mulch is the best option for sustainable agriculture. It may be more economical to apply lower rates of fertilizer to local maize than those applied in the two NPK treatments in the present study.     

A simple and cheap apparatus for the controlled feeding of suspension feeders

A simple and cheap device, which allows a controlled and continuous food supply of suspension feeding animals in long term experiments, has been developed and is described.